The Watkins Glen euphoria is still afloat. Shane van Gisbergen led 38 laps en route to Victory Lane, finishing 11.1 seconds ahead of his next rival. Now, however, anticipation is creeping up the entire Cup Series grid. Only two races remain before the 2025 post-season starts – at Richmond Raceway and the regular season finale at Daytona. There are many still looking to land a playoff berth via a walk-off win. Even for SVG, troubles lie ahead.

In his brief time in NASCAR, the Kiwi speedster has carved out his niche. SVG soars in road courses – but when it comes to the sport’s traditional ovals, he falls short tremendously. This knowledge is well-embedded in the Trackhouse Racing driver’s mind, as he took a calculated approach.

Shane van Gisbergen is not feeling too eager

The bright side looks fairly optimistic for now. Shane van Gisbergen’s four victories in 2025 – in Mexico City, Chicago, Sonoma, and Watkins Glen – have lent him a 22-point playoff cushion. However, the oval races sprinkled in between these victories were horror shows for SVG. He struggled with finishes of 31st in Pocono, 30th in Dover, 19th in Indianapolis, and 31st in Iowa. Hence, the first round of the 2025 playoffs is going to be tricky. They open at Darlington Raceway, whose odd shape is a difficult layout, and continue into Gateway and then Bristol. SVG has experience in Darlington and Bristol, but he has never run a race in Gateway.

Hence, even amidst tall comparisons with 4-time Cup Series champion Jeff Gordon or Hendrick Motorsports contemporary Chase Elliott, Shane van Gisbergen took a humble stance. The No. 88 Chevy driver measured his chances in a recent Sirius XM NASCAR interview: “The playoffs are pretty soon. So I just need to keep the averages up, keep getting good results, and who knows where we’ll end up? But I really think we’re improving every week. Yeah, that first round’s gonna be difficult.”

Nevertheless, Shane van Gisbergen banked on the positives as well. With his healthy playoff points and a road course in the second round, the Charlotte Roval race, he feels there is hope. SVG continued, “But having the playoff points really helps us. And then the second round has tracks that we should be able to get good results at. So who knows what can happen?”

In two prior Cup starts at Darlington, Shane van Gisbergen finished 26th and 20th. However, he is worried about Bristol Motor Speedway, as he finished 38th there last year due to suspension issues. He reflected on his chances: “I ran terrible there. Bristol was so far from anything I’ve ever done, and that’s a really tough place. That’s probably the biggest worry. Darlington, I feel fine, especially now that we have a lot of points.” 

Meanwhile, however, SVG’s team owner feels fairly confident about his chances.

Sticking to his true purpose

When Shane van Gisbergen shifted to the US from New Zealand, he had a goal in mind. He wanted to build a winning career in NASCAR after already achieving a successful stint in Supercars. That is why he broke into the sport with a bang in 2023, bagging his debut Cup Series victory in Chicago. In 2024, SVG kept proving his prowess in the Xfinity Series, winning three races in Portland, Sonoma, and Chicago. Since his spark never dimmed out, team owner Justin Marks put his reputation on the line. Marks convinced sponsors to risk millions on an audacious plan to make the Cup playoffs with an inexperienced and unheralded rookie, an unconventional approach in the sport. It turned out to be worth the risk.

In a recent interview, Justin Marks said that despite the uncertainty on ovals, Shane van Gisbergen might just make a deep playoff run. “Shane just continues to go showcase why we’ve made a long-term commitment to him, why we brought him over here from New Zealand, and built this team around him. Because in a sport like this, where winning is so important and so hard to do, if you can catch some lightning in a bottle like we’ve got with SVG, you’ve got to really lean into it. That’s what we’ve done. It’s like seeing a plan come together.”

With optimism running high, who knows what the future holds? Shane van Gisbergen might get it done, as he continues to work on his oval skills.