Alex Bowman seems like a clear odd pick among the HMS drivers, and his future at HMS has always been a hot topic for debate. For some reason or another, Bowman keeps finding himself in tough spots, and after missing 4 races due to vertigo symptoms, his future at HMS has come under question again. However, HMS’s Vice President of Competition, Chad Knaus, isn’t giving up hope on Bowman’s 2026 campaign just yet.

“Alex has done a great job, so we’re really excited to see what they can do moving forward. You know, it’s unfortunate that we’re in the points position we are in currently, but as long as they keep slugging, who knows what happens?” Knaus said while speaking on Sirius XM NASCAR Radio. His statement might sound optimistic, but the way Bowman has bounced back can’t be ignored.

Now coming back from an injury to a track like Bristol isn’t ideal, and Bowman suffered a setback after crashing out. But since then, he’s racked up two consecutive Top 5 finishes, this is his first streak after 2024, and had it not been for his push at Texas, Elliott might not have won that race. As things stand, Bowman is chasing a 127-point deficit to the Chase cutline, and in theory, this seems like an unrealistic target. But, surprisingly, we’ve seen a similar comeback, especially in the Chase format.

Remember the 2015 season? Kyle Busch fractured his legs during an O’Reilly Series race and missed the first 11 races. It was a tall task for the JGR driver to reach the Chase, but a winning streak from Sonoma to Indy allowed him to script the biggest comeback. What’s even more surprising, he went on to win his first NASCAR Cup championship that same season. Now, understandably, ‌expectations need to be kept in check when it comes to Bowman, as his last win came at Chicago in 2024. Yet there are more people apart from Knaus who refuse to give up.

“I think it goes to show you the resiliency and strength that he has,” HMS Vice Chairman Jeff Gordon said after the Texas race. “I almost think he thrives sometimes when he’s down, and he’s a fighter. And I think these last few weeks – not just the last two when he’s gotten back in the car – has shown what he’s made of as a human being.” But there is a small hurdle that both HMS and Bowman need to overcome before dreaming about the comeback.

For Bowman to be eligible for Chase, he needs a medical waiver. Hendrick Motorsports is expected to send in that request to NASCAR, but still, this will be job half done. The driver of the No. 48 Chevy will have to finish inside the Top 16 at the end of the regular season. As things stand, Bowman doesn’t have the waiver in hand, and he still needs to overcome the massive points gap to make a case for himself.

Alex Bowman’s future at HMS

For most of the 2026 season, it felt like Alex Bowman’s future at Hendrick Motorsports was quietly heading toward an ending. Fans, analysts, and even parts of the NASCAR media world had already started treating this year as the final chapter of Bowman’s nine-year run with the organization. And on paper, the concerns were understandable.

Bowman is currently in the final season of his three-year contract, yet there has been very little public movement toward an extension. Over nearly a decade with HMS, he has consistently been viewed as the weakest statistical performer among the organization’s four full-time drivers.

Yes, Bowman owns eight career Cup Series wins, but the numbers beyond that tell a more complicated story. He has managed just one victory in his last 145 starts dating back to 2022. Despite qualifying for the playoffs in seven of the last eight seasons, his best championship finish remains eighth place, achieved twice.

That simply does not stack up cleanly against the standards set by teammates like Kyle Larson, Chase Elliott, or William Byron. Still, Bowman has always had powerful supporters within the Hendrick ecosystem. He was personally selected by Dale Earnhardt Jr. to replace him following his retirement in 2017, and both Earnhardt Jr. and Rick Hendrick have continued backing him through difficult stretches.

Another major factor working in Bowman’s favor is sponsor stability. Ally Financial remains heavily invested in Bowman and is already committed through the 2028 season. That kind of financial security matters enormously in modern NASCAR and could become a deciding factor in contract discussions later this year.

The expectation now is that if HMS does extend Bowman, the deal would likely be shorter and less lucrative than his current contract. But after battling through vertigo issues and suddenly producing consecutive top-three finishes, Bowman may finally be rebuilding momentum at exactly the right time.

A month ago, his HMS future looked nearly finished. Right now, it feels uncertain again. But, for Bowman, that alone is a major turnaround.