It was crunch time for those on the fringes of elimination heading into the Cook Out 400 last weekend. Austin Cindric was 16th in the standings, holding the final spot on the Chase bubble. Ahead of him was Shane van Gisbergen, still in the mix thanks to his two wins earlier this season, while Ryan Preece was behind Cindric and still chasing his first-ever Cup Series postseason appearance. But after 400 tense laps around Richmond Raceway, everything changed, and the fortunes of all three drivers changed.

Cindric all but secured his spot, finishing third and scoring 14 stage points to move up to 15th in the standings, 57 points ahead of 17th place. As a result, the real battle for the final spot came down to van Gisbergen and Preece. For most of the early part of the race, it looked like the RFK Racing driver was in a commanding position. That was until a caution flipped the battle.

Former crew chief Todd Gordon and former Cup Series driver Jamie McMurray dissected the strategy gamble van Gisbergen took on Inside the Race, which ultimately helped him come out on top. As McMurray put it, things went “horribly” for the No. 60 team.

Gordon said, “Derrick Finley decided he was going to three-stop Stage 2, and likewise, SVG did, Stephen Doran for SVG. In this position down here, I understand it. But up here, I kind of… This ended up unraveling the 60 car’s day because now we’ve put ourselves on the strategy that SVG’s on and separated from the leaders.”

Van Gisbergen, who started the race from 31st, was in 23rd when his crew chief Doran decided to opt for a high-risk three-stop strategy. But Gordon understood that, because he was in a position to take that gamble. Preece started from 6th on the grid, and there was no reason for his crew chief Finley to go for it.

Voluntarily, Preece lost his track position. And when Zane Smith brought out the caution flag on lap 125, this strategy completely backfired.

SVG, who was a lap down at that point, took a gamble and stayed out on tires that were more than 30 laps old. He took the wave-around and got back on the lead lap.

The Trackhouse Racing driver eventually had to make a green-flag pit stop, dropping him a couple of laps down. But with much fresher tires when everyone else cycled through their stops, he was able to regain track position.

Preece, meanwhile, as Gordon and McMurray noted, got stuck in traffic. With the field running so close together after the caution, he couldn’t overtake easily. Being off-sequence on tires also meant he was racing against drivers on much fresher rubber. Later in the race, tire management became even more important for the RFK driver as the green-flag runs stretched out, especially with only two sets of tires left in the pits.

When that caution came out, he was in the process of gonna have to pit again sooner than the other guys as well. So the timing of the cautions played out perfectly for SVG, and it played out horribly for Ryan Priest in the 60 team,” McMurray stated.

SVG’s tire management and strategy gamble ultimately paid off. He finished 14th, three spots ahead of Preece. With just two races left before the Chase, it’s heartbreak for the RFK driver, who began the year with a win in the Clash at Bowman Gray and high hopes of making his first postseason. Now, those hopes are hanging by a thread.

A challenging day for Ryan Preece to look back on

After the Cook Out 400, SVG dropped to 16th. But the fact that he finished three places ahead of Preece allowed him to build a 50-point lead over Preece in 17th. And in two races, it’s a herculean task for the RFK driver to overturn that.

Preece, after Richmond, agreed that tire wear was his biggest enemy on the day. In the post-race presser, he said, “It was a challenging day. Grip and tire wear was really the battle. Especially having to go 100 laps knowing I only had two sets left and was averaging 37 laps on stickers. Disappointing, especially after a P6 qualifying effort.

“I got better on the long runs, but the way the cautions fell with our strategy, it just didn’t pan out.”

Preece did not sound too defeated, saying he would head to New Hampshire this weekend ready to go all out. But he’ll need other results to go his way if he is to have any chance of making the Chase. Looking back at the season, though, he pointed to Texas as the race that ultimately sealed his fate.

He was fined $50,000 and docked 25 points after an incident with Ty Gibbs, where he admitted over the radio that he was considering intentionally wrecking him. Telemetry also showed Preece didn’t lift as he approached Gibbs, forcing him off track and into the wall. His comments on the radio ultimately led to NASCAR’s harsh penalty.

Had Preece not lost those 25 points, he would have had a much better chance heading into New Hampshire and Daytona. It’s something other veterans, including journalist Jeff Gluck, have also pointed out in recent days. On The Teardown podcast, Gluck discussed the possibility of Preece being the only driver outside the top 16 with a real chance of making the Chase. But there will still be regrets.

“It’s looking possible after next week that it could come down to Preece being the only one that’s even really in the ballpark. And boy, would he like to have those 25 points back if that’s the case,” Gluck said on the podcast.

All things said, Richmond ultimately turned the playoff picture on its head. Preece came into the race with a real chance of making the postseason. He even started well. But a difficult strategy call and SVG’s gamble left him with a much tougher road ahead.