As the NCAA tournament inches closer, doubts continue to grow around Duke. Once a firm favorite over the past couple of months, Jon Scheyer and Co. have become a team still finding its footing due to a lack of squad depth, and a recent explanation by a veteran analyst ahead of the Big Dance only adds to those concerns.

Speaking on the First Take program on March 19, veteran ESPN college basketball analyst Seth Greenberg said that the No. 1 seed Duke will be the first to get eliminated.

“How many No. 1 seeds lose two starters and make it to the Final Four? And how many of those programs, like Duke, are in a bracket that’s filled with tradition-rich programs and Hall of Fame coaches, and National Championship coaches?” Greenberg said.

“So, as much as I like the job Jon Scheyer is doing, and as much as Cayden Boozer who has stepped in and done a terrific job, and how I think Cameron Boozer is the most underappreciated player in college basketball, their bracket says with two players out and Cameron Boozer playing their backup point guard, that is the toughest bracket in all of college basketball. I’m not sure if Duke gets past either St. John’s or Kansas.”

Such a fate for the Blue Devils traces back to two notable recent injuries: Caleb Foster and Patrick Ngongba II. Ngongba, who brings physicality to the paint for Duke, is recovering well, as per reports. While the sophomore center won’t be available for the opening game against Siena, Jon Scheyer can expect him back as the tournament progresses.

Meanwhile, Foster’s fractured right foot appears to be a bit more serious, with an estimated timeline suggesting he won’t return until the tournament’s Final Four. These injuries to crucial players have put immense pressure on their talisman, Cameron Boozer, who now has to maintain the same level of efficiency on both sides of the court.

Boozer’s brother, Cayden, and Isaiah Evans have been the silver linings amid this turbulent period for Duke. They also combined to help Scheyer’s team win the ACC Championship, but March Madness do-or-die games against teams like St. John’s and Kansas will pose a different sort of challenge. The Red Storm under Rick Pitino has been all guns blazing this season, winning the Big East regular-season title and the Conference Championship, and blowing out UConn.

Meanwhile, the Jayhawks are drafting their own script. With the potential NBA top draft pick, Darryn Peterson, Kansas has been one of the most unpredictable teams in the Big East conference. Thus, facing these teams while dealing with injury woes will definitely take its toll. And as per the current scenario, that narrow margin between a win and defeat will eventually come down to Boozer.

Notably, Greenberg isn’t the first analyst to suggest that the injuries could scar Duke at March Madness. Former Duke veteran Jay Bilas echoed the same sentiment.

“Duke’s got a couple of injuries they’re dealing with right now, and I do think that, in all seriousness, they got the most difficult region. These are kind of flyers because I think this year is going to be different,” Bilas said, who is an ESPN analyst.

Moving on, the Blue Devils’ immediate challenge will be against the Siena Saints.

Jon Scheyer outlines the challenges of facing the Siena Saints in the first round

On the surface level, No. 16 Siena is miles away from Duke in terms of bench strength and historic legacy. In fact, under head coach Gerry McNamara, the Saints are making their first March Madness appearance in nearly 16 years. Quite naturally, the Blue Devils are expecting an easy win on March 19, with ESPN analytics also weighing in with a 99% chance in favor of Jon Scheyer’s team.

But the Duke head coach isn’t looking to underestimate any opponent, especially given that it’s led by a former NCAA champion and one of the most charismatic personalities of collegiate basketball, McNamara.

“You have to turn the page very quickly from the ACC Tournament to now, but our focus is on Siena, Gerry McNamara,” Scheyer said. “I’ve known G Mac for a long time. He’s a great coach. I think he’s done an incredible job with this team. They’re hard-nosed. They’re tough. They have great role identity. They play a very clear style. And we’re excited about this challenge and opportunity.”

The Siena Saints are quite a formidable side on defense, while their offense is largely driven by Gavin Doty, who’s averaging over 17 points per game this season. McNamara’s team’s defense, led by Justice Shoats and Francis Folefac, has given up just 65.7 points per game this season. Thus, in all scenarios, this will be a good challenge for Scheyer’s team to address before the attention turns to the likes of Kansas and St. John’s in the upcoming rounds.

What are your expectations for the Duke Blue Devils in this March Madness? Can Scheyer lead his team one step further than he did last season, or will Seth Greenberg’s projections come true? Do let us know in the comments.