Veteran NASCAR journalist Jeff Gluck is having second thoughts about the ongoing Cup Series championship picture, and his latest assessment comes with a blunt reminder of how quickly the Chase can change.
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Gluck was among those who suggested Kyle Larson was out of the championship fight after Darlington. But now, he has had to eat humble pie, as he admitted that that take was “the worst-aged thing ever.” With five races to go and the points gaps still manageable, Gluck believes the title fight is far more open than it appeared not long ago.
“I think as each passing week goes by, I’m starting to feel like this is actually way more wide open than we may think,” Gluck said on “The Teardown” podcast. “After Darlington, we went through, and we’re like, ‘All right, Larson’s already out of it.’ That was like the worst-aged thing ever possible. At least I said that.”
The comment comes after the South Point 400 at Las Vegas, a race that will be memorable for many reasons.
In the opening stint, Kyle Larson looked in a tough spot as he dropped eight positions. The tension was heightened by a 26-second pit stop for major adjustments, which led to him falling a lap behind. Yet the Hendrick driver recovered brilliantly to finish second, keeping almost every major rival from making significant progress against him.
That is exactly why Gluck believes nobody near the top of the standings can afford to be written off.
However, that’s not to say that Larson’s advantage is untouchable. The Las Vegas Motor Speedway highlighted one potential weakness in his points strategy.
Despite finishing second and battling Chase Briscoe for the victory late in the race, Larson scored only 36 points because he earned just one stage point. According to Gluck, that is important because the level of points Larson had been collecting earlier in the Chase is extremely difficult to maintain.
“We talk about averaging 40, and he was making it look easy averaging 59 points or whatever,” Gluck continued in the interaction. “But he has a 2.2 average finish, and his average points got dragged down today. It’s really, really hard to keep up that level of points scoring.”
According to Gluck, the key is not simply finishing ahead of Larson. It is asserting dominance; scoring a huge points haul, as he did at Kansas with a perfect 76-point day, that can completely change the standings.
“And if you are somebody that can go have these big monster points days, having two great stages and winning, you’re not out of it at all,” added Gluck.
That is where Chase Briscoe suddenly enters the conversation. Just one race earlier at Kansas, he had slipped 123 points behind Larson after losing a late battle for the victory. Back then, he conceded that his championship chances had probably disappeared.
But at Las Vegas, Briscoe responded by sweeping both stages, leading 175 laps and winning the race. He scored 75 points, moved up two positions in the standings and cut his deficit to 84 points.
That 39-point gain on Larson in a single race is what Gluck believes should stop people from writing off any driver in the standings just yet.
“I mean, can you really count a Blaney out at 80 back? Can you count a Briscoe at 84 back? There’s no way right now to say Briscoe’s done at 84 back. I mean, of course we were saying when he was 123 out, ‘No way,’ but I think that’s a mistake.”
Another important factor working in Briscoe’s favour is that his second victory of the season came on a 1.5-mile track, just like his win at Chicagoland Speedway earlier this year. The Charlotte Oval is the final 1.5-mile track in this three-race stretch before the Chase moves to Phoenix, Talladega and Martinsville, further making things interesting for the JGR driver.
Larson’s lead remains significant, but the standings show just how many drivers are still within striking distance. Second-placed Hamlin is 40 points behind, while Christopher Bell is -55 at third, Joey Logano -71 in fourth, and Ryan Blaney -80 in fifth. Briscoe sits sixth, 84 points behind the leader.
That means six drivers are separated by fewer than 85 points with five races left.
Hamlin lost another 14 points to Larson at Las Vegas after finishing 16th, while Bell lost five after a power-steering failure dropped him to 23rd. Logano lost four despite finishing 10th, while Blaney gained 11 after a fifth-place finish.
The Penske situation is also an interesting one to look into. Even though Logano believes the team is improving at intermediate tracks, he admitted that his 10th-place pace at Las Vegas was “not good enough to win championships.” In comparison, Blaney sounded more hopeful in his post-race interaction, as he had said he was “very, very pleased with the progress we’ve made from Kansas to here on all of our cars.”
Back to Logano’s situation. The P10 finish may not be enough to challenge Larson on its own. But as Gluck points out, the championship is not going to be decided by one driver’s average finish. A single monster weekend can change the entire standings.
Kyle Larson’s own outing at Las Vegas proved that point from the opposite direction. That is why Gluck is now resisting the urge to make another early championship prediction.
“Anybody that can win two or three out of the final five races is still going to be in this right now, if you’re in eighth or higher in points, probably, right? Briscoe is very much in this. They have some good tracks left. They could make a run,” the veteran journo concluded.
After his Darlington prediction aged about as badly as possible, Gluck is now taking the opposite approach. One might be tempted to say maybe he’s playing safe?
Who knows?
With five races remaining, the conclusion is that nobody near the front is out of the title fight just yet.