It is rare in the world of sports to get the heavyweight fights we’ve been dreaming about all season. Part of me will never forgive the 2008-09 Orlando Magic for upsetting the Cleveland Cavaliers in the Eastern Conference Finals and denying us a chance to see LeBron James and Kobe Bryant battle in the NBA Finals. So, in the few instances where the Basketball Gods grace us with these spectacles, we need to appreciate them.

In a nutshell, this is what we have in the Western Conference duel between the Oklahoma City Thunder and San Antonio Spurs. The teams with the two best records, the two best defenses, and (probably) the two best players in the association.

This has all the makings of an instant classic, which means that a ton of money will be changing hands in the sports gambling world. But despite the two teams appearing pretty equal on paper, the underdog has a slight edge.

The Spurs Are The Perfect Counter To The Thunder

As the reigning champs, the Thunder were always awarded the gravitas of a title contender. For the Spurs, their public service announcement came in mid-December, when they knocked off the Thunder in the NBA Cup Semifinals.

If that outstanding declaration wasn’t enough, the Spurs went on to beat them three times in their next four meetings (giving them a 4-1 record in the season series), with all three victories coming by double digits.

Some context is needed here. Ajay Mitchell, one of the major standouts of this postseason, did not play in any of those last three losses. Then, in the third loss, the Thunder did not have any of their championship starting five (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Luguentz Dort, Jalen Williams, Chet Holmgren, and Isaiah Hartenstein).

Jared McCain, the team’s vibrant combo guard, had also yet to join the team. Of course, Spurs’ advocates could add their own caveats. First off, Wembanyama came off the bench in three of those four wins, as he was operating on a minutes restriction after returning from injury.

Second, Julian Champagnie had yet to be added to the starting lineup on a full-time basis for three of those four wins (San Antonio went 39-11 to close out the season after he officially joined the opening group on December 31st). And lastly, Carter Bryant, who has been a pleasant surprise for the team this postseason, hardly played in their five contests (19 total minutes).

There is some weirdness involved in their prior meetings, as is the case with most regular season clashes. But for the most part, the Spurs seem to be the perfect foil for the Thunder.

Defensively, the quartet of Stephon Castle, Dylan Harper, De’Aaron Fox, and Devin Vassell are agile lateral movers, who all have their styles for disrupting ball handlers at the point-of-attack.

On the season, the four of them all ranked in the 70th percentile or higher in Defensive Estimated Plus-Minus (per Dunks & Threes), and their shared presence on the roster means that no single one of them has to shoulder the task of shadowing Gilgeous-Alexander on their own.

Plus, if all else fails, the best rim protector in the stratosphere (Wemby, duh!) is going to be lurking in the shadows to clean up any spots that they miss.

On offense, former coach and Amazon Prime Video analyst, Stan Van Gundy, summarized it best during their aforementioned NBA Cup showdown:

“The one thing OKC does do, because they are so focused on protecting the paint, if you can handle the ball and take care of it, you can create some open threes on the weak side. They give up quite a few threes. That’s the only thing close to a weakness defensively.”

As you can infer from some of his sentiments, Van Gundy thinks very highly of the Thunder’s historic defensive bunch. They deny shots at the rim (8th in opponent rim frequency) and pick you clean any time you try to venture into their stomping grounds (second in opponent turnover rate).

However, between all the guards we cited earlier, the Spurs have the requisite amount of creation to endure their swarming fleet. In the regular season, the Spurs were fifth in turnover rate (13.3%), and that percentage was virtually unchanged in their five games against the Thunder (13.5%) – which shows that they assimilated well to their speed, length, and intensity.

Wembanyama also poses a unique set of problems for Oklahoma City. He is too quick for their traditional centers (like Hartenstein), and, this season, he has become too big and too strong to be bothered by the tactic of putting smaller/quicker defenders on him.

In the regular season, his minutes limit held him to 25.1 MPG against the Thunder (the Spurs had a +19.3 plus-minus). No such constraint exists now.

Why You Bet San Antonio

Like I said when I prescribed that you all take the Los Angeles Lakers to beat the Houston Rockets in the first round (you’re welcome, by the way), the goal of medium/long-term bets like this is to gain value. What do I mean by this?

Well, by no means do I predict that the Spurs are going to dismiss the Thunder from the postseason by way of a gentleman’s sweep. But, given all the data I’ve thrown in your direction, you’d at least consider the series a toss-up, right?

That is not how oddsmakers are viewing things right now. According to DraftKings, the Spurs are listed at +210 to advance to the NBA Finals, which is an implied probability of 32.3%. If you are drinking the Essentially Sports Kool-Aid and see this series as more of a coin flip, that means you are getting value on your wager. Plus, since it is plus odds, that means you win more money than you risk!!

Regardless if you enjoy or resent the widespread popularization of sports betting, one thing is certain: the Spurs are coming, and for the Thunder’s sake, I just hope they are prepared to face them.