Denny Hamlin’s stocks were at an absolute premium heading into the Chase. He was No. 1 in the regular-season standings, praised the tracks NASCAR chose for the 2026 postseason, and was confident about going for the win at every single one of them. Three races in, however, and the No. 11 Joe Gibbs Racing driver might have reason to be concerned.
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Hamlin dropped to second in the Chase standings after last Saturday’s Bass Pro Shops Night Race, raising the question of whether this season will be yet another where he reaches a new all-time high, only to falter when it matters most. He now feels he was lucky to be leading after the first two rounds. That, however, is starting to change.
“I felt the Chase started where it was like I was really happy with Darlington, not the finish, but certainly how we were running,” Hamlin told Frontstretch on Saturday at the Kansas Speedway. “So, not quite as confident as I was going in.”
Hamlin’s Chase started with a fourth-place qualifying spot at Darlington, but he could only manage an 18th-place finish, his worst result since a 26th-place run at Sonoma in June. At Gateway, he survived the brake rotor issues that plagued several competitors to finish ninth. Then, last weekend at Bristol, he started third after qualifying was rained out and finished eighth.
These aren’t terrible results. But it’s the most critical time of the year, and Hamlin’s regular-season performances will not mean much if he underdelivers at a time when his rivals have stepped up.
Hamlin has picked up 105 points through the first three Chase races. His closest competitors, Hendrick Motorsports’ No. 5 Chevrolet driver Kyle Larson and Team Penske’s No. 22 Ford driver Joey Logano, have scored 161 and 155 points, respectively. Logano was 65 points behind Hamlin when the Chase began, but after his victory at Bristol last Saturday, he is now just 16 points behind the JGR driver.
It’s not time to throw in the towel just yet. He’s only one point behind Larson in the standings, with seven races left for Hamlin to realize his dream of winning a Cup Series championship. That’s something he acknowledged during his interview in Kansas.
“Every week is a new week. And you can come here and win the race and have your points gap right back where it was,” the 45-year-old said in the same Frontstretch interview.
Coming up next are three intermediate tracks: Kansas, Las Vegas, and Charlotte. These are layouts where Toyota has shown the most pace, looking far stronger than the other OEMs during the regular season. In fact, Hamlin took the checkered flag at the Pennzoil 400 in Las Vegas earlier this year, and a similar result in the South Point 400 could help him reclaim the top spot, provided he avoids a disaster in Kansas on Sunday.
Denny Hamlin enters this postseason knowing 2026 could be his best, and possibly last, real shot at winning a Cup Series title. He has already announced that 2027 will be his final full-time season, and NASCAR’s decision to add more wild-card road courses to next year’s playoffs could make things tougher for the veteran.
Hamlin also knows that multi-time Cup winners like Logano and Larson will pounce on any slip-up, which is why the JGR veteran is looking to maximize on the next three races. He knows that his team is quick on the upcoming tracks, but he also knows that other teams are catching up. He explained exactly why he has struggled in the Chase to begin with.
“I don’t feel like our speed has been off as much as balance things; not being strong on the restarts because of the balance, things like that,” continued Hamlin. “I don’t think our speed really has gone much of anywhere.
“And I do think the field, of course, the field always gets better and faster as the year goes on. But I feel like we have, too. We’ll find out in a few weeks kind of where that all stacks up and truly where the field is on speed at this time of year.”
The veteran driver knows how important the next three races are. Hamlin’s goal is simple. Score big points and win races to put himself in a strong position.
When asked what a big points day is for him, the reply was calculated and precise. “50 plus.”
Denny Hamlin’s last big 50-point haul came when NASCAR returned to historic North Wilkesboro Speedway for its first points-paying race in 30 years. Hamlin finished second behind a dominant Logano that night, earning 51 points. Nine races have passed since then, and he now enters this crucial intermediate stretch with little room for error.
Hamlin knows he needs to make the most of these tracks and collect around 150 points over the next three weeks if he wants to keep pace with Logano and Kyle Larson in the championship fight.