If Denny Hamlin had a trophy to celebrate being the No. 1 seed heading into the Chase, he’d probably call it the perfect regular season. NASCAR, sadly for him, stopped handing those out this year. But what truly matters to the Joe Gibbs Racing driver is getting his hands on the Cup Series Championship trophy come November. And after the final race before the Chase, Hamlin may well be the favorite to do just that.
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Veteran NASCAR journalists Jordan Bianchi and Jeff Gluck discussed the No. 11 team’s position on The Teardown podcast, with the former seemingly unable to identify any obvious weaknesses. Gluck suggested that perhaps luck was the one thing holding them back. Bianchi, however, disagreed.
“But that’s not even, like, a weakness. That’s not anything in their realm of control whatsoever. Like, yeah, Hamlin’s luck sucks. And we get that,” Bianchi said on the podcast.
Luck hasn’t always been on Hamlin’s side. That much is a fact. Last season, he was arguably closer than ever to finally winning the championship, only for a questionable strategy call late in the Phoenix race to cost him the title and hand the Cup to Hendrick Motorsports’ Kyle Larson. But the cruel heartbreak aside, Hamlin has bounced back to finish No. 1 in the regular season for the first time in his two-decade career.
Hamlin’s consistency was such that he entered the Chase as the only driver in contention not to DNF in the first 26 races of the season. And his four wins, 14 top-five and 17 top-ten results are just further proof of how good Hamlin has been.
“Denny’s arguably the hardest-working driver in the sport,” said Bianchi while highlighting Hamlin’s strengths. “He studies the most. The team is on their game. The Toyota has the best cars this year. Joe Gibbs Racing is the best team. They check all the boxes.”
And it doesn’t just end at the checked boxes. Hamlin has a unique opportunity this season because the Chase doesn’t feature a single road course. He admitted in an interview ahead of the Coke Zero Sugar 400 — where he finished 11th — that he would be confident about winning on all 10 tracks.
Hamlin has also consistently shown that no matter where he is at the start of the race, he finds a way of getting to the very top and even winning, just like he did in Michigan and Nashville earlier this year.
“He’s got a 25-point cushion, and Denny Hamlin also has faster race cars to overcome,” said Bianchi. “And if they have an issue, we’ve seen it this year. Nashville, Iowa. Other places where they’ve had moments, you know, like they’re out to lunch and they figure it out.”
Hamlin has already been clear that the 2027 season will be his last full season, despite Joe Gibbs and everyone at JGR trying to convince him that he is still driving at his best and he can sustain it for years to come. He wants to leave at the very top, and the best way to do it would be to win the Cup this year. 2027 is a more difficult proposition, with the road course entry into the Chase sure to act as a chink in Hamlin’s otherwise perfect armour.
Hamlin finished 2nd last year. During the Championship Four Days, he finished third twice in 2014 and 2021, and he finished fourth in 2019 and 2020. For Hamlin, it’s always been a case of so close yet so far.
That is exactly why Bianchi said, “I feel clearly this is Denny Hamlin’s year. I feel like this is his championship to lose”
There will not be a better chance for Hamlin, because he is entering a racing calendar where he has won a race at each and every track that is coming his way.
Hamlin’s form at the upcoming Chase tracks
Hamlin has five wins at Darlington, where the Chase gets underway this weekend. The JGR driver also won at World Wide Technology Raceway in Illinois last year, the track NASCAR will visit following Darlington.
The third race of the Chase will take place at Bristol, where Hamlin has won both the night and day races twice apiece. Bristol will be followed by a trip to Kansas, a track where Hamlin has more Cup Series wins than any other driver.
From Kansas, the field heads to Las Vegas, a track where Hamlin has been a perennial threat. He has won there three times, including in 2025, and also picked up his first victory of the 2026 season in Las Vegas earlier this year.
NASCAR will then head to Charlotte Motor Speedway, where the Roval has been replaced by the traditional oval this year. Hamlin won at Charlotte in overtime back in 2022. Phoenix follows Charlotte, and it is another track where Hamlin has two wins, the most recent coming in 2019.
Talladega, which will host the third-to-last race of the season, is a track where Hamlin hasn’t always found his best form. Even so, he has two wins at the iconic superspeedway.
Martinsville will be the final stop before Homestead, and Hamlin has six wins at the short track, the most recent coming in 2025. Homestead hasn’t always been kind to him either, but Hamlin knows what it takes to win there. He has three victories at the track, the last of which came in 2020 for his 40th Cup Series win.
Hamlin currently sits ninth on the all-time Cup Series wins list with 64 victories. Can he add to that tally during the Chase? More importantly, can he finally get his hands on that elusive championship trophy? Maybe, just maybe, the 20th time will be lucky for Hamlin.