Let’s pretend to be surprised for a moment. Luka Doncic just dropped 43 points to guide the Lakers to their 13 win in the last 15 games. In a tightly contested and physical matchup, Doncic was an outlier. His scoring efficiency kept the Purple and Gold in the contest. This has been the trend since the All-Star break, yet the latest MVP rankings dropped him to fourth.

Austin Reaves was among the first to express his surprise. “He continues to drop in the MVP race, which is insane to me. I guess it don’t really matter, maybe he’s gotta score 60, I don’t know,” That sentiment reflects a growing frustration around the league. Even Doncic feels he has run out of ways to strengthen his case.

“Yeah, hopefully, but the better I play, the more I go down in ratings, so I don’t know what more I can do,” the Slovenian said about possibly winning the elusive trophy for the first time in his career.

This isn’t to say Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Victor Wembanyama, and Nikola Jokic aren’t having tremendous seasons. Voters can’t dismiss their performances either. But Luka Doncic is putting up video-game-like numbers. He’s averaging 38.7 points in his last 15 games, shooting nearly 40% from beyond the arc.

The common complaint around him is his defense. However, the Lakers are outscoring opponents by 8.4 points with Doncic on the floor. Clearly, his defense isn’t as lazy as advertised. He’s among the players with the most charges drawn and doing well when targeted in isolation possessions. So the question shifts: what more does he need to do for voters to acknowledge him?

He’s won back-to-back Player of the Week honors in March, yet his reward was a drop in the MVP rankings. That disconnect is difficult to justify.

Doncic has faced a recurring narrative around voter fatigue and team seeding in MVP discussions, even without having won the award yet. It’s a fair point of frustration for his fans, especially given his absurd individual production over multiple seasons.

In 2023-24, Luka posted monster numbers with the Mavericks: 33.9 PPG, 9.2 RPG, 9.8 APG on solid efficiency, leading Dallas to the NBA Finals. He finished 3rd in MVP voting behind Nikola Jokic (who won his 3rd MVP) and SGA.

Jokic’s Nuggets were the higher seed (and defending champions with better overall team success), which played into the voting. Critics often highlighted that while Luka’s raw stats were elite (or even better in volume scoring/playmaking), Jokic’s efficiency, defensive impact (in context), and team record gave him the edge.

This wasn’t the first time seeding mattered – voters have long weighed “value to team success” heavily, sometimes over pure stat lines.

Some voters and analysts still bring up defensive questions with Luka (he’s never been a lockdown guy) or note that his style “plays half the court” on offense.

Whether it’s true penalization or just voters prioritizing different criteria is debatable – NBA awards have always had subjectivity. Luka’s peak production is undeniable, and if the Lakers finish strong, his case strengthens. But history shows that seeding and “value” narratives can override raw dominance.

Luka Doncic finds himself at risk of missing the 65-game criteria

Luka Doncic doesn’t think there’s anything more he can do to embellish his MVP case. However, it may happen that he misses out on the trophy entirely. The 65-game rule has created quite the controversy, especially after Cade Cunningham’s injury.

It doesn’t create an exception for players missing time due to genuine injuries. But that’s not the case with Doncic.

He’s going to be suspended for the Lakers’ next game after picking up his 16 technical against the Brooklyn Nets. It takes his tally of missed games to 13. In short, Doncic can only afford to miss four more games. Even a minor injury could see the six-time All-Star be ineligible for the award.

Perhaps, the Lakers may get the call rescinded again. Luka Doncic didn’t appear to be highly confrontational in his sequence with Brooklyn’s Zaire Williams. Lakers head coach JJ Redick has already confirmed they will be appealing the decision.

They’ll hope good luck can strike them twice. The league previously rescinded the technical foul Luka Doncic received against the Orlando Magic. However, this time around it could be difficult since officials overlooked the play before assessing the decision.

That being said, it already appears as if the narratives are being stacked against Luka Doncic. He’s yet to drop under 30 points in his last 12 games. That’s the highest such streak in his career.

Moreover, the Lakers are subsequently winning games on the back of his astounding performances. And just as a bonus, he’s the leading scorer in the league, while being the top rebounder among guards and ranks fourth in assists. If that’s not enough to at least stay in contention, then it’s hard to tell what is.

What more does Luka Doncic need to do to win MVP?