Sometimes belief inside a locker room matters more than predictions outside it. And for head coach Jan Jensen, that belief has carried the Iowa Hawkeyes further than many expected in the 2025-26 NCAA season.

On Saturday, the No. 9-ranked Hawkeyes proved that again by defeating the Michigan Wolverines (59–42) in the Big Ten Tournament semifinals. The win sends the Hawkeyes into the Championship game with a chance to capture one of the most prestigious conference titles in women’s college basketball.

After the game, coach Jensen revealed her message to the team. “I told them I was just so grateful. I said, we’re at a spot now where nobody in the country thought we’d be, except the people in that huddle. Because no one really predicted that we could be there,” Jan Jensen said.

The Iowa coach continued by reminding her players that their success wasn’t the result of luck but months of hard work that began long before the season started.

“For us to be here and to have this moment, after some time, people think, ‘Oh, how they get Michigan? Was that lucky?’ and that’s what I challenged with our team. I said, ‘You guys aren’t lucky you’ve been working.’ I said, ‘But we got to show it. No one’s going to give it to you.’ So I just told them to enjoy it and to know that this circle believed. And now we get a shot at the finals of one of the most prestigious conferences in America. And I’m so so grateful,” she added.

Much of the Hawkeyes’ rise this season has been powered by one of the most promising young groups.

Sophomore Ava Heiden led the team with 16 points, while Hannah Stuelke and Chazadi Wright added 13 points apiece. Iowa outscored Michigan 24–6 in the fourth quarter to seal the win.

Stuelke also recorded a double-double with 10 rebounds and sparked the decisive stretch early in the final period. She scored seven points in the first 2:23 of the quarter to give Iowa a 42–38 advantage, igniting a 15–2 run that put the game out of reach. This trio has quietly become the backbone of Iowa’s season.

Their latest win was historic as well. The Iowa Hawkeyes limited an AP Top-10 opponent to its fewest points in a Big Ten Conference tournament game since the Indiana Hoosiers held the Purdue Boilermakers to 41 points in the 2002 semifinals.

However, with the championship game looming, the Iowa Hawkeyes must quickly shift their focus to the final hurdle that stands between them and the conference title.

What’s next for Jan Jensen and the Hawkeyes?

The Big Ten Tournament championship game is all set to take place on March 8 at Gainbridge Fieldhouse. And it features a matchup between two of the strongest teams in the nation. The No. 2 seed Iowa Hawkeyes will face the top-ranked UCLA Bruins, with both teams chasing the conference title.

The Bruins enter the matchup with a perfect 18–0 conference record, led by Lauren Betts, the Big Ten Player of the Year and Big Ten Defensive Player of the Year, whose dominance in the paint makes her one of the toughest matchups in the country. Meanwhile, Iowa arrives with a young core that has been central to their surge.

The outcome of this game will ultimately depend on who controls the paint. While UCLA has dominated that area throughout this season, Heiden’s recent form suggests Iowa may be better equipped to challenge Betts this time around.

Jan Jensen’s squad has already faced the Bruins once this season and lost by 23 points. That 23-point loss came early in the conference schedule when the new-look Hawkeyes were still finding their identity.

However, having limited the Wolverines to one of their lowest scores, they will carry that momentum into their matchup with the Bruins.

Our final score prediction: UCLA 76, Iowa 71.