A Chuck Guarantee comes with roughly a one-in-12 success rate, which makes it difficult to know whether Charles Barkley is reading the tea leaves correctly when it comes to LeBron James’ future. Barkley believes the writing is on the wall for the Los Angeles Lakers and their aging superstar—a stance that neatly splits the debate. Depending on where you stand, Chuck is either calling it exactly as it is or he’s about to be proven wrong by Shaquille O’Neal and Kenny Smith once again.

Ahead of the Lakers’ 129–99 blowout loss to the Cavaliers, James’ former team paid tribute with an emotional video and left the door open for a potential reunion. Given the circumstances, it may have been one of his final appearances in Cleveland. Still, Barkley’s read of the situation is more nuanced: he believes James could very well return to Cleveland—just not wearing purple and gold.

“One thing I’m sure of, this is his last year with the Lakers. He’s not going to play with the Lakers next year,” Barkley declared with trademark certainty even if he didn’t smash the Chuck Guarantee button. Earlier he was convinced James is retiring after the 23rd season and should receive honorary All-Star honors. This is a deviation from his most recent take.

“I’ve always said I’d like to see him finish in Cleveland. I’m not opposed to him getting traded to Cleveland this year, to be honest with you. Because the Eastern Conference is up for grabs.” When Kenny “The Jet” Smith tried to get a word in edgewise, Chuckster as usual cut in by declaring the Lakers are not contenders.

While he felt that LeBron James deserves a “farewell tour,” preferably in Cleveland, he pointed at the financial reality of the Lakers’ roster that makes James’ current $52.6 million salary unsustainable. “At some point, you’re going to have to turn the team over to Luka and Austin. Because you can’t be paying him $50 million a year to be the third-best player on the team.”

Lakers legend, Shaquille O’Neal, argued they still have a shot. Kenny argued that, as a fifth seed, with Nikola Jokic still injured and the overall health of the West in question, the Lakers have a fighting chance. But only Charles Barkley can change Charles Barkley’s opinion.

Charles Barkley’s expectations for LeBron James are bigger

Shaq and Kenny pushed back on Chuck’s take. As Inside the NBA tradition dictates, Sir Charles demanded to settle the debate the old way: by betting their entire paychecks on it. After some back-and-forth, Kenny put his money on the Lakers with Shaq’s financial backing. Chuck’s betting on the Nuggets or any team that’s not the Lakers.

The wager highlighted the massive debate on King James’ future. The NBA world is divided on whether he’ll quietly ride off into the sunset, make the 24th season a farewell tour, or go to another team after his Lakers contract ends this season.

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Whether he plays one more season or not, recent developments, such as reports alleging a rift between him and Jeanie Buss or his absence from team meetings, have led fans to believe that his relationship with the Lakers is effectively over.

While the hierarchy has shifted to Luka Doncic and the partnership he formed with Austin Reaves, tonight, Cleveland proved that Bron is still the heart of the Cavaliers franchise.

And just like how Barkley has urged the Golden State Warriors to focus on younger talent, he wants LeBron to pass the mantle to Luka and Austin. For Barkley, a return to Cleveland isn’t a demotion. It’s LeBron’s chance to compete in a wide-open East and go out in a blaze of glory.