Only 4.4% of teams in NBA history have ever climbed out of a 3-1 playoff hole. After four games against the Minnesota Timberwolves, Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets now find themselves staring directly at those odds.

No matter how you frame it, Denver is facing a brutal uphill climb. But that climb gets slightly easier when you factor in the latest developments. Donte DiVincenzo suffered a torn Achilles early in Game 4 and is out for the postseason, while Anthony Edwards is expected to miss the remainder of the series with a knee injury. That suddenly gives Denver a lifeline it did not have 48 hours ago.

Given that lifeline, do the Nuggets actually have a path back into this series?

Why The Nuggets Have A Chance

One of those absences is not just any starter. Edwards is the Timberwolves’ best player and one of the most complete two-way stars in the league. Taking him off the floor changes everything. Minnesota without Edwards is like a championship offense missing its primary engine. The structure is still there, but the pressure it creates on defenses drops significantly.

Minnesota’s biggest advantage in this matchup is its ability to consistently pressure the rim. Edwards is the head of that attack. His blend of speed and power forces defenses to collapse, which then opens up clean looks for shooters. The Timberwolves ranked sixth in three-point percentage during the regular season, so every drive from Edwards creates a chain reaction. Without him, that entire dynamic takes a hit.

This postseason, Minnesota ranks first in points in the paint per game at 57.0, per NBA.com. Meanwhile, Denver ranks third-to-last at 39.5. Without Edwards driving that pressure, that gap should shrink.

Ayo Dosunmu has stepped up in a major way and will help soften that blow. He has scored 68 points over his last two games on elite efficiency. But expecting that level of production to continue is unrealistic. This is far above his career norms and not something Denver can reasonably expect to deal with over multiple games.

Dosunmu simply does not replicate what Edwards brings. He is not a high-volume pull-up shooter or a primary creator. That makes him easier to scheme against. Denver can pack the paint, go under screens, and force him to beat them as a jump shooter rather than as a downhill attacker.

With DiVincenzo and Edwards out, Minnesota will have to lean more on Mike Conley Jr. and Kyle Anderson. Both are experienced, but at this stage, they are players opposing teams can target. Conley can be attacked defensively, while Anderson’s lack of foot speed can be exposed in space.

Denver is also shooting just 28.5% from three in the series. Some of that is Minnesota’s defense, but some of it is flat-out bad luck. During the regular season, the Nuggets led the league at 39.6%. If that number trends back toward normal, their chances improve significantly.

Why The Nuggets Are Still In Trouble

Even after losing both DiVincenzo and Edwards, Minnesota still outscored Denver 62-42 in the second half of Game 4. That tells you everything about what still makes this team dangerous. Jaden McDaniels and Rudy Gobert remain one of the best defensive duos in the league.

That perimeter and interior combination has disrupted one of the best offensive duos in the league. Jokic is just 18-for-52 when defended by Gobert, while Jamal Murray is 12-for-35 against McDaniels. As a result, the Nuggets’ number-one-ranked regular season offense has dropped to 11th in the postseason.

Denver has its own issues. Peyton Watson has missed the entire series, and Aaron Gordon is clearly not at full strength after missing Game 3 and playing limited minutes in Game 4. The team has already ruled Watson out for Game 5 and lists Gordon as questionable.

This means that Jokic and Murray, who already aren’t great defenders, have to work even harder on that end of the floor. And given how much adversity they have had to face on offense, this is taking an extreme toll on their bodies. We got a glimpse of that physical strain in the fourth quarter of Game 4 when Jokic (an excellent defensive rebounder) surrendered three backbreaking offensive rebounds to Gobert.

If Gordon isn’t his usual self in Game 5 (highly likely given how beat up he looked on Saturday), then the Nuggets have no one who can really match up with Julius Randle. Randle only shot 5-f0r-12 (41.7%) in the second half, but he missed some chippies that diluted that number, so that doesn’t explain the difficulty they will have keeping him contained.

The Bottom Line

Currently, FanDuel gives the Nuggets +134 odds to win the series, which implies a 42.7% chance. That feels high given what we have seen so far. Through four games, Jokic and Murray have not solved the Gobert and McDaniels defensive puzzle.

Yes, Conley and Anderson will be out there at times, making Minnesota’s fortress a little more penetrable. However, the Timberwolves are still so much more athletic than the Nuggets, allowing them to fill any cracks those two graybeards create. In this clip, Murray is able to score on Conley after seeking out the mismatch, but look how difficult it is for him, thanks to the Timberwolves’ swarming defense.

On offense, between Randle, McDaniels, Dosunmu, and Hyland, the Timberwolves should be able to find enough scoring to survive on that end of the floor.

And remember, this isn’t a brand new series. Life without Edwards isn’t sustainable long-term, but one win in three games is more than doable.

The Nuggets have climbed out of a 3-1 hole before, most notably against the Los Angeles Clippers in 2020. But this situation feels different. Minnesota’s defense is still intact, and even without Edwards, they may have enough to close the door before Denver can find its footing.