The NBA’s multi-billion-dollar expansion push is entering a critical stretch. The finish line, however, appears farther away than many would have anticipated. Adam Silver said the league intends to decide on potential Seattle and Las Vegas expansion teams by the end of 2026, but an insider report could leave millions of fans heartbroken. And the NBA’s own front on the project makes matters even worse…

The league and PJT Partners (an advisory financial firm) have instructed interested investment groups in Las Vegas and Seattle to submit detailed portfolios outlining cap-table sketches, equity structures, and a potential price they’d pay for the team. But this request for a proposal on paper guarantees nothing.

Ahead of a high-stakes Board of Governors meeting scheduled for September, commissioner Silver maintains a cautious tone and has “not committed” to an expansion. In fact, according to The Athletic‘s Mike Vorkunov, “the league may exit this process” without adding any new teams at all.

This will be a huge blow for the population in Seattle (many of whom have supported the SuperSonics) and Las Vegas, putting more than a million people’s interests in jeopardy. Amid the newfound panic, however, the league has “declined” to comment on the expansion process.

Las Vegas bidders reportedly face a second deadline in September for deeper financial vetting, with industry insiders anticipating the NBA will select a Sin City owner before formally finalizing a decision for Seattle. It appears to be heading in this order because of the superior interest level in Las Vegas.

The NHL’s Vegas Golden Knights mogul Bill Foley, Walmart’s Nancy and Bill Laurie, and a group led by legendary NBA executive Jerry Colangelo are reported to be the frontrunners for a Vegas franchise. New Lakers owners Josh Kushner and Bob Iger were also preparing a bid before speaking to Mark Walter.

“We did a couple things really well,” Foley told The Athletic. “We’re going to do it on steroids with an NBA team.”

Foley also revealed that he knew of five groups, aside from his, that wanted to own the Las Vegas team. Lakers legend Magic Johnson and his ownership group ‘MAGI’ were reportedly in discussions with local stakeholders and leaders, including Governor Joe Lombardo, but have gone quiet in recent months.

Meanwhile, the situation on the Seattle front isn’t the most… happening. That’s probably because Samantha Holloway (One Roof Sports and Entertainment) is the only known bidder seeking to bring an NBA team back to Seattle.

“If done the right way, [an NBA team] is additive,” Holloway told The Athletic. “It’s been important that we’ve had enough time to build the Kraken brand and get to where we want to be. There’s always room to grow, but it’s a great time to add basketball, and they’re complementary if done correctly.”

The NBA has decent relationships with both cities. The reigning WNBA champs, the Las Vegas Aces, primarily represent the sport in the entertainment capital. Las Vegas has also solidified its status as an international basketball hub, hosting Summer League and early NBA Cup tournaments.

On the other hand, Seattle has a rich basketball history, and the league has reportedly long wanted to add a franchise back since it moved out in 2008. Although public bidders in Seattle remain limited, Silver has assured that non-public interest in returning to the Pacific Northwest remains strong.

What is a (potential) major roadblock for the new NBA expansion teams?

Price tags.

Adam Silver has reportedly told NBA governors that he anticipates astronomical price tags between $7 billion and $10 billion per expansion franchise. According to Mike Vorkunov, the Vegas franchise is expected to be on the higher end of that range, “floating $9 billion,” while Seattle is “expected to draw less.”

Recent team sales provide context: the Celtics changed ownership at a roughly $6.1 billion valuation, while the Lakers saw a controlling stake sale valued at about $10 billion before a subsequent unexpected agreement pushed that figure to approximately $12.5 billion within only 14 months. The Trail Blazers also sold for roughly $4.25 billion.

Interestingly, when CNBC ranked all NBA franchises by their values, the Lakers ($10 billion), Golden State Warriors ($10.8 billion), and New York Knicks ($10.1 billion) were the only teams surpassing the $9 billion threshold.

While the influx of such staggeringly high expansion fees could yield a massive short-term windfall, diluting existing league equity from 1/30 to 1/32 ownership shares requires long-term revenue projections that justify expanding the pie.

The Commissioner had earlier revealed that some existing team owners believed the league “frankly, doesn’t need to expand,” though he classified those views as “considerations” rather than “concerns.”

Silver, however, cautioned that even though he appreciates the external interest in the league’s expansion plan, “no votes” have been taken yet. He also mentioned that he’s “optimistic” about the future.

As September’s Board of Governors assembly approaches, the league must determine whether prospective bids meet its lofty financial thresholds or if the NBA will walk away from expansion altogether.

The expansion teams (if finalized) would debut in the 2028-29 season at the earliest.