The NBA has a shadowy vault of conspiracy theories that range from Michael Jordan’s secret retirement stories to Chris Paul’s trade veto saga in 2011. But the juiciest rumours are all linked to one aspect of the league, the NBA draft lottery. From the 1985 ‘frozen envelope’ rumours that saw Patrick Ewing join the New York Knicks to the Cleveland Cavaliers’ 2003 acquisition of LeBron James, when the franchise was in extreme turmoil, American basketball has a reputation for controversial side deals aimed at the ‘greater good’ of the league.

As we approach the culmination of the 2025-26 regular season, the rumour mills are working overtime yet again. This year’s draft conspiracy theories center around Stephen Curry and the Golden State Warriors. Bill Simmons, on the latest segment of The Ringer podcast, touched on this subject. He pointed out how multiple factors point towards the Dubs bagging a top-four pick, putting them in the market for prospects like BYU’s AJ Dybantsa, Kansas Jayhawks’ Darryn Peterson, or Duke’s Cameron Boozer.

“It’s obvious the Warriors are winning the lottery,” Simmons said on the show on Friday. “All the factors line up. Adam Silver wants to punish the tanking teams. Well, the Warriors aren’t a tanking team. The league doesn’t want to waste Steph’s last few years. They want to keep the Warriors a marquee franchise. Gifting the Warriors the top pick lets the team either add Peterson or Dybantsa to juice the Warriors’ core, or they trade it like the Cavs did for Giannis, or LeBron signs there.”

Simmons makes valid points in his opening argument. But then again, most conspiracy theories often have shades of truth to them. But putting an end to covert/overt tanking, cementing Curry’s legacy, and maintaining GSW’s brand value, or giving them leverage to trade for James, all seem like legit reasons for Adam Silver to tilt the scales in favour of Golden State.

Mike Dunleavy’s organization holds slim but intriguing odds for a high 2026 pick, especially if they exit early in the play-in tournament. Their chances sit at 2% for number one overall and 9.4% for top-four, making a lottery splash realistic without suspicion.

One can’t talk about draft conspiracies without referring to last year’s draft saga featuring the Dallas Mavericks. Nico Harrison’s Luka Doncic gamble paid off as they brought in potential ROTY Cooper Flagg. Anonymous sources talked about under-the-table deals initiated by Silver, but they will never be confirmed.

“They did it last year with Dallas,” Simmons added. “That was insane. That was the worst thing. I’ll never forgive the league for that. Funniest rigged lottery outcomes where we’d be like, ‘Oh my god, I can’t believe they did that.’ That was so blatant.”

Despite this speculation, surely league executives are not stupid enough to run the same storyline two years in a row. But based on the current trajectory of the league and with expansion talks doing the rounds, Silver needs to nail his branding strategy heading into the 2026-27 season.

Everything is fair in love and war, but when it comes to the business of basketball, there are no rules.

Is the NBA Draft lottery system actually rigged?

For decades, the NBA Draft lottery has been a lightning rod for suspicion. Scorned GMs, rabid fanbases often buy the conspiracy storylines that suggest the league’s invisible hand tilts fate toward marquee markets. Silver and previous league commissioners never address the topic, but that could be by design.

When it comes to business marketing, any publicity is good publicity, right? So why not allow fans to interpret their own conclusions from lottery odds and trade rumors? Anything that leads to above-average social media traction often leads to an increase in brand recognition and ultimately boosts revenue. It’s a pretty slick business tactic to keep the fans occupied, especially in the off-season.

However, the popular narrative suggests that they’re not rigged by any means. Don’t believe us? Then listen to what 17-year veteran Richard Jefferson had to say on this topic a year ago.

“Everyone wants to say it’s rigged, but the NBA likes that illusion of this,” the former player now-turned-analyst explained. “They like it. It’s part of the allure. The NBA is the most dramatic sport. It’s the second-biggest sport in the world, but it is the most dramatic…There’s billionaires out there competing for Cooper Flagg. You think the Washington Wizards owner (Ted Leonsis) is going to let something be rigged and miss out on a guy that changes his franchise? Steph [Curry] changed the Warriors’ franchise. It was like $450 million when [Joe Lacob] bought it, to $4 billion now. Players that change your franchise by billions? You think they’re just going to be like, ‘Oh, the Spurs got Wemby and Tim [Duncan]; it’s rigged.’”

Jefferson referenced the

Chris Paul trade veto from 2011 (when Commissioner Stern was in charge) as a perfect example of how franchise owners are more involved in the league’s collective decision-making than fans realise. “That’s why the Chris Paul trade didn’t go through. The Chris Paul trade didn’t go through to the Lakers because the owners stopped that sh*t. They was like, ‘Nah, we ain’t having that.’ But y’all think they’re going to let them rig the draft, or draft lottery? Come on,” he concluded.

It’s not just Jefferson making this argument. Back in 2012, former Warriors GM Bob Myers also gave his two cents on the draft lottery conspiracy rumours. “I don’t think anyone within our organization believes in the NBA draft lottery conspiracy theories,”  Myers said before ending with a light-hearted quip, “but if we lose our pick, we might change our minds.”

Who replaces Curry as the face of the Golden State Warriors?

Let’s play devil’s advocate and buy into this narrative that the Warriors bag at the very least a top-four pick for the sake of this argument. Bringing in a rook like Dybantsa (25.5 PPG, 6.8 RPG, 3.7 APG, 51.0% FG) elevates the Dubs to immediate top-four divisional contenders alongside the likes of Kristaps Porzingis, Brandin Podziemski, Gui Santos, Jimmy Butler, and, of course, Draymond Green. His explosive wing dominance vaults Golden State to instant two-way terror threats, slotting next to Curry like a modern Kevin Durant.

The 6’9” BYU wing thrives as a three-level scorer and is a projected number one pick. Critics will argue that he might be a bit of an overreach for GSW. But one potential draft pick who might be an unconventional option for the Warriors is Duke’s Cameron Boozer (22.5 PPG, 10.2 RPG, 4.1 APG).

Boozer, a freshman like AJ, is a polished power forward with Draymond-like vision and rebounding ability who could anchor the frontcourt without the positional overlap risk associated with Dybantsa. Boozer’s elite passing and midrange efficiency make him a natural complement to Curry’s off-ball magic.

The 18-year-old was involved in a heartbreaking loss to UConn last week. His twin brother, Cayden Boozer, was at fault for turning the ball over with seconds remaining, allowing freshman Braylon Mullins to score the game-winning points and upset the favourites.

He did, however, receive some good news this weekend when he was named AP National Player of the Year. In doing so, he became only the fifth freshman to win the coveted title. This solidifies him as a valuable option for Golden State if they land a top-four pick.

This ‘rigged’ top-four coup not only fixes the present, but also lays the groundwork for Curry’s future. When Boozer is combined with Santos’ shooting and Butler’s defence, you have the perfect recipe for kicking off the post-Steph era. Dybantsa entices as the headliner, but Boozer is the quiet franchise pivot, transforming lottery luck into the start of a new dynasty.