It’s almost that time! As of writing this, we’re a little bit over a month away from the start of the 2026-27 NBA season (Tuesday, October 20). One that projects to be as action-packed as they come.

In preparation for this joyous occasion, we need to do some forecasting. Which players will ultimately help make or break their team’s season? Yes, basketball is the team sport where stars can make the greatest impact. But part of what makes them stars is their consistency. You can bank on them to perform.

Where seasons are won and lost comes from those ancillary players. The guys who grease the wheels and make sure all the parts are able to run smoothly. These are what are known in many circles as “x-factors.” And right now, we’re going to give you the biggest x-factor from all 15 Eastern Conference teams.

Atlanta Hawks

X-Factor: Kingston Flemings

Explanation: Ben Pfeifer is going to be upset with me for putting such a heavy burden on a youngster in their rookie season, especially his precious Kingston Flemings, but it has to be done. The Atlanta Hawks have everything — shooting, size, athleticism, physicality — except the skill that arguably matters most: shot creation. Yes, they re-signed CJ McCollum, but he’s entering his age-35 season and has never really been able to don the mantle of the number one guy successfully; hence why the Hawks used the eighth pick in the 2026 NBA Draft to add Flemings — arguably one of the best on-ball players in his class. The Hawks aren’t naive. They know Flemings will have some growing pains out of the gate, and their current core (Jalen Johnson, Dyson Daniels, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, and Onyeka Okongwu) is young enough to give him time to grow into his own. But with how good the East got this offseason, the Hawks are going to need Flemings to be ahead of schedule if they plan on making the playoffs for the second time in as many years.

Boston Celtics

X-Factor: Payton Pritchard

Explanation: Is Payton Pritchard the white version of Jalen Brunson? Fans of the Boston Celtics have been asking themselves some version of that question for years. He’s undersized, stoic, crafty, immensely skilled, and borderline unstoppable in isolation. However, for years he’s been forced to take a backseat to the Celtics’ more accomplished scorers. Last season, he got a little taste of what being a featured option would be like, which he responded to by averaging a career-high 17 PPG and 5.2 APG on 58.4% true shooting. But now is the real test. Jaylen Brown isn’t hurt. He’s gone for good. And his replacement, Paul George, has seen better days. If the Celtics are going to maintain relevance at the top of the conference, Pritchard will almost surely need to take another leap toward stardom. Is he ready for this kind of responsibility? Or was there a reason he was forced to be a bench sparkplug all this time?

Brooklyn Nets

X-Factor: Mikel Brown Jr.

Explanation: This is the last rookie on our list, I swear. The Brooklyn Nets are different than most of the teams we’re talking about here because their goal probably isn’t to compete for a championship, or even make the playoffs, for that matter. Their objective is to find a sense of direction. Yes, they have tons of young players who, if things break right for them, could be key pieces on a winning team someday. But it doesn’t seem like they really have anyone who could be a headliner on their next great team. Enter, Mikel Brown Jr. Brown was taken two spots before Fleming and comes with a lot of the same strengths and weaknesses. Unlike Fleming, Brown won’t be asked to stir the drink for a team with playoff aspirations. Rather, a successful x-factor campaign for the Louisville product involves flashing enough potential to justify the Nets selecting him sixth overall. (Sidebar: If the Nets are more competitive than we think, my biggest x-factor for them switches to Keon Ellis. Throughout his career, Ellis has been an analytics darling who struggles to maintain consistent playing time. The Nets seem like they want to expand his role, and I’m really curious to see what that will look like.)

Charlotte Hornets

X-Factor: Coby White

Explanation: Last season, the Charlotte Hornets starting five (LaMelo Ball, Kon Knueppel, Brandon Miller, Miles Bridges, and Moussa Diabate) had the second-best point differential of any lineup that played at least 300 non-garbage time minutes together. The only differences are that Naz Reid now replaces Bridges (which I feel comfortable saying is an upgrade) and Coby White is filling in for Ball. White has always been a strong offensive player when you look at his per-possession numbers. Last season, he ranked in the 94th percentile in points per 75 possessions and the 65th percentile in true shooting (per Dunks & Threes). But White has never been given the workload he projects to have next season. Is he ready for the increased responsibility? The Hornets clearly believe in him, as they re-signed him to a three-year, $74 million extension. The Hornets also don’t need him to be as good as Ball was for them last year. Like we said, Reid is better than Bridges. Plus, Knueppel, Miller, Diabate, and their other youngsters will be another year more experienced. But does White have what it takes to keep the Hornets in the upper echelon of league offenses?

Chicago Bulls

X-Factor: Nic Claxton

Explanation: With Josh Giddey, Norman Powell, Matas Buzelis, and Caleb Wilson, the Chicago Bulls have the chance to be able to get out and run in transition, which should keep their offense at least somewhat respectable. What has many people projecting them to be in the bottom of the standings is the high likelihood that they are one of the bottom-five defenses in the association. But it doesn’t have to be this way. Their new starting center, Nic Claxton, ranked in the 98th percentile in Defensive Estimated Plus-Minus in 2022-23. Unfortunately, the Nets were so bad the last three years that he didn’t have much of a chance to be an anchor on that end of the floor. This Bulls team also isn’t super talented, but they are probably more talented than any of the teams the Nets have fielded over the last couple of years. In any event, it’ll be interesting to see if Claxton (who is still only 27, by the way) really is one of the better defensive centers in the league, or if that data point from 2023 was just a blip in an otherwise unspectacular career.

