The San Antonio Spurs reached the NBA Finals by building the league’s most feared defense around Victor Wembanyama. Against the defending champion Oklahoma City Thunder, that formula worked almost perfectly. Wembanyama roamed the paint, erased driving lanes and helped hold back-to-back MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander well below his regular-season efficiency.

But according to Magic Johnson, the strategy that eliminated Oklahoma City may not survive the Finals.

“Victor Wembanyama dominated the paint on defense during the Series against OKC while playing in a zone, but that won’t work against the Knicks given the 3-point shooting ability of Karl-Anthony Towns and OG Anunoby,” Johnson wrote on X.

The reasoning behind it is rooted in a simple reality: the Knicks are built very differently from Oklahoma City. During the Western Conference Finals, San Antonio was comfortable allowing Victor Wembanyama to roam near the basket because neither Isaiah Hartenstein nor Chet Holmgren consistently punished that approach. Holmgren shot just 27.3% from three during the series, while Hartenstein attempted only one three-pointer across seven games.

The Knicks present the opposite problem. Karl-Anthony Towns is shooting 48.9% from three in the playoffs while OG Anunoby is converting 48.3% of his attempts. If Wembanyama camps in the paint against New York, both players have the shooting gravity to immediately punish the Spurs from the perimeter.

The reason Magic’s warning carries weight is that San Antonio’s entire defensive scheme against Oklahoma City was designed around keeping Wembanyama near the rim. The Spurs routinely deployed him as a roaming “free safety,” allowing their perimeter defenders to pressure Shai Gilgeous-Alexander while Wembanyama waited as the final line of defense. The strategy worked brilliantly, holding the MVP to just 37.9% shooting through the first six games of the series after he shot 55.3% during the regular season.

Wembanyama offers arguably the best rim protection in basketball. The challenge for San Antonio is that New York’s spacing is specifically designed to pull rim protectors away from the basket. If Karl-Anthony Towns continues shooting anywhere near his current playoff percentage, the Spurs may be forced to defend in ways they never had to against Oklahoma City. That opens up the elbow and restricted area for Jalen Brunson to start cooking.

That’s where Karl-Anthony Towns becomes the series’ most important chess piece. When the Knicks run pick-and-pop actions with Towns and Jalen Brunson, Wembanyama faces an impossible choice. Stay near the basket and Towns gets open looks from deep. Step out to respect Towns’ shooting and the Spurs lose the elite rim protection that fueled their run through the Western Conference. Towns is also averaging 5.9 assists per game in the playoffs, making him a dangerous playmaker if San Antonio overcommits to taking away his shot.

That doesn’t mean the Spurs are out of answers. One potential counter is using Wembanyama as a helper off Josh Hart, who is shooting just 30.3% from three during the playoffs. Such an alignment would allow Wembanyama to remain closer to the basket while still helping on drives and protecting the rim, preserving the defensive identity that carried San Antonio past Oklahoma City.

Mike Brown understands the challenge awaiting the Knicks

“They’re a team that comes out really aggressive and hits first. Their crowd is into it, and we just have to go and make sure that we try to match or exceed their physicality to start the ball game while leaning on our standards,” Brown said about the modern Spurs.

Brown’s comments reflect the challenge facing both coaching staffs. While much of the attention will focus on Wembanyama versus Towns, the series may ultimately come down to which team can force the other out of its preferred style. The Spurs want Wembanyama protecting the paint. The Knicks want him defending 25 feet from the basket. Every possession will become a battle over where the league’s best defender is positioned.

The numbers suggest both sides have a legitimate case. New York enters the Finals shooting 40% from three as a team during the playoffs, one of the best marks in the postseason. Meanwhile, Spurs opponents are shooting 19.1% worse at the rim when Wembanyama is on the floor, highlighting just how much damage he does as an interior defender.

The central question of the series is whether New York’s spacing can pull him away from his greatest strength before San Antonio’s defense imposes itself. That dilemma is exactly what Magic was pointing to. The Knicks don’t need to outplay Wembanyama at the rim if they can prevent him from being there in the first place.

Magic Johnson’s warning isn’t that Victor Wembanyama can’t defend the Knicks. It’s that New York forces him into decisions Oklahoma City never could. Against the Thunder, the Spurs comfortably stationed their Defensive Player of the Year near the rim and dared opposing shooters to beat them. Against Karl-Anthony Towns and OG Anunoby, that luxury may no longer exist.

Whether the Knicks can consistently pull Wembanyama away from the basket or whether San Antonio finds creative ways to keep him there could ultimately decide the 2026 NBA Finals.