There were huge expectations on Connor Zilisch heading into the 2026 season. The teenager had just won 10 races in the O’Reilly Series before joining Trackhouse Racing full-time. But the move hasn’t gone to plan, and Zilisch has struggled. He’s had the benefit of the doubt as a rookie driving for a team that has also struggled.

Zilisch will take over the No. 48 from Alex Bowman when he retires at the end of 2027. Rick Hendrick strongly backed the move, calling Zilisch a “truly gifted young racer” and stating that when a driver of his caliber becomes available, you “do everything you can to bring them into your organization.” Yet, Kevin Harvick couldn’t help but warn the young driver to proceed with a bit of caution.

“We will definitely find out if it was overhyped or hyped enough. We spoke to Alex Bowman about the 48. Now there’s just no way out, right? Like, there’s a way out right now for Connor with the Trackhouse situation and the way that the cars run with the results on the racetrack. Those excuses don’t live at Hendrick,” the former Cup Series driver said on his Happy Hour podcast.

Harvick made an important distinction between Hendrick Motorsports and Trackhouse. Hendrick is one of the most successful teams in NASCAR, holding the records for 15 Cup championships and 322 Cup wins, among other achievements across NASCAR’s divisions.

Trackhouse, meanwhile, has struggled for consistency in 2026. The lack of pace has made it harder to judge Zilisch purely on his results. The rookie has still endured a difficult introduction to Cup racing. He has recorded only one top-10 finish (a seventh-place result at Sonoma) while suffering eight DNFs. As a result, he currently sits 34th among 35 full-time drivers in the standings.

At HMS, however, the narrative of team inconsistency will not work. Zilisch will share the garage with three title contenders, will have a championship-winning staff, and a wealth of technological resources.

Kyle Larson has won two championships with the team, while Chase Elliott won the Cup Series title in 2020. William Byron, meanwhile, has also emerged as a strong championship contender in recent years.

That kind of internal standard is the reason why, before Zilisch’s signing, Harvick questioned if HMS should avoid the rookie gamble altogether and employ a veteran stop-gap instead.

“If it were me and I was Hendrick Motorsports, I would be super patient because you just don’t know who’s gonna come out of the woodwork,” Harvick argued. “Are you going for a Mark Martin-type situation or something that fills it for a couple years to just have fun with it? Or are you going for something long-term to build it from the ground up like you would with Zilisch?”

HMS ultimately went with the rookie gamble. However, Harvick’s take that the excuses won’t live at Hendrick ignores the fact that the current roster is built on the same kind of driver development.

Alex Bowman went through the same kind of development path as the man who is replacing him. Before getting into HMS, Bowman made plenty of rookie mistakes in backmarker cars. Driving for BK Racing and Tommy Baldwin Racing in 2014 and 2015, he finished a dismal 33rd in the 2015 standings with zero top-10s. Those early setbacks prepared him to win, and he eventually took over the No. 88 and later the No. 48.

But it isn’t just restricted to Bowman, it was also the case with William Byron, who started directly at HMS. Byron struggled in his 2018 rookie season, finishing 23rd in the standings with zero wins and just four top-10 finishes. Hendrick stayed patient, and Byron eventually grew into a championship contender.

Harvick’s argues that Zilisch will not arrive at Hendrick as an inexperienced prospect. By 2028, he will have two full-time Cup seasons under his belt, along with his 2025 part-time experience. The adjustment period that accompanies a rookie entering the sport will largely be behind him. Also, his resume already proves he has the talent.

Zilisch has 13 NASCAR O’Reilly Series victories. This includes 10 during his 2025 campaign. He also won on his O’Reilly Series debut at Watkins Glen in 2024 before earning his Cup promotion with Trackhouse in 2026.

For Zilisch, that means the question will eventually become much simpler. It won’t be whether he belongs in Cup, but rather, when he’s going to win.

“I don’t think so. That expectation period is over. You’re going to have two years at Trackhouse, and when you get into the 48, the expectation is going to be when,” Harvick summarized.

Despite the warning, Harvick is hardly writing Zilisch off. He believes that the youngster will win races and a championship in his career at some point.

Harvick had previously called Zilisch the “most polished and most well-rounded young driver” to enter the Cup Series in a long time, even comparing his arrival to Jeff Gordon’s. Now, Zilisch has two seasons to prove that assessment was justified.