Kyle Larson had a warning for everyone before the Phoenix race weekend: the No. 5 Chevrolet simply wasn’t fast enough at the Arizona track. He even admitted that looking at the team’s average speed would explain why he felt they “suck” at Phoenix. It sounded like a familiar case of a driver managing expectations, but Sunday gave Larson little reason to change his tune. After struggling to find pace throughout the race, the championship leader’s afternoon ended in a crash and a costly DNF. And when he finally explained what went wrong, Larson had little to hide behind.

“I’m not surprised,” Kyle Larson said in a post-race interview (via Jeff Gluck on X). “I think you guys thought I was lying to you all week when I said we weren’t good here. So, I mean, I didn’t expect to be good, but I didn’t expect to be that bad either. Yeah, we were just trying to kind of fight as much as we could and just scratch them off or whatever finish we’re gonna get.”

Larson had warned everyone before the Freeway Insurance 500 that his No. 5 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet was a “eight- to 13th-place car” at Phoenix. Sunday proved those concerns were justified, as the reigning champion endured a miserable afternoon that ended with a late crash and a 34th-place finish. What made the result especially costly was the timing.

With the Chase entering its final stretch, Larson needed to protect his points advantage. Instead, his closest rivals gained valuable ground while he left Arizona with plenty of work ahead.

The trouble started during Saturday’s qualifying session. Larson struggled to find the right balance in his Chevrolet and could manage only 22nd on the starting grid. His concerns continued once the green flag dropped. A two-tire strategy late in Stage 1 failed to deliver the improvement the team needed, and Larson slipped back to 22nd by the end of the opening stage.

He then lost more ground during Stage 2, eventually falling a lap down and finishing the segment in 27th. With no stage points from either segment, he had little to show for the first two portions of the race.

Larson briefly returned to the lead lap through a wave-around during a Lap 157 caution, but the recovery never materialized. With 31 laps remaining, a tire went down as he entered Turn 1, sending the No. 5 Chevrolet up the track and into the outside wall. The damage forced him behind the wall and ended his race. He was credited with 34th, turning an already frustrating weekend into a major setback.

In March, he finished third at Phoenix for the third consecutive time, despite describing the car as badly off the pace. His career numbers at the one-mile oval have been strong, including six top-10 finishes in the last eight starts before Sunday. However, Larson has repeatedly stressed that he wants to control races rather than rely on strategy and execution to salvage results. This time, even that familiar recovery never came.

The DNF also tightened the Chase standings considerably. Larson entered Phoenix with a 49-point cushion over Denny Hamlin, but left with only a five-point lead over now-second-placed Christopher Bell. Chase Briscoe sits third, 24 points behind, followed by Hamlin, 31 points behind. Ryan Blaney trails by 40, Joey Logano by 44, and Phoenix winner Tyler Reddick by 56. With three races remaining, Larson’s margin for error has narrowed sharply.

Now, with Talladega next, the No. 5 team must regroup quickly. His championship hopes remain alive, but after a weekend that unfolded almost exactly as he feared, the pressure has risen.