Denny Hamlin walked away from Gateway feeling lucky to be in the lead of the championship. An 8th-place finish at Bristol on Saturday night proved that Hamlin still has that luck on his side. Kyle Larson came in 2nd and took the championship lead off of Hamlin, but only by one point. 

Hamlin’s Chase hasn’t been off to the best start, and fans of the Joe Gibbs Racing veteran have begun to wonder whether this is another season where the No. 11 JGR driver falls short. NASCAR Insider and veteran journalist Jordan Bianchi believes that Hamlin still has it under control. 

“Even as bad as they’re performing, they’re only one point out, and things should even out,” said Bianchi on The Teardown podcast. They should be able to come out of this in a good spot these next three races. It sets up really well for them. I’m not worried. This was gonna be a dogfight. This was never gonna be like him, just having 10 lights-out weeks; we knew that. I think we all expected him to be better, but we all figured that he was going to have a bad race or two along the way because that’s just how it is.”

While Bianchi laid it out cleanly that this was never going to be a Chase where Hamlin would just keep waltzing into victory lane, he also believes that the signs to worry about Hamlin’s championship aren’t there yet. 

“I’m not worried,” added Bianchi. “I think he’s fine. He’s gonna probably go and win one of these next three races; he could win all three of those races. And I wouldn’t be shocked.”

The next three races that Bianchi is talking about are the upcoming races at Kansas, Las Vegas, and Charlotte. All three are mile-and-a-half-long speedways where Hamlin has had a decent amount of success. He won the race in Vegas earlier this year, finished 4th in Kansas, and 3rd in a rain-curtailed race at Charlotte. 

Hamlin has four wins at Kansas, two at Las Vegas Motor Speedway and a Charlotte win in 2022. But it’s not just how good Hamlin has been at these tracks in the past; it’s also the fact that Hamlin is in the Toyota, the manufacturers who have not only been the most dominant all season long, but also the most dominant specifically at these intermediate tracks. 

And his closest competitor, reigning champion and current championship leader Kyle Larson, knows that leading the championship is good, but with just one point between the No. 5 Hendrick Motorsports driver and Hamlin, going into intermediate tracks isn’t really a lead to brag about. 

“I mean, it’s good (for us to take the points), but there’s still so much racing left,” Larson said. “Just got to keep having good, consistent days. It’s three top-5s to open the Chase, and it looks like leading the points now by just a point. But we’re going to some good tracks for us, but also good tracks for the Toyotas are Vegas and Kansas, Charlotte. It could easily change a lot here in the next upcoming weeks. But we’ve just got to be ready for anything and keep plugging away.”

Larson broke his winless streak at Gateway, but incredibly, Kansas was the track where he got his last win before that long streak. So Larson may have the one point in his favour, but he knows that will not be enough to keep Hamlin behind him. 

Jeff Gluck did the math as to what Hamlin will need to keep achieving race after race, and from his perspective it is quite a bit to worry about. 

“Their last top five was Richmond. So he’s gone five straight races now without a top five finish,” said Gluck. “And you would say, well, it’s, I mean, it’s okay. But like we just talked about, you might have to average 50 points. I mean, now you won’t have to average 50 to win it. But I mean, right now the top guys are averaging, like I said, almost 54 and 52. They’re not going to keep that up. But like, you might have to average forty-six points to win it. ”

Bianchi offered a completely different perspective on the very same races. 

“I look at it conversely and say in the last five races, he’s had three top tens,” said Bianchi. “And then an 11th-place finish. And in Darlington, he got into the, he had the issue of the road and the incident with Michael McDowell. So, like, yeah, are they doing the things that they were earlier there? No, but I still think they’re in a really good spot. And if Kansas is bad and they’re struggling to be competitive, then I think it’s fair to raise an eyebrow. But I don’t think we’re at that point yet.”

While Hamlin’s form has gone cold in the Chase, his closest rivals have quickly changed from JGR and other Toyota drivers to two multiple-time Cup Series winners. Kyle Larson is ahead of Hamlin, and right behind the JGR driver is Joey Logano, who won in Bristol. 

Larson has had a hot run in the Chase: 5th at Darlington, the win at Gateway, and 2nd in Bristol. Joey Logano, on the other hand, in his Team Penske No. 22 Ford, finished 9th at Darlington, 3rd at Gateway, and won Bristol. Larson has had his share of struggles in his Chevrolet, while Logano is on a resurgent run for Ford after a cold first half of the season. 

For Hamlin now, the battle isn’t just between OEM’s; it’s between a driver who is still searching for the elusive Cup title 21 years on, and drivers who have been there, done that, and know exactly what it takes to win the Cup Series.