“Even though there’s a mathematical shot, as these races go by and as Larson’s having such good success, we’re losing a lot of guys,” Dale Earnhardt Jr. said recently. He can already see the championship narrative taking shape around Kyle Larson, with one strong result after another leaving fewer genuine challengers standing in his way. The Hendrick Motorsports star has every reason to embrace the attention after four straight top-five finishes. But while the media is increasingly treating him like the driver to beat, Larson himself is refusing to get caught up in the hype.
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“They just look at past results, and they’re like, Ah, you know, they just give you these good finishes and good runs. But yeah, it’s not guaranteed. So we still have to continue our processes and continue our execution, which has been amazing here to start the Chase. So yeah, I’m definitely not buying into the hype and not getting ahead of ourselves and just trying to stay focused and doing the things that we’ve done really well to this point,” Kyle Larson told SiriusXM NASCAR Radio recently.
Kyle Larson knows exactly why the championship hype has arrived. Four races into the Chase, the Hendrick Motorsports star has finished fifth, first, second and first, turning a 55-point deficit to Denny Hamlin at the start of the Chase into a 26-point lead. His Kansas victory was especially convincing, with Larson leading 235 of 267 laps and collecting the maximum 76 points.
From the outside, that kind of run naturally makes Larson look like the driver already taking control of the championship. But Larson is refusing to make the same mistake.
The No. 5 driver understands that four races of exceptional form do not guarantee what happens over the remaining six. In fact, the points system gives his rivals a very direct way to change the conversation. Larson himself indirectly pointed out that if Hamlin scores the maximum while he suffers a major problem, the advantage can disappear in a single afternoon.
That possibility becomes even more relevant with Las Vegas and Charlotte coming next. Both are 1.5-mile tracks, a type of venue where the 2026 season has given Hamlin plenty of confidence. He has the best overall record among the contenders on the traditional intermediates, with an average finish of 2.7. He has also won the last two Cup races at Las Vegas.
So while Larson arrives with the momentum, Hamlin has a track-specific argument that this could be the weekend when the championship picture changes again.
And it is not only Hamlin who can still change that picture. The entire top eight, right down to Chase Briscoe (123 points down), remains within range if someone can string together a couple of big-point finishes even while Larson produces decent results.
For instance, Joey Logano is 67 points back, Ryan Blaney trails by 91, and Briscoe is 123 behind. Those gaps are significant. But with six races remaining, a couple of high-scoring weekends can dramatically alter the standings, particularly if Larson experiences the kind of setback he has warned everyone is possible. Kansas just showed how it can happen.
Denny Hamlin finished third at Kansas and scored 51 points, which would ordinarily be a strong championship result. Yet Larson’s maximum-score performance meant Hamlin still lost 25 points to the leader. The same situation can happen with Larson in reverse.
There is a historical reminder of a lower placed driver at the start of the Chase snatching the championship, too. Tony Stewart’s 2011 championship run showed how quickly a driver can transform a Chase. Stewart entered the postseason ninth in points and winless through the regular season. He then went on to win five of the 10 Chase races and ultimately beat Carl Edwards for the championship. His comeback was extraordinary, agreed. But it demonstrated that a driver’s position several races before Homestead does not necessarily define where he will finish.
That is precisely why Larson is refusing to treat the current standings as a coronation. His lead gives him control. However, it definitely does not give him immunity. Just as he can build a huge advantage with one exceptional weekend, his rivals can start taking it apart with the same kind of run.