For most programs, alumni predictions often instill a sense of confidence and comfort among them, but for Jon Scheyer and the Duke Blue Devils, it turned out exactly the opposite after Selection Sunday.

Jay Bilas, a former player and an assistant coach for the Duke Blue Devils, revealed why he didn’t choose Duke as a potential Final Four team for the 2026 March Madness. Per his projections, Michigan State will defeat Duke in their regional, leading to the Spartans, Florida, Arizona, and Iowa State qualifying for the Final Four.

“I picked Duke last year and was correct,” Bilas said. “Duke’s got a couple of injuries they’re dealing with right now, and I do think that, in all seriousness, they got the most difficult region. These are kind of flyers because I think this year is going to be different. I don’t think it’s as chalky.”

“Michigan State’s really experienced, and I kind of went with that even though Duke is a better team. If it were seven games series, I’d take Duke and Michigan to win their regions, but it’s not. It’s a one-game and out thing.”

Bilas’ bracket predictions have been highly precise of late. Last season, the veteran analyst predicted a Final Four defeat for the Blue Devils at the hands of Houston before the tournament. As reality set in, Duke suffered a close 70-67 defeat. Thus, with Bilas’ prediction going against them in this season, Duke isn’t in great company right ahead of their tournament tip-off.

Injuries have been the team’s Achilles’ Heel of late, even coming close to scarring them in the ACC quarterfinals against Florida State. With Patrick Ngongba II and Caleb Foster out, their bench strength isn’t just limited; it’s part of a bigger issue.

Both Foster and Ngongba are two of the most crucial players on the rotation. Their two-way expertise on the court frees up Cameron Boozer and Esaiah Evans, thereby significantly boosting their offensive flow and rim protection. In their absence, players like Cayden Boozer have contributed significantly, but the same level of physicality that Ngongba brings is what Duke is currently missing.

On the other hand, their projected Elite Eight opponent, Michigan State, has been quite formidable in its own right. The Spartans have been impressive in spurts this season, though their record might suggest a bit more consistency at times. Led by Jeremy Fears Jr., the team will be one of the teams to beat for Scheyer’s team in the Elite Eight.

But on the contrary, Duke’s injury situation is improving right ahead of March Madness. In his latest update, Jon Scheyer has confirmed that Ngongba will not play in the tournament-opener against Siena, while Foster won’t be available until Duke proves Bilas wrong and reaches the March Madness Final Four. “He’s been progressing as we’ve gotten closer to tomorrow. I think it’s very unlikely that he plays tomorrow. We’re taking it day by day. He’s itching to play,” Scheyer said.

With all these struggles and a bracket where they might face Kansas/St. John’s, Michigan State, their road to the Final Four and the National Championships is an uphill job. But against all odds, the Duke head coach is manifesting and hoping.

Jon Scheyer Focused on Achieving the Trophy That His Team Missed Last Season

At this point, Duke’s 2025-26 season has been the mirror image of last year. ACC regular-season champions and ACC Tournament champions, the Blue Devils have reaped all the success they have had in the conference. The only title missing from their trophy case was the National Championships, which Scheyer wants to win this time around with his team.

Scheyer clarified in a press conference ahead of the Siena game that his only motivation at this point with Duke is to improve and get better. And the only way they can improve from last season in terms of titles is by winning the National Championships. “I’ve used year one, year two, year three, all in different ways to continue to get better, to continue to grow, and to continue to use that as motivation,” Scheyer said in his press conference.

So last year’s no different. We had a special group, put ourselves in the exact spot you want to be in, couldn’t get it done. That’s unfortunately part of how this thing goes. So we’re back and ready to keep going in this,” he added further.

But as mentioned earlier, the tough bracket and the injury nemesis will give Scheyer and co. the challenges they need. But with the likes of a cheat code like Cameron Boozer in the mix, there’s no restriction on their ceiling this season. For now, their utmost attention is on the Siena game on March 19 at the Bon Secours Wellness Arena. With the recent performances the Blue Devils are putting in this season, they are firmly expected to win this game.

A positive go-ahead in this game will put Jon Scheyer’s team against the winner of TCU-Ohio State in the second round of March Madness. All in all, it would be interesting to see whether Scheyer’s aspiration to win the National Championships as Duke’s head coach comes to fruition or if Jay Bilas’ predictions come true again.