With football nearly in full swing, that means that the NBA is also almost back. That means that we need to start previewing the upcoming season, and what better way to do that than to talk about each team’s biggest X-factor?

We’ve already done this exercise for each team in the Eastern Conference, so now we need to show some love to the boys out West. Remember, X-factors are usually not star players because those guys tend to be more reliable. Instead, these are players who could have a wide array of outcomes. If they hit one of their high-end outcomes, everything is all good and dandy. But if things go to s***, their season does too.

Anyway, here is one X-factor for all 15 Western Conference teams.

Dallas Mavericks

X-Factor: Kyrie Irving

Explanation: I’m already breaking my stars can’t be X-factors rule, but Kyrie Irving is a special case. Irving is no longer a spring chicken (next season will be his age-34 campaign), and he’s coming off the kind of injury (a torn ACL) that ends primes. There is also a chance that Irving doesn’t make it through the whole season in a Dallas Mavericks uniform, as the team seems to be shifting in a new direction with their new general manager/coach combination. Now that I think about it, there are a lot of ways this ends either really poorly or pretty insignificantly in the grand scheme of things. But there is also a world where Irving serves as the perfect elder statesman of this burgeoning group. As currently constructed, the Mavericks have a bevy of tantalizing frontcourt players — headlined by the likes of Cooper Flagg, Dereck Lively II, Daniel Gafford, Morez Johnson, and PJ Washington. On paper, they have a chance to be very scrappy on the defensive side of the ball. What they need is a conductor who can keep their offense afloat. Irving, even in a diminished state, can be that guy for the Mavericks, and Dallas can make their way back to the playoffs sooner than anyone ever imagined.

Denver Nuggets

X-Factor: Julian Strawther

Explanation: Part of me wanted to put Aaron Gordon here. After all, the Denver Nuggets are really freakin’ good when he’s healthy, and he wasn’t that for most of last season (playing in just 36 regular games and three playoff games). But with how good some of the other teams have gotten, I fear that even with a healthy Gordon won’t be enough to get over the hump. Last season’s early exit showed us that to compete, the Nuggets need depth, athleticism, and additional shot creation. At a glance, they seemed to have let that walk out the door with Peyton Watson, but I think an alternative is still sitting dormant in their depth chart. This is just a long-winded way of me saying that I can’t quit Julian Strawther. He’s still only 24, runs like the hardwood is made out of clouds, and possesses a certain degree of slitheriness that gives off effective Jordan Poole vibes. This is without mentioning his 6’9.25 wingspan and 38.7% conversion rate from downtown last season. Strawther has the skill and youthful vigor to reignite this Nuggets’ bench. Now, he just needs to do enough of the little things to earn head coach David Adelman’s trust.

Golden State Warriors

X-Factor: Kristaps Porzingis

Explanation: Kristaps Porzingis is such a textbook X-factor candidate. When he’s on the court and feeling like himself, good things happen for his team. Porzingis has placed in the 93rd percentile or higher in Estimated Plus-Minus in six of the last seven seasons (per Dunks & Threes). The issue is that he’s hardly ever healthy, only appearing in 60+ games once in that time frame. The Golden State Warriors especially need Porzingis to pan out if they hope to extend their window. His blend of size, length, and shooting is exactly what the doctor ordered for this bunch. Plus, it’ll help unlock some ultra-freaky frontcourt combinations featuring Draymond Green, Yaxel Lenderborg, Jimmy Butler III (when he comes back), and Porzingis.

Houston Rockets

X-Factor: Steven Adams

Explanation: Until they switch up their team construction, Steven Adams will continue to be the ultimate X-factor for the Houston Rockets. Last season, the Rockets were 8.3 points per 100 possessions better with Adams on the floor than when he was off it (90th percentile, per Cleaning the Glass). With him, the Rockets’ offense operates as a battering ram, finding success (86th percentile offensive rating with Adams on the floor) by continuously creating second chance opportunites (100th percentile). But when he’s off the court, their inability to generate efficient first-shot looks slaps them right in the face. The Rockets fell apart last season after Adams went down in January with an ankle injury. He’ll be back and healthy by the start of 2026-27. Hopefully, for the Rockets’ sake, he stays that way.

Los Angeles Clippers

X-Factor: Keaton Wagler

Explanation: Let’s pretend for a second that the Los Angeles Clippers didn’t just receive the largest punishment has ever handed out to a franchise in history, and remember that they still have a season of basketball to play. I hate to put the “X-factor” burden on a rookie (although I did it twice in the East version of this), but this fanbase needs Keaton Wagler to be good in the worst way possible. They are down five future first round picks, and their crosstown rivals finally figured out how to build around their MVP-caliber star. The Clippers need something to break their way. Wagler doesn’t need to be a star, or even emerge as one of the top three players in his class. He just needs to show that he’s a building block. That he can be a glimmer of hope in what appears to be a pretty grim future.

