Up next is probably the most thrilling race in the playoffs. The Xfinity 500, the penultimate race of the 2025 NASCAR Cup Series postseason, will be flagged off at Martinsville Speedway this weekend. And the fates of four drivers direly depend on it.

William Byron, Ryan Blaney, Chase Elliott, and Joey Logano are all below the elimination cutline. So all of them need to target a victory at the short track. Yet the dilemma remains that all 8 playoff drivers are ridiculously good at the ‘Paperclip.’ So, who will save their season from spiraling?

Who Has One Last Chance to Enter the Championship 4?

The beauty about this weekend’s race is that any of the eight drivers could win. Among the desperate crowd, William Byron is the only driver alongside Blaney to have multiple wins in the Next Gen car at Martinsville. Both of Byron’s victories came in the spring, although he has finished in the top 10 in only two of the last five. Chase Elliott, Byron’s Hendrick Motorsports teammate, has led 557 laps at the ‘Paperclip’ since 2022. He won just once in the penultimate race of 2020, the year of his lone Cup Series title. At that time, Elliott led 236 laps and gapped the second-place car by more than six seconds.

Then there are the Team Penske stars, who look promising. Ryan Blaney is in the spotlight, as he is the two-time defending winner of the race. Notably, he made a clutch pass on Elliott late in the race to take the lead and win last year. But that’s no guarantee he’ll perform this time around.

Speaking of clutch victories, Blaney’s teammate is probably the most prominent in this regard. For Joey Logano, Martinsville has brought consistent results – he has a pair of runner-up finishes, a top 10 in every race. But heading to the short track, the reigning champ knows nothing less than a win would suffice. Logano said, “It’s not a bad track for us. I mean, it’s simple in what to do. At this point, it’s all or nothing. Stage points aren’t going to matter. Nothing’s going to matter. We’re too far back. You just got to go win.”

Evidently, all four drivers have solid chances. However, the bad news for them is that the drivers above the cutline are strong bosses to defeat in Martinsville. Denny Hamlin is a 6-time Martinsville winner, and Chase Briscoe has no finishes worse than 15th in the Next Gen car. Both are already locked into the Championship 4.

Kyle Larson and Christopher Bell, who are strong in points, also have good chances. Larson has six consecutive top-six finishes at Martinsville, and Bell finished second at Martinsville earlier this year. So we need to dive deeper to see which drivers can actually make it through.

Can William Byron’s Fight Against Momentum Loss at Martinsville?

After William Byron won the regular season championship, he has hit a string of misfortunes in the playoffs. Most recently, his No. 24 Chevy crashed into Ty Dillon’s No. 10 in Las Vegas due to the latter slowing down for a pit stop. Byron was otherwise in good contention to win, but that incident derailed his hopes. Finally, he incurred a last-lap spin through the tri-oval at Talladega. As a result, this left Byron stranded in must-win territory at Martinsville, being 36 points below the cutline.

In the last three years at the Paperclip, William Byron has either won the race, run in the back half of the top 10, or been a complete afterthought for the win. He will need a fast car and a flawless race to have a chance. What’s more, Byron will also reckon with his competitors, each of whom has legitimate chances to upset his ambitions.

The No. 24 Chevy driver’s situation is simple. Either win the 2025 Xfinity 500 or go home. “Looks like all guys below cut have to win,” Byron admitted. “So we just got to go there and do that. We’ve had two strong weeks, but no results. And, um, just gotta try the best you can.”

Will Ryan Blaney Be Able to Make A Redemption Bid at Martinsville?

Last weekend in Talladega, the Team Penske grid was left frustrated. Ryan Blaney and Joey Logano were frontrunners. But due to a lack of push from Brad Keselowski, they lost their speed on the drafting track. So Blaney will grit his teeth and try to defend his 2024 Martinsville trophy. He leads the entire field with a 4.6 average finish and a whopping 42 points scored per Martinsville race in this car. Blaney’s average finish of 8.5 at Martinsville ranks third all-time among drivers who have made at least six starts, trailing only Lee Petty (5.5 average finish) and Jeff Gordon (6.7).

What’s more, Ryan Blaney also ranks first in overall speed and long run speed on short tracks this season, according to Racing Insights data. So the No. 12 Team Penske fold is definitely in the conversation for a Martinsville victory. But it all depends on whether lightning will strike twice, and whether Blaney will fend off his determined competitors.

However, despite his stellar record at the ‘Paperclip’, Blaney is being realistic about his chances. He said, “So what, we’ve won there twice? It’s up and down, you never know what’s going to happen year after year. The people that have been saying, ‘Oh, Blaney is going to win Martinsville.’ It’s hard. I don’t know what speed we’re going to have. It’s nice that we’ve won there a couple of times, but we’ve got to dig down deep for this one.”

Can Chase Elliott Make A Quiet Comeback, Or Will Joey Logano Clutch Legacy?

Chase Elliott is the worst in points among all 8 playoff drivers. Being 62 points below the cutline, he is the only driver on this list who cannot mathematically point his way in. Elliott was collected in a crash in Talladega and finished 40th, and that has dropped him to this dire position. To make matters worse, he has done everything at Martinsville in the Next Gen car except win. Nevertheless, Chase Elliott still has that small chance. He has finished in the top 10 in six of the last seven Martinsville races. Also, he has led 1,275 laps at the Paperclip, his most at any Cup track.

However, all these bright factors may go down the drain if Joey Logano plays his clutch card again. The Team Penske driver’s playoff legacy is built on clutch performances. In 2024, he miraculously dodged elimination from the Round of 8 and won two races to win his third Cup Series title. Moreover, he has 12 consecutive top-10 finishes at Martinsville. So who knows, Logano might cover up that 38-point gap this weekend.

Evidently, all four drivers below the cutline have legitimate chances to win in Martinsville. That spells a solid recipe for high-drama excitement and competition. Let’s wait and see who makes it through!