The NBA Slam Dunk Contest, once the crown jewel of All-Star Weekend, is fighting to reclaim its spotlight. The weekend is packed with events, from the celebrity game to the three-point contest. But this year could make or break the Slam Dunk Contest’s reputation. For years, the event has been a lull. But this year, some atomic athleticism could be on display with the four participants.
Who gets the crown of possibly saving the once glamorous event? Users on Polymarket are making their picks. Polymarket is a prediction market where users trade shares on specific outcomes. For reference, if you invest 42 cents in the Lakers’ Jaxson Hayes for winning the dunk contest, you’ll make one dollar.
The platform also offers real-time odds across the rest of All-Star Weekend. For this breakdown, the focus is squarely on the dunk contest.
Polymarket odds are fluid, and could change by the time you’re reading this.
Imago
Jan 6, 2026; New Orleans, Louisiana, USA; Los Angeles Lakers center/forward Jaxson Hayes (11) during warm ups before the game against the New Orleans Pelicans at Smoothie King Center. Mandatory Credit: Stephen Lew-Imagn Images
Polymarket Odds for the 2026 NBA All-Star Dunk Contest
Jaxson Hayes: 31%
Jaxson Hayes is the giant in this year’s dunk contest. Standing at 7 feet tall, the Lakers’ big man primarily lives off catching dunks from Luka Doncic and LeBron James. He’s having a strong season for the Purple and Gold as a backup center. His combination of athleticism and creativity makes him one of the most attractive options to win this year’s All-Star Dunk Contest.
Carter Bryant: 33%
Carter Bryant is an unknown name for most. He’s a rookie for the San Antonio Spurs who thrives off speed and a 39.5-inch vertical. He’s an athletic freak. This year, he’s used his innate explosiveness to be a defensive hound for the Spurs. But the Dunk Contest is where he gets to fully showcase his athleticism. Bryant is seen as the favorite by the users on Polymarket.
Jase Richardson: 18%
Here’s where legacy comes into play. The Orlando Magic’s Jase Richardson is only 6’1”. However, Richardson defies size with his electric athleticism, similar to his father, Jason Richardson, who was a two-time Dunk Contest winner. He’s already put together a highlight reel of powerful in-game dunks. With the freedom of the contest format, expect Jase Richardson to be a sleeper pick.
Keshad Johnson: 22%
The Miami Heat’s Keshad Johnson has managed time between the G-League and the NBA. Even in limited NBA minutes, the undrafted guard has flashed as a fast-break terror. With a lane to take off, Johnson can rise high and throw the ball down with force. It’s one of the reasons he’s looked at as a close competitor besides Bryant and Jaxson Hayes.
Who do I think will win the NBA All-Star Dunk Contest?
The contestants at this year’s All-Star Dunk Contest come packed with excitement. However, if I were to have a pick, it would be the Lakers’ Jaxson Hayes. That edge comes down to volume and consistency. Hayes is primarily an above-the-rim threat and has gone between his legs at times to finish fast breaks. He’s the tallest contestant while still having guard-like burst in transition.
That blend makes Hayes the safest bet to take home the crown. Who are you picking?