Los Angeles Lakers

X-Factor: Sandro Mamukelashvili

Explanation: As we alluded to in the last section, the Los Angeles Lakers are finally ready to get rocking and rolling. With LeBron James, the Lakers were also a tough out, but they lacked the kind of shooting, defense, and athleticism you need to properly maximize the gifts that Luka Doncic wields. They now have that with their offseason additions of Walker Kessler (defense), Collin Sexton (shooting), Cameron Carr (athleticism), and Quentin Grimes (all of the above). All they need is a true power forward who can hit open threes, put the ball on the floor from time to time, and be a secondary enforcer in the paint. This brings me to their last marquee offseason signing: Sandro Mamukelashvili. Listen, he isn’t as perfect in this role (he’s not nearly as versatile of a defender) as Washington was to Doncic when they shared their time together in Dallas, but he’s probably the best bet the Lakers have at filling this role. Last season, he hit 38.9% of his threes, averaged as many drives per 36 minutes as Donte DiVincenzo, and was in the 68th percentile in block rate. With the pieces they currently have, the Lakers’ best lineup combination is (probably) Austin Reaves, Doncic, Grimes, Kessler, and Mamukelashvili. But to do that, Mamukelashvili needs to be able to play that four spot.

Memphis Grizzlies

X-Factor: Ty Jerome

Explanation: Ty Jerome spent the first five seasons of his NBA career looking like he was on his way to learning Mandarin. That all changed after a breakout 2024-25 campaign that saw Jerome finish in the 95th percentile in EPM. After signing a multi-year deal with the Memphis Grizzlies, Jerome was relegated to just ten games in 2025-26. However, he did still manage to finish seventh in the entire association in EPM. Those are small samples, though, and he never even eclipsed the 23 MPG mark. This version of the Grizzlies is a lot like the Mavericks in that they have a ton of promising players in the frontcourt, but have some serious question marks in the backcourt. Jerome projects to be the team’s opening night starting point guard, and if he can maintain his impressive impact in a larger role, the Grizzlies’ rebuild could be short and sweet.

Minnesota Timberwolves

X-Factor: Jonathan Kuminga

Explanation: In the past, the Minnesota Timberwolves were stacked in the frontcourt at the cost of not having strong guard play to ease the burden off of Anthony Edwards. This offseason, the Timberwolves looked in the mirror and addressed this concern by trading for LaMelo Ball and signing Ayo Dosunmu to a lengthy extension. That created a new hole — ironically, at forward. To get Ball, the Timberwolves had to part ways with Julius Randle and Naz Reid — turning one of their great strengths into a weakness. This was potentially rectified with the signing of Jonathan Kuminga. I say the word “potentially” because Kuminga could be just what the doctor ordered for Minnesota. His physical profile could allow him to be a two-way menace for the Timberwolves alongside the other pieces they’ve put together. The issue is that Kuminga has never really been that guy for any team — often resorting to putting up empty calories in unproductive minutes. Have two seasons of not getting paid what he’d hoped for changed Kuminga’s perspective? The answer to that question could ultimately change his career, and dictate the Timberwolves 2026-27 season.

New Orleans Pelicans

X-Factor: Derik Queen

Explanation: The front office tandem of Joe Dumars and Troy Weaver didn’t wait long to put their stamp on this team. In the 2025 NBA Draft, the New Orleans Pelicans traded up to take Derik Queen with the 13th overall pick — a move many people laughed at when it was made. Now, we know exactly what players changed hands in this transaction. To get Queen, the Pelicans forfeited the opportunity to select Asa Newell and Kingston Flemings. Queen has already proven to be a better prospect than Newell, but now he also has to show he’s good enough to justify missing out on the chance to get Flemings (or another player taken in that range). The Pelicans haven’t had much to cheer about over the last few years, and based on their current win projection (FanDuel has them as the third-worst odds of winning the West), team success in 2026-27 likely won’t change that trend. The Queen bet paying off would finally give their fanbase a reason for optimism.

Oklahoma City Thunder

X-Factor: Jalen Williams

Explanation: Some of you may not even realize I’m violating my rule about star players not being X-factors because Jalen Williams hardly played last season (missing 49 regular season games and ten in the playoffs), and the Oklahoma City Thunder didn’t miss a beat without him in the regular season. However, when last healthy, Williams was playing at an All-NBA level (16th in EPM) and was the second-best player on the team that won it all. The Western Conference Finals served as a strong reminder that this team needs Williams to win at the highest levels. Stars will be even more important to the Thunder this year, as the team was forced to trade away Aaron Wiggins, Isaiah Joe, and Luguentz Dort in order to maintain their current core. Williams has to stay healthy and get back to his 2024-25 self for the Thunder to win their second title in three years.

