Qualification Scenarios for NASCAR Cup Series Playoff Drivers to Make the Championship Race

Published 11/01/2020, 7:20 AM EST

The fate of seven drivers hangs in the balance before the NASCAR Cup Series race at Martinsville Speedway. Three spots for the championship race at Phoenix Raceway will be decided by just one race. One of those spots will be decided by a win, provided one of the playoff contenders wins.

If a repeat of the Texas race happens, where a non-playoff contender won, all three spots will be decided on points.

Joey Logano is the only driver in the final four so far. Kevin Harvick, Denny Hamlin, and Brad Keselowski currently hold the three transfer spots. Harvick is a healthy 42 points above the cutoff spot, while Hamlin and Keselowski are 27 and 25 points above the cutoff, respectively.

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The four drivers in a tough spot are Alex Bowman, Chase Elliott, Martin Truex Jr., and Kurt Busch. Bowman and Elliott are 25 points adrift of the cutoff spot. Truex Jr. is 36 points behind, while Busch is a mammoth 81 points behind.

Clinching scenarios for the NASCAR Cup Series playoff contenders

To qualify at Martinsville, there are a couple of scenarios that the drivers will be involved in and which will decide their futures this season.

If the Martinsville race sees a new winner this season, Harvick, Hamlin, and Keselowski will all go through on points. Harvick and Hamlin will qualify with 37 and 53 points respectively. Keselowski would prevail with 55 points.

Bowman, Elliott, and Truex Jr. can also qualify. However, they will need external help and will have to depend on other results along with their own.

If a driver who has already won this year wins again at Martinsville, the situation is even better for the top-three. Harvick will clinch his place with 14 points. Hamlin and Keselowski will need just 29 and 31 points respectively.

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The ‘win and in’ formula

The situation for Bowman, Elliott, and Truex Jr. is the same here as well. So if they want to be in complete control of their own fates, they need a win. It is important to note that Kurt Busch can qualify only with a win. He is languishing far behind on points.

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Joey Logano is the only one with a ticket to Phoenix. Martinsville is always a tough race to conquer and short-tracks are always eventful. With everything on the line in Sunday’s race, the battle for those three spots will be chaotic, to say the least.

NASCAR Cup Series Playoff Elimination Race at Martinsville Speedway: Preview and Prediction

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Aayush Majumdar is a NASCAR content strategist, a Tennis Writer, and a sports analyst at EssentiallySports. He is well-tenured as a tennis and NASCAR writer, with over 900 articles across both sports. After pursuing a Post Graduate program in Sports Management, Aayush explored various roles in Sports Media, including a Sports Reporting role at a leading English daily.

Qualification Scenarios for NASCAR Cup Series Playoff Drivers to Make the Championship Race

Clinching scenarios for the NASCAR Cup Series playoff contenders

The ‘win and in’ formula

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