It seems that at the start of almost every NASCAR Cup season, we hear the same prediction: this is FINALLY going to be Bubba Wallace’s year. Delusions of multiple wins, capped off by a Cup championship, permeate heading into the season-opening Daytona 500.

Unfortunately, instead of wins and championships, Wallace typically ends each season the same way he did the previous season, and the previous season before that, and the previous season before that …. and, well, you get the idea.

But Wallace has begun the 2026 season with his best-ever start to any Cup season. In the first four events, he’s finished with three top-10 finishes and no lower than 11 in the final results: 10th in the season-opening Daytona 500, followed by eighth at Atlanta, 11th at Austin, and so far a season-best sixth at Phoenix.

Given how his teammate, Tyler Reddick, set a NASCAR record of becoming the first driver in the sport’s history to win the first three races of a new season, Wallace’s achievements have somewhat been overshadowed by his 23XI Racing compadre’s performance. But that doesn’t diminish what the driver of the No. 23 Xfinity Toyota Camry XSE has managed to achieve, as he’s been in contention to win in all four of those contests.

Last season’s Brickyard 400 win was life-changing for Wallace

Wallace came into this season with three career wins in his first eight full-time Cup seasons. No win was bigger, and was finally something that began to make fans sit up and take notice of Bubba and what he was indeed capable of – more wins and potentially and eventually a Cup championship – than his convincing win last summer in the Brickyard 400.

That momentum gained in Indianapolis has continued on in more ways than one. Wallace has greater confidence, as does his team, after some points where their own confidence in him may have seemed suspect. Team co-owners Michael Jordan and Denny Hamlin are both happy with Wallace’s performance in 2026, and optimism is high at 23XI for not only Reddick but Bubba, as well. They come into this Sunday’s Pennzoil 400 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway ranked first and third, respectively, along with 24th-ranked teammate Riley Herbst.

No other Toyota-powered team has come anywhere close to Reddick’s and Wallace’s combined performance thus far this season – but then again, no Toyota driver other than Reddick has won any of the first four races, either.

Wallace is much different — and happier — than he’s ever been in his NASCAR career

It wasn’t long ago that rumors began circulating that Bubba’s seemingly continual race after race also-ran performance could perhaps lead to his downfall at 23XI. But so many things have happened in recent years that the Bubba of today is a far cry from the Bubba of, say, three or four years ago.

He’s happily and solidly married, is due to become a second-time father any day now, his admitted longtime battle with depression is in check and he’s in one of the best places he’s been in mentally in his career. His criticism of others in the sport and controversy that he’s been in the center of (like the noose imbroglio at Talladega a few years ago), his team is fully behind him, and vice versa with him being fully behind them, something that hasn’t always been the case. In the past, even if it was clear Bubba made a mistake or did something wrong, he’d oftentimes seem to blame someone else, like an opposing driver or even his own team members, rather than man up himself.

“Just the communication, you feel more confident in each other, and that continues to evolve and grow over the years,” Wallace said. “It doesn’t matter if it’s Year 1 or Year 20, you learn something new about the people you work with every day. It’s just being more comfortable and putting that all together.”

Some may call it, at long last, the final maturation of Wallace. Instead of being the seemingly angry young man that he has been portrayed as for so long, he’s calmed down, quieted down, and is letting his driving do his talking for him. The change in his demeanor was quite evident coming into Daytona this year.

“I feel good about our chances, we’ve obviously grown and matured as a team from last year and from the start of 23XI and the start of the 23 team we’ve grown in a lot of spots,’ he said at Daytona 500 media day. “(We’ve) come into this year more confident and more focused. We’ve just got to dot our i’s and cross our t’s. I think I say that every year here at Daytona. We just have to put it all together.”

And putting it all together is what he’s done, not just for Daytona but for every race he’s been in this season. That’s why it will not be a surprise if his first of what potentially could be multiple wins this season is right around the corner, perhaps as soon as Sunday in Sin City. But it won’t be Wallace getting the job done by himself. His team, particularly second-year crew chief Charles Denike, is equally important to the overall success equation.

“Charles is super easy going; I think I am too,” Wallace said. “We have a really good relationship that started right off the bat. That helps new pairings and new relationships. He’s been very confident in the work he’s been doing.

“He’s the type of person who takes his job very seriously. He pays attention to detail, and I’m excited to have another trip around the sun with him.”

What Wallace has to focus on Sunday in Las Vegas

Don’t be surprised to see Wallace focus on stage points more so than any other race thus far this season because stage wins or strong stage finishes seem to go hand-in-hand at Las Vegas.

For example, to date, the Stage 1 winner has gone on to win the overall Vegas race six times, the most of any track on the NASCAR schedule. And the Stage 2 winner has gone on to win 10 of the 17 races at LVMS with stages, again, the most of any NASCAR track.

Wallace has 16 career starts at the high-speed 1.5-mile oval just a few miles north of the famous Las Vegas Strip, with a best finish of fourth in early 2023 and sixth in early 2020.

With four races already down and 32 to go, Wallace is indeed ready to keep things going in the right direction – something that he couldn’t always say in the past – and that’s a reflection of where he and 23XI are pointing toward in the future. When asked about that direction, it’s clear Wallace has learned a lot from Jordan, particularly when it comes to philosophy and motivation for success.

In fact, when it comes to talking about what direction he wants to see 23XI take going forward, if you didn’t know any better, you’d swear it was MJ talking — that’s how much Jordan, his competitive spirit, and his winning philosophy have rubbed off on Wallace.

“We want to disrupt the big three (JGR, Hendrick, Penske),” Wallace said. “We want to put our name in that category, and they are really passionate about that. So just high expectations. It starts with waking up with the right attitude, being present, being on time, and giving it your all every day.

“How can you be better than the previous day? It’s understanding that mindset and adapting to that is going to be huge for us. Just keep pushing. This sport is really hard, the big three have been around for a while. Key people come and go, and they insert their philosophies. We are still growing but we’ve already done some pretty cool things in a short amount of time, and we have to keep pushing for more.”

Yes, Bubba is perhaps happier than he ever has been in his NASCAR career. But like his start to this season, he’s just getting warmed up for even bigger and better things going forward, both professionally and personally.

“Being around people and realizing that having my wife and my child and being at home, there’s nothing better than that,” Wallace said. “I put racing in front for a lot of years. Realizing that family and surrounding yourself with people you want to be around is it.

“Life is lovely, no complaints.”