Phoenix Suns

X-Factor: Khaman Maluach

Explanation: The 2026-27 Phoenix Suns are giving me some major 2022-23 Chicago Bulls vibes. After surprising the basketball world in 2021-22, the Bulls banked too much on continuity and took a step backward the following season. The Suns were a darling last season. New coach, new style, new commitment to winning every single possession. They were one of the best watches in the whole league. However, the NBA is constantly improving, with teams desperately trying to maximize their perceived windows. A handful of teams in the Western Conference got better this offseason, and I’m not so sure the Suns were one of them (the Miles Bridges trade doesn’t really move me). The Suns seem poised to let a lot of fans down. Sounds grim, but there is a way they don’t follow in the Bulls’ footsteps: Khaman Maluach. The Suns used the tenth overall pick in the 2025 NBA Draft to acquire Maluach. I don’t blame you if you wondered why after an unspectacular rookie season. However, Maluach was one of the huge risers from the 2025 Vegas Summer League — being named to the All-Summer League Second Team. This isn’t a guarantee of future stardom, but it could be a sign of things to come for Maluach. And a big leap from him could keep the Suns from flopping in 2027.

Portland Trail Blazers

X-Factor: Ja Morant

Explanation: If the vibes are “bad” with the Clippers, they are, at the very least, weird when it comes to the Portland Trail Blazers. Their new owner, Tom Dundon, seems dead set on watching the world burn. Okay, maybe it’s not that serious, but he definitely isn’t ingratiating himself with the fanbase. And that was before he traded for Ja Morant, whose Q-rating is also at an all-time low. I’m skeptical of how the Blazers can sort out their crowded guard room (which also includes Jrue Holiday, Damian Lillard, and Scoot Henderson) while also maximizing their best player, Deni Avdija. Everything we’ve learned about the sport over the last few years tells me that this is probably a recipe for disaster. But what if it isn’t? What if the change of scenery is exactly what Morant needed? What if he can finally stay healthy and out of the tabloids? Remember, there was once a time, not too long ago, when Morant was one of the brightest stars on the planet. If he can recapture some version of that, maybe the penny-pinching Dundon just found a worthy sidekick to Avdija at a bargain price.

Sacramento Kings

X-Factor: Keegan Murray or Nique Clifford

Explanation: The Sacramento Kings lead the association in needing something to their way. The obvious answer would be Darius Acuff, but this year will certainly be filled with empty production as he’s a rookie guard on a bad team, which is almost always a recipe for disaster. So, we’re going to go a different route with this. Since things are so grim with the Kings, we’ll be nice and give them two options. Keegan Murray signed a hefty extension last year, but he was so banged up that we didn’t get to see him live up to it (appearing in just 23 games). It seems like everyone has been waiting for him to break out after two strong seasons to start his career. If it happens this year, that gives the Kings a strong building block, or, at the very least, a trade chip to squeeze future assets from. Speaking of taking a leap, a sizable jump in production in Year Two from Nique Clifford would be a welcome revelation. The team traded up in 2025 to get him, so seeing that the front office has at least something of an eye for talent would create some faith from the fans. Bottom line: the Kings just need something that shows a path toward ending this rebuild.

San Antonio Spurs

X-Factor: Dylan Harper

Explanation: The San Antonio Spurs came about as close as you can get to winning a championship in 2025 without actually winning one, falling to the New York Knicks in the NBA Finals. The biggest reason for their demise was their inability to create in late-game half-court situations. For as generational as Victor Wembanyama is, he still needs a partner-in-crime to set him up. The Spurs have three potential candidates, but after last postseason, it seems clear that Dylan Harper is the best of the bunch. Despite being a rookie, he was both productive (14.1 PPG) and efficient (61.1% true shooting). But even he had moments that showed his age and made his coaches hesitant to leave him out there in crunch-time situations. Harper has some growing to do. Hopefully, he accomplished part of that maturation this offseason.

Utah Jazz

X-Factor: Ace Bailey

Explanation: I am so excited to watch the Utah Jazz play basketball this year. After four years of intentional losing, it looks like they are happy with the talent they’ve accumulated and are ready to start being respectable again. They have a tandem of dynamic forwards (Jaren Jackson Jr. and Lauri Markkanen), good depth behind them (Jaxson Hayes, Kyle Filipowski, and Jusuf Nurkic), a stud point guard (Keyonte George), and a quality understudy behind him (Isaiah Collier). All they are really lacking is proven wing play. They drafted Darryn Peterson with the second overall pick, but as a rookie, he’s the exact opposite of proven. They just acquired Josh Green in a trade with the Timberwolves. He’s been around the block, but he’s also…been around the block. This leaves them with Ace Bailey. After a promising rookie campaign, the Jazz will need Bailey to go from a fun, young prospect to a seasoned three-and-D role player (with some occasional off-the-dribble possessions) for this roster to really compete. Is a sophomore surge in Bailey’s future?