The 2025-26 NBA Rookie of the Year race might just end with a plot twist. From the second he declared for the draft, Cooper Flagg became the undisputed, presumed “lock” for the award. But through the Dallas Mavericks’ rollercoaster season, his odds have now hit an all-time low. Contrary to Flagg’s hype entering the league, he could easily be dethroned. Flagg’s grip on the prestigious trophy is slipping in favor of ex-Duke teammate and Charlotte Hornets standout Kon Knueppel. The shift in momentum was solidified this week by a chorus of NBA legends who declared that the race is effectively over.

“He should be clear-cut Rookie of the Year,” former All-Star John Wall said during a pregame broadcast, explicitly backing Knueppel over the No. 1 pick of the 2025 draft.

The praise for Flagg’s rival didn’t stop there, as Hall of Fame playmaker Steve Nash highlighted the statistical dominance that has pushed Flagg out of the top spot.

“The efficiency, consistency, it’s outrageous,” Nash said of Knueppel’s maturity this season. “The amount of 3s he’s made clearly but off the move, off the dribble. Reads the pick-n-roll. Playing kind of a new fast style… Just his ability to make different kinds of reads and plays and getting shots off.”

Even Blake Griffin weighed in on the sudden hierarchy shift, noting that “Kon has been from start to finish, spectacular,” leaving no doubt that Flagg is now playing catch-up in a race he was supposed to dominate.

For Flagg, failing to secure the Rookie of the Year title would be more than just a missed trophy. It would represent a major setback for a player who was touted as a generational superstar during his Duke days.

According to data from Kalshi, Knueppel’s odds to win the award have reached an all-time high of 70%, while Flagg’s odds have plummeted to 28%. This marks the first time since the season began that the Mavericks rookie is not the odds-on favorite, a monumental shift in perception of his debut campaign.

Why Cooper Flagg’s ROTY Odds Have Flipped

This career-altering shift began when Kon Knueppel’s efficiency outshone Cooper Flagg’s raw production. While the latter maintains a slight lead in major statistical categories, the consistency and winning impact of his Hornets counterpart have swayed both analysts and legends alike.

Flagg is currently averaging 20.2 points per game, narrowly edging out Knueppel’s 19.3 points. However, analysts point to Knueppel’s shooting splits as the primary reason legends like Nash are impressed at his efficiency.

In the head-to-head comparison, Flagg leads in rebounds (6.6 to 5.3), assists (4.3 to 3.4), and defensive metrics, including 1.1 steals and 0.9 blocks per game.

But stats aren’t a deciding factor in Rookie of the Year as much as impact on the team. Despite Flagg’s superior counts, the Kalshi metrics reflect a loss of confidence among fans, with 2% of voters even suggesting a “Tie/Co-Winner” scenario.

​According to Kalshi data, Knueppel leads the rookie list with 6.9 win shares this season. His own Hornets teammate Ryan Kalkbrenner comes in second with 4.6. Flagg, who has 2.8 win shares this season, ranks fifth on that list, despite his all-around brilliance on both ends.

Flagg’s offensive rating of 109.1 is also lower than Knueppel’s 117.9. While the Mavericks’ rookie’s defensive rating is 114.1, Knueppel’s is again even better at 112.8.

Adding to the season’s complexity, Flagg’s performance has been viewed through a different lens than Knueppel’s and the 76ers’ VJ Edgecombe’s, for carrying his team against the odds. The Mavericks’ star has meanwhile grappled with a revolving door of veterans in and out of the lineup due to injuries and trades, while also filling the point guard role and playing forward.

Flagg has also played fewer games than Knueppel, but that isn’t a major deal-breaker because LaMelo Ball has previously won the Rookie of the Year award over Anthony Edwards despite playing just 51 games.

Flagg’s struggles have created an opening that Knueppel has exploited, and as the season winds down, Flagg faces the daunting task of reversing a narrative already dismissed by the veterans.