Some dreams don’t die loud… they just limp away quietly in a walking boot. Jayson Tatum may be out in public, walking, smiling, and even ditching the boot from time to time, but according to NBA insiders, Celtics fans clinging to the hope of a Tatum return this upcoming season might want to reframe their expectations. Like, thoroughly. The harsh truth?

Experts peg his return chances at a measly 5%. Five, not fifty, not even fifteen. Just five. And that’s not pessimism here. That’s practicality. Celtics insider Chris Forsberg put it bluntly: “I would say there is a 5% chance he is back on an NBA court before the end of the season.” That’s not nothing, but it’s definitely not something. He even joked that he’ll devote just “2% of his brain power” to tracking the comeback saga. So why are experts like Forsberg and Justin Termine so adamant that we shouldn’t get our hopes up? Because even in a fantasy where Tatum comes back and somehow looks like the same All-NBA player he’s always been, what’s the point?

Termine explained it in brutal, almost surgical, fashion. If the Celtics still had the 2024 roster with Porzingis, Holiday, and Al Horford, maybe there would be a reason to rush Tatum back. But they don’t. They have a thinner, less experienced core and arguably the worst center rotation in the league. A fully healthy Tatum rejoining a lineup of Jaylen Brown, Derrick White, Anfernee Simons, Sam Hauser, and a platoon of Neemias Queta, Luka Garza, and Xavier Tillman? “That team’s not winning anything, Eddie, and they’re not competing for a title, even if Tatum comes back at 100%,” Termine said. 

So even if the miracle happened, that being, Jayson Tatum healed faster than ever, re-entered the lineup mid-season, and looked like his All-Star self, Boston wouldn’t be sniffing another banner run. In that context, risking his long-term health for a short-term mirage would be wildly irresponsible. And well, let’s not forget the injury in question here.

A torn Achilles. This isn’t a sprained ankle or a sore knee. It’s a career-shifting injury. For a player like Tatum, whose offensive versatility and defensive reliability rely heavily on lateral agility and burst, there’s no rushing that recovery. Tatum is entering the second year of his supermax extension, a five-year, $315 million contract that ties him to Boston through 2030.

No play is the smart play for Tatum

That’s generational money for a generational talent. Which makes the idea of rushing him back in a lost season seem even more absurd. If you’re the Boston Celtics, you’re protecting the face of your franchise, not gambling on a 5% shot at relevance. But the bittersweet part?

This could quietly be the best thing to ever happen to Jaylen Brown. With Tatum sidelined, Brown finally gets his year to be the guy. No more shadowing the franchise player. It’s now Jaylen’s team to carry, fail, or thrive with. He is currently on a $303.7 million extension himself. And this season is a test of whether he can be the alpha on a playoff team, a test Boston never needed more. Plus, this gives Boston’s front office room to experiment.

Guys like Anfernee Simons and Payton Pritchard will have more usage. The team can evaluate role players under actual pressure and recalibrate the roster for when Tatum is truly ready to return. There’s also a sneaky long-term benefit to a down year: a potential high lottery pick to reload or flip. So what does this all mean for Tatum himself? Expect to see him courtside, mentoring, smiling, maybe warming up in shootarounds late in the year, or maybe even helping out Lebron, for that matter.

But not suiting up or diving for loose balls. The Celtics know what he means to the franchise. One more wrong step could change his entire career, and honestly, no one wants that. Because this isn’t really about waving a white flag on 2025. It’s about flying a green one in 2026, 2027, and beyond. Sometimes, the smartest play is the one you don’t make. And for Jayson Tatum? That means watching from the sidelines, boot or not, while Boston builds something worth coming back to.