March Madness matchups don’t just define collegiate team supremacy; it also tests the mettle of coaching royalty. The Duke-St John’s Sweet 16 clash is one such in the cards. Two high-flying programs under Jon Scheyer and Rick Pitino will fight it out for one Elite Eight spot. But a Duke veteran’s recent bold claim, backed by a 13-year old validation, has raised St. John’s ceiling in this regard.

Speaking at the First Take Show with Stephen A. Smith,  former Duke player Jay Williams raised eyebrows while stating that he’s favoring Pitino and St. John to win the Duke game as well as the National Championship.

“I give St. John’s 50% chance of winning this whole thing,” Williams said. “Duke is a crazy game. Will you be surprised if St. John’s beats Duke? No. Patrick Ngongba is down; he comes back, not sure if he finds his win. I do think Duke is the favorite, but they (St. John’s) can win that game.”

Additionally, Williams gave St. John’s a clear roadmap to the National Championships and how they can be favorites to run deep in the tournament, especially given Pitino’s experience guiding mediocre three-point shooting teams (St. John’s is scoring 33.2% this season) like Louisville to the National Championship in the 2012-13 season.

“They beat UConn twice already. Now that will be a bloodbath,” Williams added. “I would love to see that game if that happens, Dan Hurley, Rick Pitino, but they have proven they can beat UConn. So, now you’re talking about them being in the Final Four. If they get to the Final Four, they met Houston, Illinois, Iowa, or Nebraska, and they can win that game.”

“So, now we’re talking about them being in a Championship game. The road is carving out itself, I mean, the last team to win a Championship and shoot under 34% in the three-point line, guess who that was? Louisville 2013. Guess who coached that team? Rick Pitino. That’s all I’m saying,” he added further.

For starters, Williams’ perspective on St. John’s might not be the favorite (ESPN gave the Blue Devils a 76.7% chance of winning), but it has some substance. In recent weeks, both Red Storm and Blue Devils have shown dominance, but Duke has been far less commanding. Remember the Siena game in the first round of March Madness? They avoided a major upset by a narrow 6-point win over the No. 16 Saints.

Duke’s injury scars have reduced a bit with Ngongba coming back to the squad. But questions about his flow and momentum will surely persist in these initial games after an injury. Against it, the Red Storm hasn’t missed a beat in their last stretch of games, downing teams like Northern Iowa as well as the Darryn Peterson-led Kansas in the second round of the March Madness.

Can they fare off against the Boozer-brothers, who have been literally carrying the team on their shoulders along with Isaiah Evans? The answer to this question could determine their results against Duke and, subsequently, their potential March Madness ceiling.

As Williams said, with the Florida Gators facing an upset at Iowa, the opportunities for St. John’s have increased beyond the half-court line. However, beating teams like UConn, Michigan State, and Illinois won’t be easy. There’s no doubt of Pitino’s prowess as a coach. His campaign with Louisville, of course, adds weight to his resume.

But even in that season, the only top-three seed his team faced was No. 2 Duke in the Elite Eight, while this season, several such teams will await them in almost every upcoming round of the tournament. Their recent improvement in a key metric, though, shows positive signs for Rick Pitino’s team in this regard.

Rick Pitino Expresses Excitement After His Team’s Key Strategic Win on the Court

Amid a turn of events, the Achilles Heel that has scarred St. John’s throughout the season saw them help close out a decisive March Madness second-round game. Three-point shooting just doesn’t go well with Rick Pitino’s program. The Red Storm has scored just over 32% this season, ranking them 223rd in the nation. But against the high-flying Kansas defense, it was the 11 precise from beyond the arc that helped St. John’s in a crucial win.

“This is gonna sound strange to you, but the last two games I told the team, the three-point line has to be the difference maker,” Pitino said in a post-game press conference. “We’re not a great three-point shooting team, but I told them, it’s going to have to have great disparity in both games for us to beat Kansas. So, tonight I think we made 11 three’s, 33 points to 15, that’s the difference maker.”

They scored 11 of 35 from the deep, which, on the surface, isn’t a good number for a team looking to make a deep March Madness run. But it’s the context that matters. The impressive 3-point shooting showed that St. John’s has the prowess to pull off such a performance against formidable top teams, too. Even individual performances add up in this regard.

The 11 successful three-pointers were driven largely by Bryce Hopkins, who scored 6 of 9 from the perimeter. Thus, with this newfound confidence, the three-point line can be a major decisive factor if they succeed in doubling down on this Kansas performance in the Duke game.

With the star-studded game set to tip off in a few days, who are you cheering for in this game? Do let us know in the comments.