March Madness is in full force this season, and in under 24 hours, the Sweet 16 will kick off. As its name suggests, 16 teams are still standing in the battle for the championship, but by the time the weekend is over, only four will remain.

But before we get into the action, it’s time to rank the 16 teams still standing to see who has the best chance to win it all. Here are my Sweet 16 rankings prior to Thursday’s games.

16. (11) Texas Longhorns

Sweet 16 Matchup: (2) Purdue Boilermakers

Championship Odds: +15000

Everyone loves a Cinderella, even when the Cinderella team is one of the biggest institutions in the nation. The Texas Longhorns hardly snuck into the tournament and had to beat N.C. State in the First Four to even get into the Round of 32. They’ve had a high-flying offense all season, but they’ve really stepped it up defensively in the tournament, and it’s a big reason they’re where they are right now.

The thing with Texas is, all three of their NCAA Tournament wins have been close, so you have to wonder when their luck is going to run out. Daylin Swain and Jordan Pope have been balling, but they’re about to run into a very good Purdue team. It’s hard to see them winning another game.

15. (9) Iowa Hawkeyes

Sweet 16 Matchup: (4) Nebraska Cornhuskers

Championship Odds: +8000

The Iowa Hawkeyes were ice cold entering March Madness, winning just three of their last 10 games entering the tournament, but they’ve turned things around and were able to upset the 1-seed in the South with a one-point win over the Florida Gators. Now, they have to turn around and play a red-hot Nebraska team that just won the first two March Madness games in program history.

Early in the season, the Hawkeyes were a very balanced team. They were really solid on both offense and defense, and if it weren’t for that 10-game skid, they could’ve been a 6-seed or higher. When this team is rolling and guys like Bennett Stiritz are hot, they can be very dangerous. Nebraska needs to watch out, because they are absolutely on upset watch.

14. (6) Tennessee Volunteers

Sweet 16 Matchup: (2) Iowa State

Championship Odds: +6500

The Tennessee Volunteers are in a tier of their own. They’re not the underdogs Texas and Iowa are, but they’re also not a top seed that was expected to make it this far. They’re the only team seeded 5-8 to make the Sweet 16, but they are still a threat to pull off an upset in the Sweet 16.

Ja’Kobi Gillespie has been red hot this tournament, averaging 25 points per game. He’s the kind of guy you need on your team to make a run in March. Guard play usually defines who wins and losses in the tournament, so when you have a guy that can takeover a game on his own, it really helps your chances. The only thing is, Iowa State, their Sweet 16 opponent, ranks top-10 in PPG allowed. If this ends up being a low-scoring game, it favors the Cyclone’s style of play more than Tennessee’s, even though they are also a very good defensive team.

13. (4) Nebraska Cornhuskers

Sweet 16 Matchup: (9) Iowa Hawkeyes

Championship Odds: +6500

The Nebraska Cornhuskers won a tournament game for the first time in program history this year, and now they’re in the Sweet 16 playing easily their biggest game in school history. They dodged a bullet with Florida losing to Iowa (and Vanderbilt rimming out on a half-court heave at the buzzer, which would’ve won them the game), because their chances of making the Elite Eight just tripled, but they can’t sleep on the Hawkeyes.

This team just feels destined to keep on winning, at least in the Sweet 16. Iowa is playing great basketball right now, but so are the Cornhuskers, and the ball seems to keep bouncing their way. We’ll see if they can move on to the Elite Eight, but either way, this has been an incredible run for their program.

12. (3) Alabama Crimson Tide

Sweet 16 Matchup: (1) Michigan Wolverines

Championship Odds: +8000

Despite losing one of their best players to legal issues before the tournament, the Alabama Crimson Tide have cruised their way to the Sweet 16 with a pair of 20+ point wins over Hofstra and Texas Tech. Under Nate Oats, Alabama has been all about offense. They’ve ranked No. 1 in scoring in each of the past three seasons, and this year’s team has been his most efficient, averaging nearly 92 PPG.

Despite losing Aden Holloway, the Crimson Tide have scored 90 points in each of their first two NCAA Tournament games. However, they now have to play a Michigan team that gives up fewer than 70 PPG this season and is coming off 101 and 95-point outings in their first two games. This is going to be a tough test for Oats’ group.

