The East made plenty of noise this offseason, adding more star power and All-Star talent. But the West has its own headline waiting for the 2026-27 NBA season. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Victor Wembanyama are ready to reignite the MVP race, while Luka Doncic now has full control of the Lakers. Stephen Curry, meanwhile, enters another season carrying a heavy load for Golden State.

The Western Conference still runs through Oklahoma City and San Antonio. That much feels clear after what happened last season. The Thunder went 64-18 and reached the Western Conference Finals, while the Spurs finished 62-20 and dethroned the defending champions in a seven-game series. San Antonio controlled the season series and sealed it with a Game 7 victory in Oklahoma City.

The bigger question is whether either team can separate itself from the other this time. Oklahoma City has the back-to-back MVP in Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. The supporting cast also involved Chet Holmgren and Jalen Williams. The biggest concern is not talent. It is availability. Williams missed 49 games last season recovering from wrist surgery and battling repeated hamstring strains, while Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein also missed significant time. Williams’ health could be especially important.

He missed the entire conference semifinal series against the Lakers before returning for Game 1 of the West finals. OKC still found ways to win without him, which says plenty about its depth. The Thunder did lose Luguentz Dort, Isaiah Joe and Aaron Wiggins, so some proven perimeter depth is gone. They did, however, keep Isaiah Hartenstein and Kenrich Williams. More importantly, the core remains intact.

San Antonio has fewer reasons to start over. Victor Wembanyama averaged 25.0 points, 11.5 rebounds and 3.1 blocks last season and enters Year 4 with De’Aaron Fox, Stephon Castle, Devin Vassell and Dylan Harper around him. Tobias Harris adds another experienced scorer, while Harrison Barnes and Julian Champagnie return. The Spurs reached the NBA Finals before falling to the New York Knicks.

That makes this less about rebuilding and more about finishing. OKC has already won an NBA championship with this core. San Antonio has already reached the Finals. Both know what the other can do now. That familiarity could make another heavyweight battle unavoidable. That makes the top of the West fascinating. But it also raises the obvious question: Can anyone stop OKC and San Antonio?

The Wolves are the Wild Card to upset NBA favorites

Minnesota is the team that could disrupt the West’s expected order. The Timberwolves went 49-33 last season and reached the second round, but the roster around Anthony Edwards looks very different now. The biggest change came at point guard. LaMelo Ball, acquired from Charlotte in a deal that sent Naz Reid the other way, gives Edwards a true high-level creator beside him, something Minnesota had not provided during Edwards’ rise. Ball averaged 20.1 points and 7.1 assists for Charlotte last NBA season.

The Wolves also added Jonathan Kuminga, Trey Lyles, Cody Williams and Isaiah Evans. At the same time, Julius Randle, Naz Reid, Mike Conley and Kyle Anderson are gone. That is a major shift in size, scoring and experience, even if Ball and Kuminga raise the ceiling.

Kuminga could be particularly important. Minnesota lost two major frontcourt scorers in Randle and Reid, so his ability to attack the rim and create his own offense gives Chris Finch another option next to Edwards and Rudy Gobert. Health is the other reason to keep Minnesota below Oklahoma City and San Antonio in this prediction.

Edwards missed 21 games last season and then suffered a hyperextended left knee and bone bruise in the NBA playoffs. He returned sooner than expected and played against San Antonio in the next round. Donte DiVincenzo was not as fortunate. He ruptured his right Achilles in the same game and underwent surgery, putting his 2026-27 availability in question. The Wolves have enough talent to challenge the top two.

Ball’s playmaking could take pressure off Edwards, while Kuminga adds another athletic scorer. But replacing Randle, Reid and Conley is not simple. That makes Minnesota the West’s wild card. The upside is enormous, but there are enough unanswered questions to keep the Wolves at No. 3 rather than pushing them past the conference’s two established powers.

The Lakers, Rockets and Nuggets Battle for the Middle of the West

The most interesting part of this Western Conference projection may be the group sitting directly behind Minnesota. Denver, Houston and the Lakers all have enough star power to push higher, but each team enters the season with a different question to answer.

In this projection, the Lakers land fourth at 48-34, followed by Houston at 49-33 and Denver at 50-32. The order may look unusual on paper, but each team has a different path to its projected finish. The new-look Lakers headline the group.

LeBron James left in free agency, leaving Luka Doncic as the clear centerpiece of the offense. Los Angeles added Walker Kessler, Quentin Grimes, Collin Sexton and Sandro Mamukelashvili, while Austin Reaves remains alongside Doncic. Kessler gives the Lakers a legitimate defensive anchor, while Grimes and Sexton add more scoring and ball-handling around their star.

