The Golden State Warriors as we have known them for the last decade-plus are nearly extinct. Head coach Steve Kerr even referred to them as a “fading dynasty.” A statement that rings even more true when you consider that his deal just expired, Draymond Green is a free agent (with a 27.7-million-dollar player option), and Stephen Curry has just one year left on his contract.

Fans of the era can only realistically hope that the team prolongs their inevitable rebuild for one last stanza and brings back Kerr and Green on a single-season basis so the trio can take one last bite at the apple.

Are The Warriors Worth Salvaging?

Remember, there is no dynasty without Curry, Green, and Kerr. It doesn’t matter what kind of team you put around them if those three don’t have enough gas left in the tank.

Historical precedent isn’t on their side. In NBA history, there has only been one guard who played over 30 minutes per game and posted a Box Plus-Minus (BPM) of 5 or higher (which is what Curry did this season) in their age-38 season or later, and that was John Stockton in 2001-02 (when he was 39, per Stathead). Meanwhile, Green is coming off a regular season where he posted the worst Defensive Estimated Plus-Minus of his career, even including his rookie season (per Dunks & Threes).

Curry and Green both demonstrated that they can ramp up the intensity to a version of their peak selves in high-intensity matchups. In their first round play-in clash against the Los Angeles Clippers, Curry scored 35 points on 23 field goal attempts, while Green put Kawhi Leonard in a straightjacket (anchoring the unit that held Kawhi to seven points in 20 second-half minutes). And as recently as last postseason, the Warriors were still able to put up an +8.4 net rating in the 208 minutes Curry and Green shared together (per PBP Stats). They will need some help eating innings in the regular season (more on this in a bit), but when the postseason rolls around, this dynamic duo can still put their cape on for stretches.

As for Kerr, while he is the oldest of the group (will be 61 by the start of next season), age doesn’t necessarily prohibit someone from doing their job on the sidelines (just ask Tom Izzo!). The game has certainly caught on to the advanced concepts that once made their offense feel cutting edge, with split cuts and off-ball movement now widely adopted across the league and he’s very particular about the types of players he allocates minutes to (just ask Jonathan Kuminga), but Kerr’s stoic demeanor, coupled with the unbreakable bond he’s formed with the franchise’s two most beloved stars is enough where he can still be the right man for the job on a contending team.

How do we know all this? Well, before Jimmy Butler III went down with a torn ACL, Golden State was 25-19 with the eighth-best net rating in the NBA (+3.5) and the sixth-best in the Western Conference (despite Curry being absent for ten of those games). Since Butler was acquired at last season’s trade deadline, the Warriors are 51-27 in regular season/playoff games/play-in games that Butler appears in. All of those guys will be a little older, but with the right additions this offseason, Golden State could potentially squeeze out enough from these three guys to be a dangerous team once more.

The Ultimate Offseason Wishlist

Contrary to public opinion, what Golden State needs is not to go big game hunting for the likes of LeBron James or Kawhi Leonard (unless the Los Angeles Clippers would be game for a package around Butler and some picks). If we’ve learned anything from the failed superteams of the last few years, it’s that you need youth, lineup balance, and depth, not a roster stacked with aging stars.

Outside of Curry, Green (hopefully), and Butler, the other key returners are Gui Santos, Brandin Podziemski, and Moses Moody. Moody will likely be lost for the season, but both Santos and Podziemski had meaningful growth while Curry and Butler were out that will help them next season.

(As an aside, it would also be wise for Golden State to retain Quentin Post and De’Anthony Melton, if they can get them at the right price). 

Santos will be only 24 next season, and his blend of rim pressure (72% from the rim, 81st percentile), occasional shooting (career 34.7%), offensive rebounding (82nd percentile), and defense (73rd percentile block and steal rates, per Cleaning the Glass) could make him the Warriors’ version of Jordan Walsh.

Podziemski has gotten a lot of flack for how highly the front office claims to view him. But, this year, he really has taken some notable strides — posting career highs in scoring volume (17.5 points per 75 possessions) and efficiency (58.3% true shooting). He will be only 23 years old when next season starts and may finally mature his game enough to take on the role as third banana behind Curry and Butler offensively.

In a perfect world, the Warriors use the remainder of their cap space, signing mechanisms, and draft capital to find three key pieces: a point-of-attack defender, a rim-protecting center, and a secondary shot creator.

Keep in mind when you are looking at some of the affordable options we have listed, the Warriors are also projected to have the eleventh overall pick in the draft, so that is another pathway for them to obtain a win-now piece (like Yaxel Lendeborg).

The odds of them finding all of these pieces and being able to afford them are extremely slim. Just taking a cursory glance at what could be out there this offseason, Quentin Grimes seems to check both the first and third boxes, but his defensive impact has fallen off a level from what it was at the beginning of his career, and after waiting a year to hit unrestricted free agency, he won’t be in the mood for bargaining. The same goes for Ayo Dosunmu (outside of the part about him taking a qualifying offer).

Kristaps Porzingis could be convinced to take a discount to be a part of the West Coast iteration of The Last Dance. When he was healthy, he was still insanely effective (34th in the NBA in EPM), but pairing him with Curry, Butler, and Green would give Golden State an excess of guys who need to be load managed.

Collin Sexton is still pretty young (27) and athletic, but he is too small and has an awful track record as a defender. The same goes for someone like Kevin Porter Jr. (although he has become a great defensive playmaker over the last two years). Robert Williams III is a monster rim protector (98th percentile block rate), but he’s one of the few bigs with a longer injury history than Porzingis.

At the end of the day, it would take the ultimate offseason for the Warriors to keep Curry, Butler, and Green together and fully address all three of these weaknesses. So, their best bet is to take a similar route to what the Phoenix Suns and Boston Celtics did last season. Grab as much cheap, raw athleticism as you can and trust your staff to develop them internally. If even just one or two of them hits for you, that will help them check the first box, and if those wings/forwards are strong/springy enough, it won’t matter that Green is too small to be a center. Then, you just trust Podziemski to step into that secondary creator role whenever Curry or Butler needs the night off and add another cheap ballhandler in free agency.

Some names that could fit this characterization are Josh Minott, Olivier-Maxence Prosper, Ochai Agbaji, and Andre Jackson Jr. (for some of these names, their current team would have to decline their team option). If they do want to take another stab at a three-and-d, Micah Potter could also be a good dart throw. I know that none of these names are super tantalizing, but neither were guys like Jordan Goodwin and Ron Harper Jr. before the start of this year.

Can The Warriors Actually Pull This Off?

Yes, the Warriors “can” theoretically re-tool around Curry, Green, and Kerr (and probably Butler) to field a team that has a puncher’s chance of winning the NBA Championship in 2027.

Is it probable, or even semi-likely? Absolutely not. Even when the Warriors’ trio is healthy, they have clear needs (the ones we outlined above) that are very hard to find given how much money they have invested in the triumvirate. And even if they do optimize this core and get sizable improvement from Podziemski and Santos, could they really stand a chance against the Oklahoma City Thunder or San Antonio Spurs? Probably not.

I’m all for being loyal to your stars and the nostalgia of trying to take one last stab at glory with three of the most legendary faces in your organization’s history. But sentiment does not win championships, roster construction does. Golden State can delay the rebuild and maybe stay competitive for another year, but the reality is simple. Dynasties do not last forever, and this one is already closer to the end than anyone in the Bay would like to admit.