Cleveland Cavaliers 

X-Factor: Peyton Watson

Explanation: Could the Cleveland Cavaliers’ x-factor be anyone else? In fact, one could argue that Peyton Watson is the genesis of this entire article. For the last four years, the Cavaliers have been searching for the do-it-all wing that can complement their star backcourt and titanic four-five combination. Watson is the biggest swing they’ve taken in this department — sacrificing future draft capital to execute a sign-and-trade with the Denver Nuggets. We’ve all heard some version of this stat line: last January (15 games), Watson averaged 21.9 PPG, 5.5 RPG, and 3.0 APG on 59.6% true shooting, while managing to keep the Nuggets afloat while Nikola Jokic was sidelined with injuries. What doesn’t get mentioned as often these days is that Watson’s offensive limitations relegated him to just 14.2 MPG during the Nuggets’ 2025 postseason run (one in which they were sorely lacking in depth and defense). Which version of Watson are the Cavaliers going to get? The answer to this question will not only decide how their season goes, but also how this era of Cavaliers basketball is remembered.

Detroit Pistons

X-Factor: Paul Reed

Explanation: A big reason for the Detroit Pistons’ regular season success last season was how solid and reliable their trio of centers were. Last season, the Pistons only had 148 minutes where one of Jalen Duren, Paul Reed, and Isaiah Stewart was not on the court (per PBP Stats). This year, the team’s biggest positional strength is in danger of turning into its biggest weakness — unless Reed can do something about it. Not only will Reed become the team’s sole backup center (with Stewart now playing for the Memphis Grizzlies), but he may be counted on to help the team deal with any dropoff that is created by the animosity that contract negotiations between the Pistons and Duren have given birth to. Reed was excellent for the Pistons last postseason, ranking eighth in EPM and first (!!) in points per 75 possessions. But that was in an incredibly small sample size (86 total minutes). Can he maintain that kind of production for an entire season?

Indiana Pacers

X-Factor: Tyrese Haliburton

Explanation: I know, we just said that star players can’t be x-factors because they are often the most reliable. But, if three years of law school taught me anything, it’s that every rule comes with an exception. This is one of those instances. Yes, Tyrese Haliburton is the Indiana Pacers’ best player when he is at full strength. However, there is no guarantee he will be at full strength. Haliburton just missed the entirety of the 2025-26 campaign as he rehabbed from the torn Achilles injury he suffered in Game 7 of the 2025 NBA Finals. Unlike Tatum, we didn’t get to see a small little snippet of what he’ll look like post-Achilles injury. We’re going into this thing completely blind. If Haliburton can look like his pre-tear self, the Pacers are poised to get back to relevance. But if he’s not, well, you saw what happened last season (to be fair, it probably won’t be 17-win bad, but I felt like I needed a dramatic effect).

Miami Heat

X-Factor: Nikola Jovic

Explanation: There’s a chance that the Miami Heat are already done with Nikola Jovic and try to use the relatively bloated contract as a salary matcher. If that ends up happening, I guess I just wasted the next hundred-something words. But I think there is definetely some incentive to give Jovic another shot. To trade for Giannis Antetokounmpo, the Heat had to give up three of their four best ball handlers (Tyler Herro, Jaime Jaquez Jr., and Kasparas Jakucionis), and their other one (Powell) left in free agency. This team sorely needs players with perimeter skills. Jovic is a good shooter (shot 39.9% from three in 2023-24), and he’s not afraid to put the ball on the floor to score (60th percentile drive rate last season, per Thinking Basketball). At 6’10, the Heat can put out some jumbo lineups with him, Antetokounmpo, and Bam Adebayo sharing the court. And if he’s on the floor with those two stalwarts, his defensive deficiencies will be less glaring. Jovic will be only 23 years old next season, so there is still some time for him to improve. The Heat had better hope this happens, or find a way to trade him for someone with some perimeter talent.

Milwaukee Bucks

X-Factor: Kel-el Ware & Kasparas Jakucionis

Explanation: For the first time since 2012-13, the Milwaukee Bucks will be starting the season without Antetokounmpo on their roster. The team decided it was time to grant the wish of their franchise icon and begin the process of building a new winner. After cleaning out the treasure chest to get Antetokounmpo as much help as possible, the Bucks’ main assets for this rebuild right now are the ones they got in return for the former MVP. Herro is who he is at this point. The same is likely true for Jaquez. It’s too early to know what Nate Ament (who the Bucks drafted with the 2026 first round pick they got from the Heat) will be. The players selected with the future picks are yet to be decided. That leaves us with Jakucionis and Kel-el Ware. It isn’t a deal-breaker on this haul if these two don’t work out, but if they do, that’d be a huge plus for the Bucks. Jakucionis and Ware are also in that interesting spot where they have some experience under their belt and are now getting a ton of leeway on a developing team to show what they can do. Now, they just need to capitalize.

