One win. That’s all that stands between Shane van Gisbergen and Jeff Gordon’s record. But that could be about to change. They say the third time’s the charm, and that might just hold true for SVG. After coming up short in his previous bid at COTA, he still trails Gordon’s mark of six straight road course victories. This time, though, SVG heads into the match with a real advantage.

Just before the Cup race in Austin, Texas, the Kiwi delivered in his double-duty effort by securing a win at COTA. And now, the 36-year-old is not slowing down.

“I did learn a bit. I tried some things. I wasn’t driving very well earlier today, and we were lacking in the car, but I can be better, too. So hopefully it’s worthwhile doing these races, and yeah, hopefully it helps tomorrow,” he said post-race.

As we know, Jeff Gordon isn’t just another name in NASCAR history; he is the original road course titan. Over the course of his career, Gordon recorded nine road course victories, the most in NASCAR Cup Series history, including a stunning streak of six consecutive road course wins from 1997 to 2000.

That mark stood for decades as one of the sport’s most defining displays of mastery on twisty, technical circuits, with sustained success at iconic tracks like Watkins Glen and Sonoma Raceway, where he excelled year after year.

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And now, SVG is pushing to match that level.

What made Gordon’s run even more remarkable was his versatility. He wasn’t just dominant on road courses. With 93 Cup wins overall, he ranks third on the all-time list and found Victory Lane everywhere from restrictor plate tracks to superspeedways.

But now SVG isn’t far off, and it all started last year thanks to his dominant road course run. In 2025, the Kiwi shook up the field in his debut NASCAR Cup Series season. He won five of the six Cup Series road course races, with the Circuit of the Americas being the only track that eluded him.

However, that changed at the NASCAR O’Reilly Auto Parts event this year. SVG finally put his name on the winner’s list at a track that had puzzled him in Cup competition.

The 36-year-old carved his way from sixth on a late restart to the lead, dominating the closing laps and taking the checkered flag by just under a second over Austin Hill. It was his first victory at COTA in either series and his fifth career win in the O’Reilly Series, once again showcasing why he is one of the most feared road racers in NASCAR today.

In a bold move, SVG passed five competitors in a single turn to seize control of the race. Now, he looks to carry that momentum into Sunday’s Cup race.

If SVG goes on to win the 2026 Cup Series road course race at COTA, tying Jeff Gordon’s mark of six consecutive road course wins, it would mark a seismic moment in NASCAR history.

For a driver born and raised outside the traditional NASCAR heartland, hailing from New Zealand and shaped by Supercars competition, reaching parity with Gordon’s legendary streak would signal a dramatic shift in the sport’s global narrative.

It would not just be another statistic; it would be proof that an international talent can not only compete at the highest level of American stock car racing but also match one of its most revered records.

But SVG will be racing with a chip on his shoulder, and these are the drivers he needs to watch.

COTA favorites that could pose as a potential threat to SVG

Even with SVG installed as the clear favorite for COTA, thanks to his unmatched run of road course dominance, there are a handful of drivers that oddsmakers and models believe could spoil the Kiwi’s party.

Right behind him on the early DraftKings odds board is his teammate, Connor Zilisch, priced at around +350 to win, making him one of the most talked-about dark horse contenders. The 19-year-old enters this race with serious momentum after winning at COTA in the Xfinity Series last year, and sportsbooks are factoring that recent success into his Cup odds.

Beyond the up-and-comers, experienced road racers like Christopher Bell and William Byron are also drawing significant attention. Bell, who won last year’s COTA race, appears on most leaderboards as a strong candidate for another solid run, and NASCAR’s Racing Insights projects him as one of the top finishers if SVG doesn’t convert.

Meanwhile, Byron’s history of success at this track, including multiple top-five finishes and a previous win, has earned him +1000 on the odds boards, a price that reflects both compatibility and consistency.

Then there are a few familiar names who often sit just outside the immediate spotlight but could make noise if circumstances break their way. Tyler Reddick, fresh off winning the season’s first two races and securing the pole at COTA, is viewed as a contender for a top-five finish and possibly a win if SVG or others falter, despite longer odds.

Likewise, traditional road course standouts like Chase Elliott and even Kyle Larson appear as intriguing long shots in several predictive models, both boasting solid past road course results and the kind of upside that can flip a race on its head.

While SVG’s road course résumé still makes him the driver to beat, the presence of these contenders gives the COTA race a stacked field of potential spoilers and compelling storylines beyond just the favorite.