As Stephen Curry prepares to return, the Golden State Warriors find themselves in an unexpected position. A team once pushed toward tanking after a rash of season-ending injuries now suddenly has a legitimate shot at a top draft pick without bottoming out. That twist has fueled a growing conspiracy theory around the league’s latest lottery dynamics.

Bill Simmons, through his popular “Conspiracy Bill” segment, recently floated the idea that the Warriors could end up winning the draft lottery. His reasoning ties directly to the NBA’s ongoing effort to curb tanking, with Adam Silver and the Board of Governors discussing an expanded lottery format that includes Play-In teams. That shift alone gives Golden State a path to the lottery without deliberately losing games.

And to further solidify a better shot, Simmons added, “The league doesn’t want to waste Steph’s last few years. They want to keep the Warriors a marquee franchise.” It’s a no-brainer that Stephen Curry‘s influence built the Warriors’ legacy, and Silver would want to retain it for longer. He not only won 4 rings but lifted the franchise’s valuation from $315 million to one of the most valuable franchises at $11 billion. With the clock ticking and the latest Draft Lottery changes, the team’s current odds at No.1 pick are at 2% and 9.4% for the top-4 picks if they lose Play-in.

If that scenario plays out, Golden State could either add elite prospects like AJ Dybantsa, Darryn Peterson, Cameron Boozer, or Caleb Wilson, or flip the pick in a blockbuster move for established stars such as LeBron James or Kawhi Leonard.

The Warriors have been searching for ways to extend their dynasty around Curry. With Klay Thompson no longer on the roster and Draymond Green showing signs of decline, the urgency to reload has only increased. A high lottery pick could accelerate that transition faster than expected.

Will Stephen Curry & Co. walk away with #1 pick?

If they fail to advance past the Play-In tournament, the Warriors would enter the lottery with a realistic shot at landing one of the top-4 picks. That possibility has sparked a bigger question: would the league ever tilt the odds in favor of a marquee franchise like Golden State?

While there is no evidence to support those claims, fans have continued to speculate on the Draft Lottery for decades.  Addressing the idea, Bill Simmons referenced a hypothetical draft outcome that appeared suspicious on the surface.

Describing that scenario, the 56-year-old said, “Funniest rig lottery outcomes where we’d be like, oh my God, I can’t believe they did that. That was so blatant.” He was referring to the Dallas Mavericks‘ 2025 No.1 pick. It was conspired that the league gave away the Draft Lottery as a prize for trading Luka Doncic.

With Curry expected to return soon, the Warriors still have a chance to push through the Play-In and keep their postseason hopes alive. However, if they fall short, the lottery suddenly becomes a meaningful fallback rather than a failure. That dual path, contention or a top pick, is exactly what makes this conspiracy theory so compelling heading into the final stretch.