New York Knicks

X-Factor: Andre Drummond

Explanation: The New York Knicks are returning basically every rotation player from the team that just won it all. Ten of their top 12 players in total minutes played will be on the roster on opening night. The two omissions are Mitchell Robinson, who played a huge role in the Knicks being one of the most physical teams in the sport, and his backup, Ariel Hukporti. To nullify these losses, they signed veteran journeyman Andre Drummond in free agency. Drummond may have been market-corrected by the analytics movement, but he’s found a way to provide spot minutes to good teams during his second act. This Knicks team is also (probably) the best team he’s ever played for, and this ecosystem will allow him to focus on being an enforcer. That’s the calculated gamble the Knicks are taking, and it better pay off, because they don’t really have a good backup plan if it doesn’t.

Orlando Magic

X-Factor: Jase Richardson

Explanation: I still maintain the belief that the Franz Wagner and Paolo Banchero needs to be split in two (with the Orlando Magic siding with Wagner). Unfortunately, that probably isn’t happening this year, especially with the team bringing in a new coach to try and solve this riddle in Sean Sweeney. And with the Magic roster remaining largely the same in a conference that projects to be far more formidable, Disney World’s team is going to need some internal improvement to avoid missing the playoffs for the first time since 2023. There are a few candidates for this — Anthony Black, Tristan da Silva, Noah Penda — but the one that I’m really intrigued by is Jase Richardson. Richardson had a remarkable freshman season at my alma mater (Michigan State), the kind that practically guarantees NBA success. However, his playing time was limited as a rookie (587 total minutes). The theoretical version of Richardson is exactly what the doctor ordered for the Magic. He can play off of Wagner and Banchero, while also creating enough offense to keep things from being sticky. A Richardson breakout could rewrite what seems to be an otherwise mediocre fate for the 26-27 Magic.

Philadelphia 76ers

X-Factor: VJ Edgecombe

Explanation: I’m going to keep it a buck with you: I am hardcore fading the Philadelphia 76ers this year. The star-stacking model is an antiquated one, and we have numerous recent examples of teams crashing and burning when they prioritize talent over roster cohesion. I’m doubtful that things will end differently for the team featuring Tyrese Maxey, Jaylen Brown, LeBron James, and Joel Embiid. That’s four guys with overlapping skills. Yes, the 76ers are set in terms of creation, rim pressure, passing, ball handling. But who is going to provide the gap-filler skills like defense, physicality, and spacing? As of right now, this burden lies squarely on the shoulders of VJ Edgecombe — the second year slasher whose development is being put to the side in order to chase the title one last time in The Process era. Edgecombe flashed the ability to be this team’s connector in Year One, averaging 35.4% from downtown and placing in the 65th percentile in DEF EPM. Needless to say, flashing the potential to do something and actually being able to execute the task on a championship hopeful are two completely different things. For this experiment to work, Edgecombe is going to need to be one of the best glue guys in the association. Hopefully, he’s ready for the challenge.

Toronto Raptors

X-Factor: Immanuel Quickley

Explanation: The 2026-27 Toronto Raptors are trying to follow in the footsteps of their 2018-19 ancestors. In that hypothetical, Kawhi Leonard is himself (with a few more circumventions under his belt), Scottie Barnes is Pascal Siakam, Collin Murray-Boyles is a modern version of Marc Gasol, and Immanuel Quickley is…Kyle Lowry. I know, it’s crazy to compare Lowry — a player Basketball Reference gives an 85.7% chance of making the Hall of Fame — to someone who has never been better than an average point guard. But when you think about it, Quickley’s combination of ball handling, ability to play off high-usage players, and defense isn’t too dissimilar from Lowry’s role on that Raptors team. Injuries kept Quickley from making his Raptors postseason debut, and he didn’t start in any of the 13 playoff games he appeared in before then, so we don’t know if his skill set will translate to the game’s second season the way it did with Lowry — making him the perfect x-factor candidate.

Washington Wizards

X-Factor: Kyshawn George

Explanation: The best-kept secret in the association is just how good Kyshawn George is. He’s not the first, second, or probably not even third, player you think about when referencing the Washington Wizards’ young core, but I think there’s a real chance he’s their most impactful player not named Trae Young or Anthony Davis. As a rookie, George demonstrated the ability to carry out three-and-D responsibilities. This alone would be useful to the Wizards in the long-term. But, in Year Two, George showcased an off-the-dribble arsenal that vastly altered his perceived long-term outlook — giving him a chance to shed his perceived archetype. In the immediate future, George will be able to fall back into a more reasonable role with Young, Davis, and AJ Dybantsa now in the mix, but he also has the ability to expand his usage in a pinch with the experiences he gained last season. It isn’t out of the realm of possibility that George ends up being the Wizards’ version of OG Anunoby — handling high-level matchups, creating turnovers/altering shots on the weak side, attacking closeouts, and spacing the floor — and we saw how integral he was to the Knicks’ success last postseason.