Stephen Curry’s new Li-Ning partnership generated exactly the kind of reaction one would expect when one of the world’s highest-paid athletes changes shoe companies. Within hours of the announcement, social media users were circulating projections suggesting the Warriors superstar could eventually earn more than $1 billion from the deal. The problem? Those eye-popping figures were based on assumptions rather than the details that had actually been reported.

The speculation wasn’t entirely random. Modern endorsement deals can include revenue-sharing incentives, royalty payments, and long-term growth mechanisms tied to brand performance. Li-Ning’s announcement even included plans for Curry Brand retail stores across the United States and China, giving fans plenty of ammunition to project massive future earnings.

So, certain social media pages calculated that Stephen Curry could potentially clear over $1 billion in total lifetime value. “This endorsement deal with Li-Ning is tied to brand revenue — meaning the number could grow even higher over time — & it is estimated that he might earn more than $1.19 Billion over the span of 10 years 😳,” read one such post.

Another headline from 2023 suggested that Under Armour’s then extension would be equal to a potential “lifetime deal worth up to $1 billion” before the two parties split. But ESPN’s senior insider Shams Charania reported that Stephen Curry’s official base contract with Li-Ning is a 10-year endorsement worth over $400 million. “Curry opted for Li-Ning over other pitches from American and foreign companies despite similar financial commitments, including at least one brand that offered more, sources said.” Why the number $1 billion also seems far-fetched is because of the issues surrounding the Chinese brand.

The challenge for Li-Ning is that Curry Brand’s expansion plan starts from a relatively small base outside China. Front Office Sports reported that nearly 99% of Li-Ning’s 2025 revenue came from mainland China, despite generating roughly $4.2 billion in annual sales. While the company operates thousands of retail locations domestically, its North American footprint remains limited compared to giants such as Nike and Adidas.

The broader issues remain that U.S. Customs and Border Protection restricted the import of Li-Ning products over claims of ‘forced labour ‘ in 2022. But the Chinese brands called those allegations “misleading.” In fact, FOS couldn’t confirm if the restriction remains in place. These issues were already in place, even before Stephen Curry signed with Li-Ning.

Yet those risks help explain why Curry’s decision was not purely financial. According to Charania’s reporting, at least one competing company offered a more lucrative financial package. The difference appears to have been control. Under the Li-Ning structure, Curry retains ownership of Curry Brand intellectual property, can help shape athlete recruitment, and is expected to play a central role in expanding the business into new categories such as lifestyle products and golf. Those concessions are rarely available from established Western sportswear giants.

Why Stephen Curry still remains in a better place

Going back to 2013, Nike fumbled Curry. When his contract was up for renewal, he was treated like an afterthought rather than a future league MVP. In fact, the swoosh would recycle Kevin Durant’s presentation with his name visible on the screen.

Under Armour initially built one of the most successful athlete partnerships in basketball. But over time, Curry reportedly grew frustrated with the company’s inability to fully scale Curry Brand, particularly its failure to create standalone retail infrastructure around the line.

But Li-Ning now promised to build stores and even give the 4x NBA champion control over the true vision of Curry Brand. This means signing future stars to the brand, plus expansion even to the golf line. On the latter, Matt Powell, a footwear and retail industry expert, said, “could be bigger than the basketball piece” and “That’s where the money is, frankly.”

Ultimately, the deal looks less like a traditional endorsement agreement and more like a long-term business bet. Curry is wagering that ownership, autonomy, and global expansion can create something bigger than a standard shoe contract. Whether that eventually becomes the billion-dollar empire projected by some fans remains to be seen. What is already clear, however, is that Curry prioritized control over simply accepting the highest offer on the table.