Luka Doncic is leading the NBA in scoring early in the 2026-27 season, but that production has not put him at the top of the latest MVP prediction-market rankings. Victor Wembanyama currently holds the lead in the snapshot shared by Fullcourtpass, leaving Doncic behind despite his impressive start with the Los Angeles Lakers.
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The difference has prompted questions about how the two players are being evaluated. Doncic’s offensive numbers have made him one of the league’s most productive players, while Wembanyama’s impact on both ends of the floor has strengthened his MVP case.
According to Kalshi’s prediction market, shared by Fullcourtpass on X, Victor Wembanyama remains the MVP favorite at 32%, with Doncic second at 26%. The gap has narrowed quickly. Doncic was at just 15% in mid-October. But for many fans, the fact that he’s still chasing anyone is the problem.
| Rank | Player | MVP Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Victor Wembanyama | 32% |
| 2 | Luka Doncic | 26% |
| 3 | Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | 13% |
| 4 | Jayson Tatum | 12% |
| 5 | Nikola Jokic | 6% |
| 6 | Giannis Antetokounmpo | 4% |
| 7 | Tyrese Maxey | 4% |
| 8 | Cooper Flagg | 3% |
Doncic Supporters Question Wembanyama’s MVP Lead
Doncic’s supporters were quick to reply. One fan, David, offered his own top three: “It should be: Luka, Giannis, Tatum. Idk how Wemby has this level of PR lol.”
Others felt the same way about the attention Wembanyama gets. “Here we go, league shoving Wemby down our throats again,” FlukaTime wrote.
Another went straight at the idea that Doncic is still catching up. “Closing the gap? Luka has been better than Wemby since the first game lmao,” kingCurry wrote.
The argument comes with a strong statistical point. Doncic is averaging a league-leading 37.7 points, along with 8.2 rebounds and 7.3 assists, and the Lakers are off to a 5-2 start. On Sunday, he put up 45 points, 15 rebounds, and five steals against Toronto.
The criticism also turned toward Wembanyama’s shooting efficiency. One commenter, Well…, wrote, “A big man is shooting under 50% 😂okay bro”
He is shooting 48.5% from the field this season, but that only tells part of the story. He’s averaging 28.0 points, 10.7 rebounds, and 4.2 blocks, and he scored 43 points against Minnesota on Saturday. The Spurs are 4-2.
Wembanyama’s MVP case is built on both ends of the floor. He’s the reigning Defensive Player of the Year and has led the league in blocks per game in each of his first three seasons. Last season, he finished third in MVP voting and helped lead the Spurs to the NBA Finals. Before this season, 77% of NBA general managers picked him to win MVP.
His two-way impact is the reason why he is still at the top. This was also seen last season, when Doncic won the scoring title at 33.5 points per game, but ended up finishing fourth in MVP voting.
Another user questioned the gap between the market’s ranking and their assessment of the league’s best players. “The best player in the league is the 2nd favorite while the 7th best player is still the favorite. Seems fair,” Sp Lev wrote.
The NBA season is still young and both players are off to a strong start. The market has started moving in Doncic’s direction, and if he keeps scoring like he is and the Lakers also build on their strong start, he might just overtake Wembanyama.