11. (4) Arkansas Razorbacks

Sweet 16 Matchup: (1) Arizona Wildcats

Championship Odds: +4500

John Calipari’s teams have pretty much always been guard-centric. He’s had some incredible big men during his career, but guys like John Wall, Derrick Rose and Devin Booker have helped make him one of the best coaches in college basketball. This year’s Arkansas team is no different.

Led by Darius Acuff Jr., the Razorbacks have scored 97 and 94 points in their first two NCAA Tournament games. They finished the season as the No. 2 scoring offense, but their Achilles heal has been their defense, which ranked 325th in the country. They’ve been able to outscore their opponents for most of the season, but that’s going to be tough to do against Arizona this week.

10. (3) Michigan State Spartans

Sweet 16 Matchup: (2) UConn Huskies

Championship Odds: +3000

Tom Izzo is another coach who is notorious for having elite guard play. Guys like Cashius Winston and Mateen Cleaves have led some of his best teams, and this year, his star guard is Jeremy Fears.

Fears leads the team in scoring with over 15 PPG, but he also averages 9.4 assists per game, which leads the nation. He commands this offense, and while he’s averaging fewer than 10 PPG in March Madness, he’s averaging 13.5 assists per game in the tournament. When he’s on, they’re hard to beat, but they have a really good UConn team standing between them and the Elite Eight.

9. (2) UConn Huskies

Sweet 16 Matchup: (3) Michigan State Spartans

Championship Odds: +2200

Speaking of UConn, they’re my ninth-ranked team left in the tournament. I just said this UConn team is really good, because they are, but they’re also not as good as some of the previous UConn teams, namely the ones that went back-to-back in 2023 and 2024.

The guard play on this Huskies team isn’t as good as they’ve had in the past, but they can get it done defensively, which they showed by holding UCLA to just 57 points in the Round of 32. I think their Sweet 16 matchup against MSU will be one of the better games of the week. They’re two pretty evenly matched teams, so it should be a really close battle.

8. (5) St. John’s Red Storm

Sweet 16 Matchup: (1) Duke Blue Devils

Championship Odds: +3300

This may seem a bit high for St. John’s, but they’ve been my “dark horse” team for the entire tournament. Rick Pitino just knows how to win, and his team this year is as tough as nails. I wish they didn’t have to play Duke this round, because I would love to see them make a deeper run, but I also wouldn’t be shocked at all if they found a way to win this game.

This team is led by Zuby Ejiofor, who averages 16.3 PPG, and Bryce Hopkins, who averages 13.6 PPG, but the hero of their two-point win over Kansas was Dylan Darling, who made the game-winner to send St. John’s to the Sweet 16. If St. John’s wants to knock of Duke, they’re going to have to play some tough, defensive basketball. They’re capable of pulling off the upset, but it’s going to be tough.

7. (3) Illinois Fighting Illini

Sweet 16 Matchup: (2) Houston Cougars

Championship Odds: +1600

These next three teams were extremely hard to rank. I think they’re all very good teams that could get hot and potentially even win it all, but for now, I have to put Illinois behind the other two. The Fighting Illini just haven’t been tested in the tournament as much as the others, with their two wins coming against 14-seed Penn and 11-seed VCU.

Illinois has one of the best offenses in the country, and they’re led by freshman guard Keaton Wagler, who is averaging 32 PPG in his first two tournament games. Now, they have to face Houston, who has the best defense in the country. One side’s got to give, it’s just a question of which side it’ll be.

6. (2) Purdue Boilermakers

Sweet 16 Matchup: (11) Texas Longhorns

Championship Odds: +1300

The Purdue Boilermakers are red hot offensively, having won their last six games while scoring 81 PPG and shooting 52 percent from the floor as a team. Those are some pretty good numbers, and a part of the reason they’re so good offensively is because of how balanced they are. They’re led by Braden Smith, who shoots nearly 37 percent from three and averages nine assists per game, bu tey have three other players averaging 10+ PGG, with two of them scoring over 14 PPG.

