Nikola Jokic is averaging 22.9ppg through 8 games. This marks a sharp departure from his usual dominance – and two NBA analysts believe they know why.
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The early-season drop-off can no longer be simply written off as rust. His scoring has fallen by more than 4ppg compared to last season. Chris Mannix and Evan Turner believe that a lingering injury may be the cause.
“Yeah, I don’t want to say that, that, I – we’ve seen an end of Jokic. It’s only been like eight games,” Turner said on the Open Floor podcast. “But I am wondering, is that knee, you know what I mean? Has that knee gotten better?”
Turner brought up the hyperextended left knee and subchondral bone bruise that Jokic suffered in late December last year, believing that it might still be lingering. He added that bone bruises are a “killer” injury that can take a long time to heal.
Turner highlighted that Jokic was balling out, averaging 29.6ppg, 12.2rpg, and 11apg over a 32-game period before the injury. Following a month-long absence, Jokic returned, but he didn’t look the same.
After the injury, his scoring numbers notably declined, with Jokic averaging just 25.8ppg across 33 games after returning.
However, even if it’s a lingering injury issue, Turner doubts whether Jokic can carry the Nuggets the way he has so far as he moves further into his 30s.
Mannix acknowledged that while it may just be a slump, Jokic’s shooting 22.9% from beyond the arc and grabbing just 7.4 defensive rebounds per game is a cause for concern.
The ‘Joker’ has averaged at least 9 defensive rebounds per game while shooting 35%+ from beyond the arc in each of his last four seasons. This year is a big drop, and Mannix believes the Nuggets should be concerned.
“This is an issue for Denver because they, they have been able to maintain their status as one of the best teams in the NBA because of Nikola Jokic’s greatness.”
Mannix acknowledged that eight games are not enough to establish a definitive decline. Furthermore, neither he nor Turner has cited medical confirmation of an ongoing injury. They’re simply speculating based on Jokic’s statistical decline and his injury history.
However, Mannix still believes Denver cannot afford to overlook the warning signs. This makes any sustained regression a major concern.
Mannix stated that with Jokic months away from being eligible for a potential 5-year, $359 million extension, the Nuggets have to consider every angle of a potential deal.
The issue isn’t the Nuggets’ commitment to paying Jokic; it’s a question of how real his decline is.
However, this doubt gives the Warriors, who Jake Fischer has reported as a potential Jokic landing spot, the chance to truly pursue him in free agency, especially if Denver decides to offer Jokic less than what he thinks he’s worth.
Turner suggested that the Nuggets’ championship window may have closed. Since winning the title in 2023, Denver lost several important contributors, including Bruce Brown and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope.
This lack of competitive edge may be one more reason that Jokic considers a Nuggets exit. The Warriors could potentially be the team benefiting from it.