“It’s not going to be that way. So, I just think you guys need to take a breath and relax.” This was Denny Hamlin speaking after Kyle Larson’s maximum-points day following his Kansas win. Hamlin was arguing that Larson wouldn’t be able to maintain an average finish of around 2.8. But six races into the Chase, it looks like the JGR driver is being forced to eat his words, as Jeff Gluck’s calculations suggest Hamlin was wrong. Now, he is the one chasing those astronomical averages.

“Here’s the dose of reality. I was crunching the numbers. The historic run that Kyle Larson is on, he finishes sixth today. So his average finish is 2.8, he’s also averaging though 53.7 points per race,” Jeff Gluck explained in a Dirty Mo Media clip shared on X.

This is the exact opposite of what Hamlin had predicted, and despite Chase Briscoe’s consecutive wins, he needs a miracle to catch the No. 5 team. Gluck ran the numbers for the high-flying Toyota driver, who has cut his points deficit to the Chase leader from 123 to 65 points.

“Briscoe would need to average 70 points a race in order to catch Larson if Larson kept this up. Now today he has a great day; he gets 68 points. It’s going to come down to winning at extreme level of Larson keeps up this pace. Larson gets another 49 points and that was with a sixth place finish, he had second most stage points. So if he’s going to keep doing that, it doesn’t matter.”

Ideally, Joe Gibbs Racing would’ve liked Christopher Bell or Hamlin to win those two consecutive races. Why? Because that would have put more pressure on Larson. What Briscoe has done is cut the deficit and joined his teammate in the pursuit of the HMS driver. Despite a P6 finish at Charlotte, Larson gained ground. He now holds a 49-point advantage over Hamlin and a 51-point advantage over Bell, while Briscoe remains in the mix, 65 points behind.

What’s concerning for those chasing Larson is that he has his head in the game and hasn’t let the points lead make him complacent.

“I won’t feel comfortable until it’s over. I mean obviously Briscoe winning and having a good day, you can take big chunks out (of the lead) if you win. So yeah, we’re going to go to some tracks where others are really good at, here coming up, and we just got to keep putting in days like we did today when we weren’t the fastest, but still got good points.”

Larson isn’t too concerned about winning races at this point. A strong points haul with a top-five finish would still keep him ahead of his rivals. As Gluck stated, the likes of Hamlin and Bell would need wins along with stage points to overcome the deficit. Plus, even when Larson encounters a tough break or a lengthy pit stop, his team still manages to find a way back into the race—something his direct rivals have struggled to do so far in the Chase.

“Larson fought back, re-passed Bubba Wallace after nine laps, take the lead at the end of stage 1 to win stage 1. At the same time Denny Hamlin was at the back of the field because of the issue on pit road and got no stage points. That’s ten points right there,” Jordan Bianchi added to Gluck’s analysis.

Now, these calculations by Gluck are educated guesses at best. Given the surprises we’ve seen in the 2026 Chase, we can’t rule out more twists and turns through the final stretch.