In 2016, Kevin Durant listened to pitches from five other franchises before choosing the Golden State Warriors. The Oklahoma City Thunder built around him, finished 55-27, and took the Western Conference Finals to a Game 7 after leading 3-1. Then they woke up to his resignation letter on The Players’ Tribune. NBA Insider Brian Windhorst has seen versions of this story play out before and has a cautionary message for the Denver Nuggets regarding Nikola Jokic.

“[Jokic] is going to be 31 this year,” Windhorst said on Hoop Collective. “The idea is that if he doesn’t sign now and he signs when he’s 32, he can sign all the way out to his 37, 36. So the idea is, why not guarantee yourself whatever, $70-whatever million at age 36, why not do that? And if you’re a Nuggets fan, you’re saying, ‘Sounds good. I’m going to go to sleep and sleep well.’”

“But if that’s the case, he’s got a player option for next year,” Windhorst continued. “You got people in Denver saying to me, ‘I know this guy as well as anybody, he ain’t going anywhere.’ And I’m not saying he is. I’m just saying, I don’t know how you can sleep well.”

Here’s the exact breakdown behind Jokic’s potential game plan and how it has panned out so far.

By waiting until the 2027 offseason, Nikola Jokic aims to forgo a four-year, $278 million deal in favor of a record five-year, $359.5 million supermax contract extension. He was also eligible in the 2025 offseason to sign a three-year, $212 million extension that would’ve kept him in Denver in his mid-30s.

However, Jokic decided not to, amid estimates that waiting a year would allow him to sign a deal with roughly $80 million more in guaranteed money. Now, a year later, he remains under contract for 2026-27 and owns a $62.8 million player option for 2027-28. And by declining that, he’ll be eligible for a five-year supermax that guarantees significantly more money than simply security.

In the last two years alone, superstars like Luka Doncic and Giannis Antetokounmpo left their respective franchises despite widespread optimism that they would stay. Both of those franchises believed they knew their star better than anyone. Both went to sleep confident. Both woke up to something different.

Why are the Nuggets so calm then?

On March 8, during an interview on the X&O’s CHAT podcast, Jokic explained his attachment to Denver.

“Even if we never win anything else after this, an organic title, it means more to me than anything. I really found peace here. My two kids were born here. Everyone’s here. Peace, home, I found my life here. And I like life here.”

Jokic’s public messaging has been consistent. He also said something similar in Serbian following the extension delay: “My idea is to sign next summer and stay with Denver for the rest of my career.”

But currently, the Nuggets have only a 7% chance of winning the West, and there are a few crucial reasons why that is so low.

Most recently, Denver paid a steep cost to bring back Spencer Jones after he became a critical part of the rotation last season. Tyus Jones returned on a one-year deal and remains the only backup guard on the bench.

Marvin Bagley was also brought in after the Nuggets let go of Jonas Valanciunas. The former No. 2 pick is an efficient scorer from within the three-point line and will be a strong addition behind Jokic.

These are decent additions.

But they do not balance out well with the departures. Denver’s biggest loss of the offseason is Tim Hardaway Jr, who joined the Miami Heat. The franchise also had to shed Valanciunas’ contract, and he moved overseas. Rotation players Bruce Brown and Jalen Pickett remain contractless.

The front office still needs to figure out the Peyton Watson situation. It is purely financial, where the player believes he is worth at least $25 million annually (like teammate Christian Braun), but Denver just does not have the room to navigate this situation freely.

After signing Spencer Jones by matching OKC’s offer, the Nuggets’ projected tax bill leaped from $32 million to $68 million, also sinking them into the second apron.

Although Watson’s restricted free agency saga drags on, the 23-year-old is rumored to be considering accepting a one-year, $6.5 million qualifying offer. But even extending that much cash in salary will take the Nuggets’ tax bill to $112 million!

“When you combine that with their total payroll, which would be about equal to that, maybe a little bit more in that $240-$250 million range, you’re talking about a $500 million roster between payroll and taxes just to keep Peyton Watson on a deal that he wants,” league insider Brett Siegel said.

Even if the Nuggets decide to bear the financial consequences, as established above, the roster still lacks capable backups. It’s largely why Jokic and Co. unexpectedly crashed out of the playoffs last season against the Timberwolves.

They have a lot riding (financially and tactically) on Jamal Murray and Aaron Gordon, with the latter playing only 36 games last season. The front office can still, of course, look for backups on the market and possibly be interested in mending their relationship with Russell Westbrook, who doesn’t have a team.

Denver’s Kroenke family has assured the fanbase that Jokic will not be on the market. Jokic has said the answer will come next summer. At this point, that could simply mean him locking in as much money as he can for post-retirement.

It is really hard to see how the Nuggets can, firstly, sustain until the playoffs and then spark a deep run with this roster.