Denny Hamlin must be wondering what he did to upset the racing gods. After watching his first Cup Series championship slip away in heartbreaking fashion in the 2025 season finale, the Joe Gibbs Racing veteran returned in 2026 hoping for a different ending. Finishing the regular season as the No. 1 seed suggested the tide had finally turned in his favor.
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The Chase has gone wrong for Hamlin in nearly every way. A slow stop and wall contact at Darlington, a pit-road misjudgment and a spin at Las Vegas, and now a tire failure and a speeding penalty at Phoenix have each cost him a strong run. With three races left, all he is asking for is one clean afternoon.
“I want one smooth race that no bulls*** happens. That’s what I want. But it’s just you can’t will it. It just has to happen. And some things are meant to happen. Some things are not meant to happen. But at this point, I feel like the racing gods are picking on me. You know what I mean? That’s where I’m at,” Hamlin said on his Actions Detrimental podcast after another rough Sunday at Phoenix Raceway.
The race was especially cruel because the No. 11 Toyota had finally begun to show the speed Hamlin needed, only for a right-rear tire failure to derail his afternoon. He restarted between 11th and 13th at the end of Stage 2, began passing cars , and eventually climbed into the top five.
Hamlin was challenging Chase Briscoe for third when the tire failed on Lap 221. He had been reeling in the leaders and saw a chance to make a serious impact on the race. Moments later, it was gone.
The failure also created trouble on pit road. Hamlin explained that without a working right-rear tire, braking became much harder, and he struggled to slow the car entering the pits. He was penalized for speeding.
The caution came out right after Hamlin left pit road, and he thought the free pass would get him his lap back. But the speeding penalty ruled him out, and Erik Jones got it instead. Hamlin finished 28th, a lap down, which ended his streak of 31 straight lead-lap finishes.
Phoenix was just the latest bad day in a postseason that has rarely gone his way. He opened the Chase at Darlington by leading 68 laps, but a slow stop at the Stage 2 break dropped him into the pack. He later got loose in the final stage, was tagged by Michael McDowell and hit the wall, and finished 18th.
At Las Vegas, Hamlin’s decision to pit from the lead under an early caution let Kyle Larson, the points leader, take the wave-around and get back onto the lead lap. Hamlin later spun in Turn 4 while running near the front, which dropped him deep into the field, and he finished 16th.
Strong top-five finishes at Kansas and Charlotte offered some relief, but the No. 11 team struggled to turn those runs into victories.
Hamlin isn’t blaming everything on bad luck. He took responsibility for the Las Vegas pit call and admitted the team hasn’t finished races to the best of its capability. What wears on him is that every time the car comes alive, something goes wrong before the checkered flag.
The championship standings offer a strange mix of relief and frustration. Larson’s own tire failure and 34th-place finish allowed Hamlin to gain 18 points, but Hamlin still sits fourth, 31 points behind the leader. Christopher Bell is five points behind Larson, Chase Briscoe is 24 back, and Ryan Blaney trails by 40. Seven drivers remain within 56 points of the top, so the title fight is far from settled.
Hamlin’s immediate challenge is to stop the cycle of promising runs ending in disappointment. Talladega is next, where the unpredictability of superspeedway racing can open the door to a major points swing or produce another frustrating afternoon. Martinsville follows, a track where he has enjoyed considerable success, before the championship is decided at Homestead-Miami Speedway.
The veteran has reason to believe he can still make a run. He has won at all three remaining venues, and the deficit is surmountable with three races left. He also made clear after the race that the team likely needs a win at Martinsville or Homestead, possibly both, and that it still controls its own destiny.
Hamlin can’t count on Larson or the other contenders running into trouble again. The No. 11 team has to run clean, stay off pit-road penalties and turn any fast car into a finish. At Phoenix he had driven his way into the top five, and one tire and one speeding call undid it all.