The Heat’s acquisition of Klay Thompson, who shoots 40.9 percent from the three-point range, has generated discussion, with national media outlets doubting their championship prospects and assigning them odds of only seven to one for the title.
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On CBS Sports, analyst John Gonzalez offered his perspective on why the move’s merit diminishes when compared to other conference contenders.
“I think that it’s a good fit for Klay,” Gonzalez said. “It’s a good fit for Miami. The problem is what you just went through. The Eastern Conference is really good.”
He was talking about the superiority of the East compared two years ago. He pointed out the conference, which used to be considered inferior to the West, has teams like the New York Knicks as defending champions, the Boston Celtics with a solid team led by Jayson Tatum, and the Philadelphia 76ers with Jaylen Brown and LeBron James.
Gonzalez did not simply leave the odds alone. He went straight for the numbers that Vegas has already assigned to Miami. “When you look at the odds, according to the betting lines, there are seven to win the Eastern Conference. I think that’s about right. Their win total over/under is 44.5. I think that’s about right,” Gonzalez said.
With a total win total of 44.5 games, this is almost spot-on based on how the team performed last year, when they posted a record of 43-39 and were eliminated by the Charlotte Hornets during the play-in game. This number is more of an evaluation rather than a projection of what’s to come.
That context made way for Gonzalez’s harshest words regarding Thompson himself.
“I don’t know that Klay Thompson really changes any of those numbers. I think that they’ll be pretty solidly a play-in team at the very least, maybe fighting for the playoffs proper,” Gonzalez added.
Thompson scored only 11.7 points per game last season, which is the lowest point in his career, while his percentage from the field was 39.3 and from the free-throw line 76.6, which are again the lowest in his career.
Miami’s offseason was transformed by its acquisition of two-time MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo and Bobby Portis from Milwaukee, a deal that sent Tyler Herro, Kel’el Ware, Jaime Jaquez Jr., Kasparas Jakučionis and significant draft compensation to the Bucks. Norman Powell then departed in free agency, agreeing to a two-year deal with the Chicago Bulls.
With Klay Thompson expected to sign after clearing waivers from his Dallas buyout, Miami’s projected core would include Antetokounmpo, Bam Adebayo, Thompson, Andrew Wiggins, Bobby Portis and Davion Mitchell. The central roster question is whether that group has enough perimeter creation, shooting, and depth to contend in the Eastern Conference.
For Thompson, this decision signifies a reconnection with his core values. In April, Thompson remembered Steve Kerr’s words: “Kerr used to tell me, ‘We don’t get paid because it’s fun, you get paid because it’s really hard and you have to deal with those obstacles that come at you.'”
The Mavericks opted for a buyout over a trade due to the limited appeal of the 36-year-old’s $17.5 million contract, as expressed by team president Masai Ujiri, who thanked Thompson for his contributions.
This allows Dallas to shift its focus entirely to rebuilding its team through the draft pick Cooper Flagg in 2025, while Miami adds an experienced shooter to an offense that struggled to shoot three-pointers last season. Gonzalez’s opinion seems to be that just fixes will not help them beat this conference.