The margin for error has not disappeared for the Los Angeles Lakers, even after another win. If anything, it has become sharper. Fresh off a 105–99 victory over the Golden State Warriors, the Lakers extended their streak to three straight wins despite being without Luka Dončić and DeAndre Ayton. That context mattered on Saturday night, because it was immediately after that win that Shaquille O’Neal reframed where this season is headed.

Speaking on NBA on ESPN, Shaquille O’Neal made a clear playoff claim. In his view, the Lakers are not just surviving the Western Conference race. They are positioned to win a first-round series against the Houston Rockets if the postseason started right now.

“The Lakers are, believe it or not, right where they want to be,” O’Neal said. “They’re between three and five, they’ve got 19 losses going into the All-Star break, and they’re in a dead heat with the Rockets. They haven’t even been at full strength yet.”

That confidence stood in stark contrast to how this matchup looked on Christmas Day, when Houston dismantled Los Angeles in a nationally televised blowout. Kevin Durant’s Rockets shredded the Lakers’ defense and exposed every weakness, making the idea of a playoff upset feel unrealistic at the time.

Months later, O’Neal believes the math and the momentum tell a different story.

“They’re a little up and down, but if everybody gets back, I think they can beat the Rockets in the first round if the playoffs started right now,” he added.

Can the Lakers beat the Rockets in the playoffs if it started today?

At first glance, Shaq’s argument is backed by the standings. Both teams sit at 32–19, locked together near the top of the Western Conference. That identical record gives his claim immediate credibility.

However, the paths to those wins have looked very different. Houston profiles like a contender on paper. The Rockets rank inside the league’s top 10 in three-point shooting, lead the NBA in rebounding, and sit among the top five defensive teams. By comparison, the Lakers are outside the top 20 in defense and near the bottom of the league on the glass.

Still, Los Angeles has quietly compensated elsewhere. The Lakers lead the NBA in field-goal percentage, and more importantly, they have been the best clutch team in basketball. Late-game execution has tilted close contests their way, while Houston has struggled to close under pressure.

That imbalance explains why two teams with such different statistical identities have arrived at the same record. Recent form has only widened that contrast. Over the last 10 games, the Lakers have remained steady offensively while Houston’s offense has slipped near the bottom of the league. At the same time, Los Angeles has climbed eight spots defensively during that span, showing tangible improvement on the end that once defined its ceiling.

Meanwhile, roster context cannot be ignored. The Lakers have added Luke Kennard, one of the league’s elite three-point shooters, while still waiting to consistently deploy a healthy core. That creates a version of this team that Houston has not yet faced.

There is also a postseason variable Shaq trusts more than regular-season numbers. Los Angeles will enter any series led by LeBron James and Luka Dončić, two of the most proven playoff performers in the league. Experience, shot creation, and late-game decision-making tend to carry disproportionate weight once rotations tighten.

Preseason expectations painted Houston as a true challenger to Oklahoma City, while the Lakers were viewed as flawed and volatile. With 31 games left, those narratives are no longer static.

The Rockets remain deeper and more consistent defensively. The Lakers remain dangerous, streaky, and increasingly comfortable in close games. That tension is exactly why Shaq’s prediction resonates. It does not dismiss Houston’s strengths. It identifies where playoff basketball often bends away from regular-season logic.

If the bracket holds and these teams meet, the Lakers will not be favored on paper. But they will enter believing they are exactly where they want to be.