“Has there been someone with this big of an advantage on road courses …? I don’t think so.” Denny Hamlin said these words about Shane van Gisbergen, even before the Sonoma weekend. With his fresh victory at the 1.99-mile circuit, the Kiwi speedster clinched back-to-back road course wins. He has officially stamped himself as a road course racing savant. But will the same ethereal advantage appear on oval racetracks?

Shane van Gisbergen got his first pavement oval experience in 2024. Hence, the learning curve has been steep against his NASCAR rivals, who have grown up learning oval racing. However, fans are increasingly believing that the ‘road ringer’ title is not all that there is to SVG.

Shane van Gisbergen’s growth is inevitable

Well, things looked sordid just over a month ago. At Trackhouse Racing, the hot seat rumors swirled around both Daniel Suarez and Shane van Gisbergen, as both fell behind Ross Chastain’s consistency. SVG was 33rd in point standings among 36 drivers. What is more? His average finish in every type of NASCAR oval (superspeedway, intermediate, and short track) was outside the top 25, with a best finish of 14th at Charlotte Motor Speedway.

With his road course glory streak beginning from Mexico City, however, Shane van Gisbergen proved that he can make up for his oval failures. His teammate, Daniel Suarez, eventually announced that he would be parting ways with Trackhouse, while SVG became the name of the game. He has now picked up his third victory at Sonoma, but when will his peak victory moment come on an oval?

According to NASCAR fans now, it might not be very far away. Just over a month ago, doubts enshrouded the Kiwi speedster’s fate in the sport. Now, the fan base is throwing its weight behind him for his much-awaited win on an oval track. A NASCAR fan on Reddit adamantly proclaimed SVG’s impending glory: “I’m calling it right now. I’m sorry but you don’t win three races in the cup series (even on RC’s) and not have actual legitimate talent. If Suarez can do it so can SVG (no hate on Suarez he’s a talented guy as well, I’m sad to see him go from Trackhouse).” So, what was different about SVG’s Sonoma win that’s got fans thinking this way?

Well, for starters, this is SVG’s first-ever race at Sonoma in the NASCAR Cup Series. While he does have 2 Xfinity starts, Cup is a different level, with most of the field having already run hundreds of laps at a road course that has been in NASCAR since the 1980s. To come and beat Cup-level road course aces like Kyle Larson, Chris Buescher, Michael McDowell, and many more on a track that they know well in a type of car they have driven all their life is no mean feat, and even his competition knows this.

Veterans of the sport also believe that Shane van Gisbergen will overcome his weakness. Hendrick Motorsports star Kyle Larson said recently, “He’s still new to the oval stuff, so he’s going to continue to get better at that. And, yeah, I mean, if he can figure out the ovals, he’s going to be dominant.” Trackhouse team owner Justin Marks declared that he would not have kept SVG if he had not seen his versatile talent. Marks said, “At this level of the game, you have to be a complete package. For his level of intelligence and how he studies and adapts and learns, there’s a real opportunity here for him to figure the ovals out and be a complete Cup driver.”

The voices of support for Shane van Gisbergen extended beyond the NASCAR garage. The fan base also chipped in with their positive viewpoints.

NASCAR fans make guesses

Mexico City, Chicago, and now Sonoma. Where will Shane van Gisbergen shine next? You must be thinking immediately about the next road courses. However, many in the NASCAR community believe that oval names will also pop up in this list. Somebody suggested Talladega Superspeedway, a venue known to host chaotic wrecks. The fan wrote their dream broadcasting call for SVG: “AND SVG WINS AT TALLADEGA AND ADVANCES TO THE CHAMPIONSHIP 4!”

The Sonoma racetrack featured soft tires and marbles, which SVG maneuvered gracefully. Hence, another fan predicted SVG’s dominance on ovals where soft tires come into play. They wrote, “Probably gonna need to be at a track with large amounts of tire fall off. Charlotte and Darlington he looked really good.” SVG has also confessed that Darlington is his favorite oval track in the country, and has a career-best oval finish of 14th at Charlotte, so this fan’s prediction could be more realistic than you think.

However, NASCAR drivers and Supercars drivers are bred differently. While the former are used to competing close to rivals on ovals, the latter use hard-charging precision to tackle road courses. But the speed of SVG’s growth had a fan guessing his immediate success. They wrote, “SVG runs the super speedways incredibly well for a newbie. He is a smart race car driver and puts himself in good spots to avoid the crashes and take the runs…just needs to be more aggressive blocking. He drove to the front and led laps in some of his Cup starts. More than many Cup regulars have done.”

Another fan pitched SVG’s impending success in the playoffs. Even if an oval win does not materialize this year, the Trackhouse Racing speedster is capitalizing on the 6 road courses. The fan wrote, “This is why people who were complaining about him after his Chicago win don’t understand. The Cup schedule is about 20% road courses now. This dude has a legitimate chance to statistically win 1 in 5 Cup races now. Even if he never wins on an oval (which I don’t think will be the case anyway) he’s giving his team a tremendous chance to rack up wins regardless.” Somebody else preferred to take a slower approach. Given that SVG has not cracked the top ten on ovals yet, taking baby steps may be better: “How about SVG gets a top-10 at an oval first. He only has 6 top-20 finishes in 24 oval starts.”

As it stands, all eyes are on Shane van Gisbergen and his impeccable racing skills. Let us wait and see how the Kiwi’s season unfolds. Do you think he can make a legitimate championship push? Let us know in the comments!