As the NBA season approaches, considerable eyes will also be on the most recent MVP winners, who were also the two leaders in voting last year: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Nikola Jokic. Both play for teams that are built around their transcendental talents. On one hand is arguably the best modern NBA big man who has already proven his dominance over the years. On the other is a young superstar who swept the championship and all major individual awards in the league last season.

The Oklahoma City Thunder enter the season on top; they’re defending champions, and the defensive juggernaut has retained all of their main players. On the other hand, the Denver Nuggets have had a massive offseason: the Michael Porter Jr.-Cam Johnson trade, the Jonas Valanciunas trade and the Tim Hardaway Jr. signing have rejuvenated the team previously thought to be plateauing. Both teams are looking to win the Western Conference, and one analyst believes that their matchups will have major implications for the NBA Finals.

Bill Simmons, on his podcast, recently said, “The way I see it, whoever wins that OKC-Denver series is probably going to win the title, unless we have some weird injury.” His take reflects a belief that might gain more traction: this regular season series is the unofficial championship decider. Denver’s reloaded core against OKC’s explosive youth is going to make the matchup feel like a collision of eras.

Simmons didn’t make his statement callously. Denver’s supporting cast is built around Jokic as the engine and faced injury issues last season. Jamal Murray’s ability to run a lethal two-man game forces defenders to pick their poison: face the paint-dominant Jokic or guard a perimeter barrage. Aaron Gordon and Christian Braun are high-flyers who can lock down their matchups, and Cam Johnson is an elite 3-and-D wing (39% from three last season). All of this, in addition to good Jokic backup for spot minutes in Valanciunas and a bench scorer in Hardaway, and the Nuggets are finally looking like a real-deal contender, perhaps even better than the championship team from 2023.

Meanwhile, the Thunder boast one of the best defenses in modern history. They led the league in defensive rating at 107.5, and forced the most turnovers of any team at 17. The last team to do this was the legendary 2016-17 Warriors, a team with some of the greatest players in the history of the NBA. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander also led the league in scoring last year, and OKC won 68 games while facing injuries all throughout the regular season.

OKC have locked in their core for the foreseeable future and still have a young team that is going to improve in the coming time, if everything goes to plan. The two teams are intimately familiar with each other. Last year’s playoffs showcased a thrilling second-round 7-game series, pushing both teams to the edge with buzzer beaters and scoring explosions. Though the Thunder prevailed, both teams were neck-and-neck throughout, and now, with Denver replenished, their matchup could be even more intense. The outcome of their clash could ripple across her league, and with Houston facing early turbulence, the rest of the teams have to hope that their own championship paths aren’t blocked.

Why The Rest of the NBA Should Be Nervous

Bill Simmons also commented on FanDuel’s early odds. He noted that while OKC sits at a comfortable +210, Denver is at +750, behind the Cleveland Cavaliers +650. Simmons said, “I don’t understand how Denver doesn’t have the second best odds.” Of course, Shai and Jokic have propelled both their teams into the top tier of contenders, and Cleveland, who won 64 games last year are in that same tier. As Lowe noted, Cleveland is probably above Denver due to them being in the East, thus having a higher chance of making to to the Finals.

Him and Zach Lowe were also surprised that Cleveland was ahead of the Knicks, who sat at +1000, and that Minnesota, despite making the Conference Finals, was buried at +2000. Lowe even joked that he had to click the ‘show more’ button to even see the Timberwolves on the board. That’s somehow behind Houston, a team that remains unproven in the postseason and just had a season altering injury.

Even the Lakers, who sit at +1400 appeared favored over rosters with better construction, making the Western Conference race feel upside down. Lowe and Simmons dive into the market reveals how shaky the perception of real contenders is, and why many of these boards can be misleading. If Denver and OKC are truly one step ahead of the others, these odds show just how many hopeful challengers area already chasing ghosts.