The Oklahoma City Thunder have spent years building a team most franchises would love to have. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Chet Holmgren and Jalen Williams are all locked into long-term deals, giving OKC a young core capable of competing for championships. But keeping that core together is about to get much more expensive.

Zach Harper of The Athletic pointed to the Thunder’s second-apron situation as a problem that is already starting to shape the roster. “The second apron is rearing its ugly head with OKC in real time and will continue to do so as long as the Thunder keep that big three together. They might have to make a big-time decision soon.”

That decision could eventually involve Holmgren, with Harper pointing to one matchup in particular as a possible factor. “If Holmgren continues to struggle against Victor Wembanyama when it matters most, then maybe that decision becomes easier.” And that warning carries more weight after what happened between the two young big men in the Western Conference Finals.

The Thunder have already felt the cost of that pressure. Oklahoma City traded Lu Dort, Aaron Wiggins and Isaiah Joe this offseason to cut salary and avoid the second-apron line. Dort’s departure alone was described by general manager Sam Presti as “a financial decision.”

Presti also explained what the savings could mean for the team. “The impression I have been given is that the savings generated this summer, and from being out of the tax the last several years, will be reallocated to future teams… the decisions this summer have positioned us financially to maintain a team of this caliber.”

Holmgren’s contract only makes that problem more important. His five-year rookie maximum extension is worth $240.7 million, with his salary starting at $41.5 million in 2026-27 and rising to $54.8 million by 2030-31.

And Holmgren is only one piece of the problem. The Thunder’s three-man core is projected to cost roughly $123.8 million in 2026-27, with that number rising to about $185.2 million by 2030-31. That leaves Oklahoma City with less room to keep the supporting cast around them.

Chet Holmgren Has a Problem to Solve Against Victor Wembanyama

The 2026 Western Conference Finals gave Harper’s warning some real weight. San Antonio beat Oklahoma City 4-3, and Holmgren averaged just 10.7 points and 7.1 rebounds while shooting 42.1% from the field. Wembanyama, meanwhile, averaged 22.4 points, 11.8 rebounds and 3.4 blocks over the seven games.

The gap was even harder to ignore in Game 7. Holmgren finished with just 4 points on 1-of-7 shooting in 33 minutes, while Wembanyama had 26 points and 13 rebounds in San Antonio’s 111-103 win. Oklahoma City even turned to Isaiah Hartenstein to handle more of the matchup against Wembanyama, allowing Holmgren to work more as a roamer.

Still, this is not a report that Oklahoma City is shopping Holmgren. Harper’s point is about a future decision: if the Thunder eventually find that three maximum-level contracts leave too little room to build a deep roster, Holmgren’s struggles against Wembanyama could become one factor in deciding how the core is constructed.

There is also a gap across their eight NBA meetings. Holmgren has averaged 13.8 points, 7.5 rebounds and 2.1 assists against Wembanyama, while Wembanyama has put up 17.0 points, 9.9 rebounds and 2.9 assists. The teams are still tied 4-4 in those games, showing that the individual numbers have not translated into a clear winner every time they meet.

But reducing Holmgren to his numbers against Wembanyama would miss why Oklahoma City gave him a maximum extension in the first place. He averaged 17.1 points, 8.5 rebounds and 2.3 blocks during the regular season while shooting 37.1% from three. He was also named to the 2025-26 All-Defensive First Team, giving the Thunder a big man who can protect the rim without taking away their spacing.

The second apron makes that squeeze even tougher. Teams above the line lose tools that other contenders can use to reshape their rosters, including the ability to combine salaries in trades and access to the mid-level exception. For a team trying to keep three expensive stars while still adding depth, those restrictions can quickly become a problem.

The Thunder are not the first contender to face this kind of choice. Boston kept its top stars together after moving past the second apron but accepted a thinner supporting cast, while Denver and Minnesota also faced major depth and tax decisions after building expensive cores. Those examples show why Oklahoma City may eventually have to decide how much depth it is willing to sacrifice to keep all three stars together.

For now, the Thunder still have every reason to believe in their three-man core. But the financial pressure is no longer something they can ignore. Oklahoma City has already sacrificed valuable depth to stay below the second apron, and the price of keeping Gilgeous-Alexander, Holmgren and Williams will only rise. If Holmgren can close the gap in the biggest games against Wembanyama, he can make the Thunder’s long-term decision much easier. If the same problems continue, Harper’s warning could become much harder for Oklahoma City to ignore.