Purdue gets the luxury of playing Texas in the Sweet 16. At this point in the season, you can’t sleep on anyone, but the Longhorns are comfortably the worst team left in the tournament. Still, they can’t let their guard down or else this will be another disappointing end to the year for Purdue.

5. (2) Iowa State Cyclones

Sweet 16 Matchup: (6) Tennessee Volunteers

Championship Odds: +1700

The Iowa State Cyclones lost All-American Joshua Jefferson before their Round of 32 game against Kentucky, but they dominated that game anyways, and Jefferson is expected to be back for this game. Despite being known for their defense, Iowa State’s offense has been pretty good this postseason, scoring 108 and 82 points in their first round tournament games. And with Jefferson back in the lineup, there’s no reason they can’t keep putting up big numbers.

Tennessee is a good team, but I think Iowa State is pretty clearly the favorite here. They’re much better offensively and defensively, and they’re a 2-seed for a reason. They’re not as good as the four teams above them, but when they’re rolling, they can beat anybody. They could win it all if they get hot.

4. (1) Duke Blue Devils

Sweet 16 Matchup: (5) St. John’s Red Storm

Championship Odds: +420

If Caleb Foster was playing and Patrick Ngongba was 100 percent, the Duke Blue Devils would easily be higher on this list. But they’re not, and Duke hasn’t looked like itself with those two injured, which was evident in their Round of 64 scare against 16-seed Siena.

Still, despite those injuries, Duke is back in the Sweet 16 and has a tough matchup against St. John’s ahead of them, but it’s one they should still win. Even with those two battling injuries, they’re a top-five defense in the country, and Cameron Boozer and Co. have been able to do enough offensively to get the job done. If Foster doesn’t play, this game could be very interesting, though. So keep an eye on his status as the game gets closer.

3. (2) Houston Cougars

Sweet 16 Matchup: (3) Illinois Fighting Illini

Championship Odds: +650

Kelvin Sampson has put together some really good teams during his time at Houston, and this year’s squad is certainly one of his best. They have the No. 1 scoring defense in the nation, giving up just 62.3 PPG, while their offense averages over 77 PPG. So far in the tournament, their opponents are averaging fewer than 55 PPG, but now they run into one of the most efficient offenses in the country in Illinois.

This should be a fantastic game. Illinois is capable of scoring a lot of points and being very efficient, but Houston’s defense will be their toughest test of the season so far. We’ve seen a lot of great teams run into Houston in the past and seemingly forget how to play basketball, so we’ll see if Illinois has an answer for Sampson’s defense.

2. (1) Michigan Wolverines

Sweet 16 Matchup: (4) Alabama Crimson Tide

Championship Odds: +290

Just two years ago, Dusty May led Florida Atlantic to the Final Four. Now, he’s trying to return to the Final Four in his second year with the Michigan Wolverines. Michigan has a case to be made for being the most talented team in the nation. They brought in an incredible portal haul, which included guys like Yaxel Lendeborg, Arda Mara and Morez Johnson. Unlike a lot of teams, Michigan’s offense runs through the post, with their top-three leading scorers being forwards or centers.

Their Sweet 16 matchup against Alabama will be fascinating. The Crimson Tide have the No. 1 offense in the country while Michigan has the No. 4 offense in the country. Alabama’s defense is significantly worse, but they’ve proven they can score against the best of them, so there’s no reason they shouldn’t be able to keep it close with Michigan. I think the Wolverines have the clear advantage here, but I don’t expect this game to be a blowout.

1. (1) Arizona Wildcats

Sweet 16 Matchup: (4) Arkansas Razorbacks

Championship Odds: +390

The Arizona Wildcats were my pick to win it all before the tournament started, and they’re still my pick today. They have cruised to the Sweet 16 after a couple of big wins in the first two rounds, and they are incredibly deep, with seven guys averaged 8+ PPG this season.

Their Sweet 16 matchup against Arkansas should be fun. The Razorbacks have an explosive offense that ranks 2nd in the nation, but Arizona’s isn’t far behind in 12th. I expect a lot of points to be put on the board, but Arizona’s depth and defense should prove to be too much for John Calipari’s team.