For a San Antonio Spurs team that lost 108 games over the last two seasons before this one, no one saw an immediate title push, but that has been the case.

Led by 22-year-old Victor Wembanyama, the Spurs have clinched a playoff berth this year with 11 games to spare. The Frenchman is averaging a joint career-high 24.3 points per game, along with 11.1 rebounds and 3.0 assists. This is only his third season in the NBA, and the fact that he is already having a career year says everything about him.

The last time Spurs fans were this excited about a 22-year-old was when they had Kawhi Leonard, who won the championship and the Finals MVP in 2014. That was the last title of a Spurs dynasty led by Greg Popovich, and the superstar who started it was also another 22-year-old by the name of Tim Duncan. By his second season, he hoisted the Larry O’Brien Trophy while also claiming Finals MVP. Wembanyama is putting up more numbers than the two former Spurs greats, but he has some great shoes to fill as a young superstar.

When San Antonio drafted Wembanyama first overall in 2023, they had the same plan as when they drafted Duncan 29 years ago at No. There is one from Wake Forest.

The concept was to create a franchise cornerstone capable of delivering championships, which Duncan accomplished with five titles in more than a decade. He won Rookie of the Year and was named to the All-NBA First Team after appearing in 82 regular-season games, a rookie record. He also won two MVP awards along the way.

The timeline is now pointing to another young franchise cornerstone, but in a different era.

Wembanyama did not play 82 games as a rookie, but he has been excellent since day one. The Spurs lost 60 games in his rookie season, but he was named Rookie of the Year and made the NBA All-Defensive Team, leading the league in blocks. By his second year, he was an NBA All-Star, and in his third, he is in the top three for MVP.

Everything is Duncan-esque, with the large question mark remaining a ring and possibly more rings as the years pass.

The Duncan Blueprint Will Be Difficult for Spurs to Replicate

Wembanyama’s ceiling appears to have grown faster than anyone else, including Duncan and Leonard. Duncan joined a San Antonio team that already featured a future Hall of Famer and one of the game’s best big men in David Robinson. Duncan, a veteran, was on Leonard’s team. Wembanyama had far fewer, but he has catapulted himself into MVP contention in his third year while leading the Spurs to their best record since the Leonard era.

Long-term stability was key to the Duncan dynasty’s success. Popovich, Duncan, Manu Ginobili, and Tony Parker have never left. In addition to Duncan’s leadership and a solid foundation, their perseverance was rewarded, and their patience paid off. Wembanyama is now operating in a completely different era, one in which stars can force trades to chase rings and franchises set “win-now” deadlines.

Wembanyama has the Spurs as contenders now, and while they may win one or two rings here and there, following Popovich and Duncan’s sustainable framework is unlikely in this day and age.

There is a reason why the Golden State Warriors were the NBA’s last dynasty, which lasted nearly five years. Championships are now frequently won in one-off seasons, and no defending champion has returned to the Finals since the Warriors in 2019. It doesn’t appear that will change anytime soon, as no one can truly tie a player to a franchise beyond his current contract.

Wembanyama’s current supporting cast includes De’Aaron Fox, Devin Vassell, rookie Dylan Harper, and second-year Stephon Castle, which is exciting and homegrown, mirroring the old Spurs model. But keeping that group intact through multiple title windows is a gamble, one that the current league math doesn’t favor. If they don’t win now or in the next few years, the front office will keep switching pieces around their French superstar, which could miss the point entirely of replicating the Duncan era.