Alex Bowman locked into the playoff after a wild Daytona shake-up, joining Tyler Reddick as one of the drivers advancing purely on points. Ryan Blaney’s victory there, his second of 2025, sealed Bowman’s spot at P16 despite a P36 crash finish. Bowman quipped, “I owe Ryan Blaney seven million beers,” crediting the win for keeping out new victors. But while Bowman slid into the playoffs in dramatic fashion, former Hendrick Motorsports crew chief Steve Letarte believes his story is far from over.

In the playoff system since 2014, drivers like Ryan Newman advanced in that first year without a regular-season win, relying on consistency to reach the final four. Bowman’s Chicago triumph adds a twist, but his Daytona survival spotlights the format’s quirks. Yet, after last season’s heartbreaking disqualification at the Charlotte Roval for an underweight car, redemption feels within reach if he shakes off the hangover. But does Alex Bowman have what it takes to advance past the first round? Steve Letarte weighs in with his take.

Steve Letarte’s take on Bowman’s playoff potential

On the X post, Steve Letarte shared his candid views on Alex Bowman’s playoff chances, emphasizing the driver’s untapped potential despite a low-key entry. “I actually think the 48 can,” Letarte said, pointing to Bowman’s ability to advance. He tied this optimism to Bowman’s tough exit last year, noting, “Let’s remember how he was eliminated a year ago for the fan that has forgotten; you know, he advanced out of the Roval when the checkered flag fell, and then being too light in post-race inspection eliminated him.”

Let’s play a game called, “Can They Make It to Round 2?”

First up – Alex Bowman

Does he move into the next round of the #NASCARPlayoffs ? pic.twitter.com/6936DEfIYC

— Steve Letarte (@SteveLetarte) August 27, 2025

That 2024 disqualification, after Bowman had earned enough points to move on, cost him a Round of 12 spot and left him ninth in the final standings, a crushing blow for the No. 48 team that Letarte believes lingered into 2025. Letarte described the emotional toll, saying, “As a guy who’s had these crushing emotional losses, right? There is a hangover to that. And I think the 48 kind of has raced a little bit with that hangover.” Substantiating this, Bowman’s 2025 stats show a mid-pack average finish of 16.38, but with poles at Homestead and Richmond and strong runs like fourth at Mexico City despite a hard crash at Michigan.

Letarte hopes the playoffs act as a reset: “I’m waiting for the cold water to go on, you know, to kind of splash on the face of the 48, and I’m hoping that’s what happens during the first round for their sake, because I think he has the firepower.” This aligns with Bowman’s recent form, including seven top-10s in his last 11 starts before Daytona, positioning him for redemption if he capitalizes on Hendrick’s resources.

Diving deeper, Letarte highlighted the playoff field’s competitiveness, stating, “When I look at the numbers, first of all, we’re not really missing anybody for me. That’s going to be a super unpopular statement in the championship or in the playoff 16.” He argued no major threats were left out, with interchangeable drivers like Bowman capable of shaking things up. Backing this, Bowman’s track record at first-round venues since 2022 includes a 10th at Atlanta and 4th in Kansas in 2022 and a ninth at Bristol‘s night race in 2024, mixed but with top-10 potential.

Letarte finally predicted, “I have Bowman moving out of the round of 16. I really do,” urging co-host Russell to agree, who added Bowman’s average eighth-place finish in the 10 races before Daytona made him arguably Hendrick‘s hottest driver. Letarte’s confidence in Bowman raises broader questions about the entire field. As the playoffs kick off at Darlington, who stands out as true title threats?

Playoff power rankings: Title favorites revealed

William Byron tops the list with the best shot at the 2025 Cup title, entering as regular-season champ with two wins at Daytona and Iowa, plus leading the series in laps led. “There really is no favorite, as no driver has dominated this year,” notes the FOX Sports analysis, but Byron’s prior Championship 4 trips without a trophy add motivation. His +26 points above the cutline and Hendrick’s edge make him a safe bet for Phoenix, though consistency will be key in a season where he’s racked up strong stage points without overwhelming dominance.

Ryan Blaney, the 2023 champ, ranks second after his Daytona triumph capped a resilient run despite seven DNFs. “The 2023 Cup champion enters the playoffs with the momentum of winning the regular-season finale, which was his second victory of the year (Nashville was the other),” the analysis explains. Sitting +20 on the cutoff, Blaney’s ability to finish races could propel him deep, much like his 2023 surge.

Kyle Larson follows in third with three wins, including at tracks like Bristol in round one, despite recent slumps. “A lot has been made of the fact that Larson has just three top-five finishes in the 14 races since his last win,” but his 2021 title proves he thrives under pressure.

Denny Hamlin rounds out the top four, tied for most wins with four at Martinsville, Darlington, Michigan, and Dover. Yet, his limp into the playoffs with one top-10 in the last four starts raises flags. “Of course, the question that is asked: Will this be the year Denny Hamlin wins the title? He has pretty much as good a chance to win it as any other year, and as much of a chance to lose it,” the breakdown highlights.

Lower down, Bowman sits ninth in title odds, with his recent top-10 streak offering hope, but his -5 deficit demands flawless execution. Overall, the field lacks a runaway leader, setting up a wide-open battle.