There is a lot of confusion around the NBA regarding Giannis Antetokounmpo’s next landing spot. As you know, the rumor mills are working overtime now, and everything out there is barely believable. However, reports say the New York Knicks, Golden State Warriors, Miami Heat, and the Minnesota Timberwolves are leading the race.

How can anyone rule out the Wolves’ President of Basketball Operations, Tim Connelly? You’ll find him in the crowd every time a trade happens in the league. So, of course, Connelly is looking into the market, and he might have another former Bucks star, Jrue Holiday, in sight. Jon Krawczynski and Eric Nehm of The Athletic have a trade proposal, given that the Milwaukee Bucks focus on flexibility and future capital.

The proposal sends the Timberwolves stars Julius Randle and Naz Reid to the Bucks. In addition, they gain Portland’s 2030 first-round pick, swap rights with Minnesota in 2028 and 2032, and full control of their 2029 and 2030 selections. Therefore, Milwaukee reloads while securing long-term leverage.

Meanwhile, Minnesota swings for dominance. The Timberwolves acquire Giannis Antetokounmpo and Jrue Holiday, immediately elevating title ambitions. At the same time, Portland steps in as a facilitator, adding Jaden McDaniels and Mike Conley for balance.

Now, let’s understand this financially. Realistically speaking, the proposal collapses under current league rules, mainly because Minnesota cannot balance money at the February 5, 2026, deadline. The Timberwolves would ship out Jaden McDaniels at $24.39M and Mike Conley at $10.77M, a combined $35.16M.

In return, they would absorb Giannis Antetokounmpo at roughly $54M and Jrue Holiday at $32.4M, totaling about $86.4M. As a result, the incoming figure towers over the outgoing number by roughly $51.24M, creating an immediate red flag.

Therefore, the Timberwolves run into a hard wall with the collective bargaining agreement. The Wolves project a $202.6M cap hit, which already places them above the $195.9M first apron while still below the $207.8M second apron.

Under these conditions, a team cannot receive more than it sends. Moreover, the standard 125% plus $250K matching rule fails badly, as the return salary hits 146% of outgoing money. That breach alone kills the structure. Meanwhile, the other sides face fewer hurdles.

Milwaukee would take in about $84.4M through Julius Randle at $30.9M and Naz Reid at $21.6M, close enough to offset Giannis Antetokounmpo and Jrue Holiday while sitting roughly $19.6M below the apron. The Portland Trail Blazers absorbing Conley and McDaniels at about $35M also works, given likely space beneath apron thresholds.

Now, why did this trade proposal come into existence in the first place?

Giannis Antetokounmpo and Jru Holiday in Minnesota

The roots of this concept trace back to the 2023 Damian Lillard deal. At that time, Milwaukee handed Portland authority over its first round selections spanning 2028, 2029, and 2030. Under this scenario, Portland reverses part of that control. The Blazers would return Milwaukee’s 2029 first-rounder, cancel the 2030 exchange clause, and then forward their own 2030 first-round pick to the Bucks. In return, Portland secures Jaden McDaniels and also flips veteran point guards with Minnesota.

Meanwhile, Minnesota operates with limited draft flexibility. The Timberwolves lack movable first-round picks outright. However, they can still offer Milwaukee selection exchange rights in 2028 and 2032. While those future options carry modest appeal, they still enhance the overall return. Therefore, the Bucks gain additional optionality without demanding immediate draft capital from Minnesota.

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And beyond draft mechanics, the Milwaukee Bucks improve on the floor. Julius Randle arrives, producing 22.2 points, 7.0 rebounds, and 5.4 assists in his 12th NBA campaign. Alongside him, Naz Reid brings steady bench impact after three straight reliable seasons. Both players helped push Minnesota to the Western Conference finals in each of the past two years.

Chaos rules the Giannis market, but clarity cuts through the noise. This idea explains why the Minnesota Timberwolves listen, why the Milwaukee Bucks prioritize flexibility, and why the Portland Trail Blazers control the levers. However, league rules slam the brakes for now. Therefore, the framework lives as a thought experiment.