The Lakers won 53 games last season, but Doncic missed the entire postseason after suffering a Grade 2 left hamstring strain in April. Now, the bigger challenge is replacing the continuity lost with LeBron, Rui Hachimura, Deandre Ayton and several other rotation pieces. Still, Doncic’s offensive responsibility and the additions around him give Los Angeles a path to another strong regular season.

Houston comes in fifth despite winning 52 games last season. Kevin Durant averaged 26.0 points, 5.5 rebounds, and 4.8 assists in his first season with the Rockets, giving them a proven offensive centerpiece. Amen Thompson and Jabari Smith Jr. remain important pieces, while Fred VanVleet returns, and Houston has added Marcus Smart and Bogdan Bogdanovic.

The concern is spacing. Houston ranked 25th in three-pointers made last season and shot only 30.2% from deep during the playoffs. If that weakness continues, the Rockets could struggle against teams that force them to win from the perimeter.

Denver drops to sixth in this projection despite Nikola Jokic remaining one of the league’s most reliable offensive engines. The Nuggets added DeMar DeRozan and Cam Whitmore, giving the Joker more scoring options, while Christian Braun and Julian Strawther provide younger pieces around the veteran core.

For Denver, the question is less about star power and more about depth and consistency. Jokic can keep the Nuggets competitive, but the supporting cast will have to hold up over 82 games. That puts the Lakers slightly ahead in this projection, with Houston and Denver close behind in what could become one of the West’s tightest races.

The NBA Play-In Battle

The middle of the West could be even harder to separate than the top. Golden State finished 37-45 last season and made the Play-In for the third straight year. Stephen Curry remains the centerpiece, but the Warriors also need Jimmy Butler to recover from the knee injury that ended his season. Their biggest offseason addition was No. 11 pick Yaxel Lendeborg, the Summer League MVP, while Georges Niang and Brandon Williams also joined the roster.

That keeps Golden State in the Play-In conversation, but the margin is thin.

Dallas has Cooper Flagg entering the season after winning the ROTY. Plus, he finally plays alongside Kyrie Irving. Phoenix added Miles Bridges and kept key pieces around Devin Booker. The Clippers now face a major reset after losing both Kawhi Leonard and James Harden.

Darius Garland remains a key piece, while the team will need its revamped roster to make up for the departure of its two biggest stars. Portland now has Ja Morant, acquired from Memphis for Jerami Grant and Kris Murray, alongside a young core that includes Scoot Henderson, Shaedon Sharpe and Donovan Clingan.

Golden State’s experience gives it an advantage in a crowded race, but age and health remain major variables. Curry missed 27 games last season, while Butler played only 38 games before his ACL injury. The latter is sidelined until January or after All-Star break. If Curry is out for an extended period, the Play-In race could quickly move away from them.

Why Memphis and New Orleans Fall Outside

Memphis and New Orleans have young talent, but both enter the NBA season with too many questions to comfortably project into the Play-In.

The Grizzlies finished 25-57 in the last NBA season and then made the biggest possible change by trading Ja Morant to Portland for Jerami Grant and Kris Murray. Cameron Boozer, the No. 3 overall pick, now becomes one of the franchise’s central pieces, while Isaiah Stewart and Quinten Post add more frontcourt options.

The problem is the transition. Memphis is replacing Morant’s shot creation while asking Boozer and its younger players to take on bigger roles. The Grizzlies also lost Santi Aldama and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope. That is a lot to replace in one offseason.

New Orleans has a different problem. The Pelicans finished 26-56, 11 games outside the Play-In during the last NBA season, and largely stayed with the same core. Zion Williamson remains the biggest swing factor after another injury-interrupted season, while Dejounte Murray continued his recovery from an Achilles injury. Trey Murphy III also missed the end of last season with a torn labrum.

There is talent here. Zion, Murphy, Murray, Jordan Poole, Herb Jones and Derik Queen give New Orleans enough pieces to make the standings interesting. But availability has repeatedly prevented that group from building momentum.

That is why both teams fall outside the Play-In in this projection. Memphis is beginning a reset without Morant, while New Orleans still needs its core to stay healthy long enough to turn potential into wins.

For the upcoming NBA season, the West may not have one dominant team. It has two established powers: a Minnesota team capable of crashing the top tier, a reworked Lakers roster built around Luka Doncic, and a massive group fighting for the Play-In.