The margin for error just collapsed in Golden State, and it happened at the worst possible time. With the trade deadline looming and the Western Conference tightening by the day, the Warriors suddenly find themselves operating without flexibility, leverage, or clarity. One injury changed everything. And now, every potential move comes with a premium attached.

That pressure became clearer this week when the Warriors learned what it would actually cost to replace Jimmy Butler. According to a Substack report from NBA insider Marc Stein, the Dallas Mavericks are unwilling to engage in trade discussions for Naji Marshall unless a first-round pick is included. Marshall has emerged as a realistic contingency plan for Golden State after Butler’s season-ending ACL injury, but the price immediately reframes how aggressive the Warriors can be before the Feb. 5 deadline.

That revelation matters because Marshall has quietly emerged as a realistic contingency plan for Golden State after Butler’s season-ending ACL injury. And more importantly, it reframes how aggressive the Warriors are willing to be before the Feb. 5 deadline.

Jimmy Butler’s injury did more than remove a scorer from the lineup. It stripped the Warriors of their secondary wing option at a moment when Stephen Curry is carrying the offense at full tilt.

Because of that, Golden State’s need is specific. They need a wing who can defend, score without dominating the ball, and survive next to Curry. Marshall checks those boxes, which is why his name surfaced so quickly in league circles.

However, Dallas is not treating him like a throw-in. Stein’s report makes it clear that the Mavericks view Marshall as more than rotational depth. They are demanding a first-round pick as the baseline for any discussion, despite his $9 million salary and bench origins earlier in his career.

That stance is not accidental. While Marshall spent his first four seasons in New Orleans as a reserve, his role has changed dramatically since arriving in Dallas. He broke out during his first season with the Mavericks, and with injuries ravaging their roster this year, Jason Kidd has elevated him into the starting lineup. Marshall has delivered consistently in that role, reinforcing Dallas’ valuation.

As a result, the Warriors are not negotiating from a position of strength. Even though they control multiple future first-round picks and could technically meet the asking price, the question is whether they are willing to do so for a non-star. That answer becomes clearer when viewed through another ongoing pursuit.

The Warriors’ offer for another wing is not very encouraging for the Mavs trade

While Marshall represents a potential solution, Trey Murphy III has long been the Warriors’ preferred target.

According to Brett Siegel of ClutchPoints, the Golden State Warriors have made repeated calls to the Pelicans in pursuit of Murphy. That pursuit, however, has stalled. New Orleans is asking for a steep return, and the Warriors have drawn their own line in response.

Siegel reported on X that Golden State’s maximum offer sits at two first-round picks, with one protected in the future. They are unwilling to escalate beyond that, despite Murphy being an elite defender with superior scoring upside.

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That detail matters. Murphy is a $28 million player with a higher ceiling than Marshall, yet Golden State is still reluctant to empty its asset chest. That hesitation reflects how tightly the organization values its first-round picks, especially with Jonathan Kuminga’s future unresolved and Butler sidelined for the year.

Because of that, the implications for a Marshall deal are hard to ignore.

If the Warriors are unwilling to exceed a capped offer for Murphy, the odds of surrendering a first-round pick for a $9 million role player appear slim. The logic is consistent, even if the circumstances are uncomfortable.

The Warriors are boxed in by timing, injury, and philosophy. They need help on the wing immediately. They know the price for Marshall. And they have already shown restraint in talks for Murphy. That combination suggests Golden State may be approaching the deadline with more caution than urgency.

Still, the pressure is real. Butler’s absence has thinned the margin for survival in a crowded conference, and relying solely on internal solutions places an enormous burden on Curry.

With Feb. 5 approaching, Golden State must now decide whether maintaining long-term flexibility is worth the short-term risk. They have learned the price of their contingency plan. What they do with that information will define the rest of their season.