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Serbia entered EuroBasket 2025 with the weight of expectation and a three-time NBA MVP at its core. Nikola Jokic remains the fulcrum around which everything spins. But even the brightest star can dim under too much strain. Early signs from the tournament suggest that strain may be mounting.

There’s a promise of dominance in Serbia’s structure, a roster built to space the floor, cut hard, and let Jokic orchestrate. Yet one key piece is missing: Bogdan Bogdanovic, the steady hand and veteran scorer who often tips the balance in knockout stages. Bogdanovic suffered an injury late in the first half of Serbia’s game against Portugal. After driving to the basket, he grabbed the back of his thigh and left the court, not returning for the remainder of the match. Medical scans have confirmed a hamstring injury. Additional evaluation by both Serbian and LA Clippers medical staff is currently underway, as required by FIBA-NBA insurance protocols.

Without him, the guard line looks thinner, and the questions louder. And as the tournament unfolds, a familiar cautionary tale is playing out with Luka Doncic’s Slovenia, one that Serbia would rather not mirror.

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Observers aren’t mincing words. “If there is a game that these guards don’t step up, Jokic will have to do a lot by himself… and without Bogdanovic, I see a really, really tough challenge for Serbia to actually win this whole thing,” said BasketNews’ Augustas Suliauskas. Gytis Blazevicius added: “Stefan Jovic had seven assists… Marco Guduric also had five assists in addition to his 11 points. They are contributing their playmaking, it’s just that they’re not really scoring as Bogey would.”

The lack of offensive depth has become more evident with Vasilije Micic’s struggles. The veteran, among the team’s highest-paid players in Bogdanovic’s absence, has now registered zero points in consecutive key games. His four-point showing against Estonia looks like an outlier rather than a turning point. Without his ability to penetrate and score, Serbia’s half-court sets have leaned too heavily on Nikola Jokic‘s post game.

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Analysts point to the cumulative effect this could have. “You can’t just rely on Jokic making passes, making post-up plays. We all know perimeter players is what solves most of the problems when it gets tough,” Suliauskas warned. And when Guduric and Jovic are relied upon to facilitate and finish, the margins grow razor-thin. It’s not just about missing Bogdanovic, but whether anyone else can carry the scoring load when the defense collapses on Jokic.

Slovenia’s Luka Doncic Shows the Danger of Solo Flight

While Serbia grapples with missing depth, Slovenia offers an even clearer warning sign: total collapse when a superstar is left to carry too much. Doncic opened the tournament with 34 points, 9 assists, and 5 steals against Poland. Yet, the box score told a harsher truth: Slovenia fell 105–95, undone by a supporting cast that couldn’t shoulder the load.

Only two teammates hit double figures, leaving their offense one-dimensional and their defense gasping for stops late. The second outing told a similar story. Against France, a deeper and more physical team, Slovenia again leaned heavily on Doncic’s creation while struggling to generate reliable secondary scoring.

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The absence of key contributors like forward Vlatko Cancar and center Josh Nebo has left a void on both ends of the floor. Olimpia Milano, their club, refused to release them for national team duty, stating it was for their gradual return to action and to safeguard their health and competitiveness.

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This means there’s no stretch big to complement Doncic’s drives, and no rim deterrence to slow down bigger opponents. Slovenia’s offensive rhythm collapses almost instantly when teams pack the paint and force the ball out of his hands.

This is a cautionary tale for Serbia as much as it is a comparison. They may still have a broader spread of contributors than Slovenia, but there are warning signs. A few more cold nights from the backcourt, Nikola Jokic could find himself navigating the same lonely path that has defined Doncic’s EuroBasket.

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