Having dropped to second in points, Denny Hamlin and his No. 11 Joe Gibbs Racing team might begin to wonder if this season is going to be yet another where it’s been a hit all the way up until when it really matters. While Hamlin is only one point behind Kyle Larson, with three races down in the Chase, Hamlin and Co. aren’t looking as sharp as they did in the regular season.
Hamlin entered the Chase as the No. 1 seed, and ever since, it’s been downhill for Hamlin’s No. 11 JGR team. After the first two Chase races, Hamlin felt that he was lucky to be in the lead, but that is beginning to change now.
“I felt the Chase started off where it was like I was really happy with Darlington, not the finish, but certainly how we were running,” Hamlin told Frontstretch. “So, not quite as confident as I was going in. But still, every week is a new week. And you can come here and win the race and have your points gap right back where it was.”
Hamlin’s Chase began with a 4th-place start in Darlington that translated to a lowly 18th-place finish, his lowest finish since June when he finished 26th at Sonoma. Next up was Gateway, where Hamlin managed to survive the brake rotor issues that plagued several competitors to finish 9th. And last weekend in Bristol, Hamlin started in 3rd after qualifying was rained out and finished 8th.
Hamlin has picked up 105 points from the first three Chase races. His closest competitors, Hendrick Motorsports’ No. 5 Chevrolet driver Kyle Larson and Team Penske’s No. 22 Ford driver Joey Logano, have amassed 161 and 155 points respectively. Logano, who was 65 points behind Hamlin when the Chase began, is now just 16 points behind the JGR driver.
But Hamlin is only looking ahead and not behind. And coming up next are three intermediate tracks: Kansas, Las Vegas, and Charlotte. These are track layouts where Toyota has the most pace, and in the regular season, they seemed far superior to the other OEMs.
Hamlin knows that this year is his last shot at winning the title he’s been yearning for two decades now. The Chase will feature at least one road course race in 2027, which Hamlin said will be his last full Cup season.
The weight of expectation isn’t just in knowing that this could be his last shot.
Hamlin also knows that multi-time Cup winners like Logano and Larson will pounce on any slip-up, which is why the JGR veteran is looking to maximize on the next three races. Hamlin knows that his team is quick on the upcoming tracks, but he also knows that other teams are catching up. He explained exactly why he has struggled in the Chase to begin with.
“I don’t feel like our speed has been off as much as balance things; not being strong on the restarts because of the balance, things like that,” said Hamlin. “I don’t think our speed really has gone much of anywhere. And I do think the field, of course, the field always gets better and faster as the year goes on. But I feel like we have, too. We’ll find out in a few weeks kind of where that all stacks up and truly where the field is on speed at this time of year.”
The veteran driver already knows the value of the upcoming races, and also has very specific targets he wants to achieve from the next three races.
“It’s important to us, for sure. I think it’s one where we need to get big point days and win races,” said Hamlin. “If we can do that, then I’ll feel pretty good about where we’re at.”
Asked what a big points day is for him, the reply was calculated and precise. “50 plus.”
Hamlin’s last 50-point race haul was when NASCAR returned to North Wilkesboro for a first points-paying race in 30 years. Hamlin finished second behind Logano and picked up 51 points. It’s been eight races since Hamlin achieved the target he is setting for the next three races, but it’s getting closer to a do-or-die situation for Hamlin. He understands there is no way he beats Logano or Larson to the title if he doesn’t pick up about 150 points in the three races to come.